Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Sunday, September 29th.
The Group 1 Underwood Stakes headlines the meeting, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail out 6m.
The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the true position.
Caulfield Racing Tips: Sunday, September 29th
Best Bet: Race 5 - (3) Dalasan
Best Value: Race 8 - (2) Brave Song & (12) Renewal
Open race to kick things off. Interested in (8) Tysonic each way with the blinkers and tongue tie both going on for the first time. She comes out of a strong race behind Tides and Oceanex and should improve up to 1800m second up here with the gear changes. The query is the lack of tempo in the race because she'll likely have to come from well off the speed. (7) Camelle was very good at huge odds first up behind My Pendant, before a midfield finish in Group 2 company last start. Third up today, Damian Lane goes on and the way she's going, she'll be hard to hold out.
This is a cracker of a race, with any number of winning hopes. With that, there's plenty of value in the market. (5) Petrelle is undefeated first up from a spell from three attempts. She resumes here with Craig Williams booked to ride from a good gate. Last time we saw her she won over 1200m here from a wid gate, so she should be very hard to beat. (6) Algadon Miss is flying with consecutive wins leading into this. She's failed in her previous two attempts at this track and distance but both were on wet ground. She's 3/3 on Good tracks so from the inside gate she should once again be in the finish. (9) Victory Kingdom had no luck whatsoever at the Valley last time out, held up until the 100m mark. Drawn a bit sticky but she's got the ability to win. Chances don't end there but those are the three I'll be backing, at around $6, $7 and $8 respectively.
Another very open race. I'll be taking on the favourite (4) Qafila. She drops out of Group 1 company where she had a torrid run throughout the race, but her third up record isn't good and she looks short enough in the market to me. (1) Kiwia is a talented horse on his day. Forget his run first up when he was checked at the 100m mark and should have finished within a few lengths of the winner. He carries top weight and draws poorly here but he's probably a bit better than a $26 chance. (2) Order Again goes on top. He had a nice cleanout first up in Brisbane and comes here second up. He's had four top-two finishes from five starts when second up. From the good draw he should be running well here at a good each way price. (3) Plein Ciel has a terrific record here at Caulfield with four wins from five starts but he might just need the run first up. (14) Starouz isn't hopeless.
(2) Rox The Castle was a last-start winner in Listed company over this distance at Flemington. He should be able to jump to the lead from the insie gate and he'll take plenty of catching. His record at this distance is outstanding. (1) Mahamedeis improved as expected second up and just happened to bump into Group 1 winner Homesman. His third up record is good but the concern is the drop back from 1400m to 1600m. He should still run well but I'd be more keen if he stayed at the mile or was up in trip. (6) Inn Keeper showed big signs of improvement last start. He's third up now and has won two of his three previous third up starts.
Value: (1) Mahamedeis $9.00 & (6) Inn Keeper $10
Not sure how they beat (3) Dalasan. He beat subsequent Group 1 winner Scales Of Justice first up in Adelaide and then came to Melbourne and was again impressive, beating Dubious by 0.75L over 1200m. Up to 1400m today but that doesn't look a problem given he was pulling away on the line last start. Drawn well and should prove too strong once again.
This one is a bit more of a guessing game. (3) Flit has been marked down as a horse to follow since last preparation and she resumed with a 2L defeat to Libertini. That form obviously looks pretty strong for a race like this in Melbourne. Libertini came out after that and went to the line locked together with Funstar and Probabeel, so the form has stacked up. Flit should be better second up today and the only negative for her is the barrier, which makes things tricky. (6) Missile Mantra probably should have won last start. She's had little luck in her first two runs back from a spell. She's drawn a touch wide again today but if they can get her into clear running rather than run up backsides then she'll charge home late. (1) Lyre looks a reasonable price at $7.00. Third up, ran well last start behind a smart winner and obviously isn't short of quality. Big field here with plenty of unexposed horses so it's a tricky race.
Race 7 - Group 1 Underwood Stakes (Market)
Three that I'm mainly interested in here for the Group 1 Underwood Stakes. (8) Homesman is a pretty clear top pick. He resumed in dominant style winning the G2 Feehan Stakes at Moonee Valley by 2.5L. He's won two of his three starts when second up from a spell and his one start at this track and distance was last year's Underwood Stakes, which he won. He looks to be going even better than he was last year so that makes him very hard to beat. (12) The Chosen One battled on well behind Homesman in the Feehan Stakes, beaten just under 3L in 5th. He sat three-wide without cover throughout the race so it was a good effort all things considered. He was a Group 3 winner over 2000m in Sydney during the Autumn and he's got a good second up record so from the good draw he looks a good value chance at $11. Damian Lane jumps off Humidor to ride him. (13) Kenedna should be better suited third up with the rise in trip. I won't be losing on her at $13.
Value: (12) The Chosen One $11 & (13) Kenedna $13
Really good race! The speed of the race should be fascinating with both (9) Zoustyle and (15) Special Reward involved. Zoustyle drops out of a hot G3 race behind the likes of Redzel and Pierata, while Special Reward has won six of his nine starts in WA and makes his Melbourne debut today. If they take each other on up front it could be set up for something coming from the back and that something could be (2) Brave Song. He's drawn wide in barrier 13 so will end up toward the rear of the field but he flies fresh and should be swooping home hard late in the race. He's a great each way price today. (11) Haunted ran 2nd to Begood Toya Mother last start and that form obviously looks pretty strong now. (12) Renewal is another horse that flies fresh. He's won three of his four starts when first up and has won three from five at the distance. He's drawn wide too but I'll be backing him at $8.50. (14) Parsifal was good first up and has a strong second up record. He's not without claims. Plenty of chances here! Brave Song and Renewal the two for me at $9.00 and $8.50.
Also backing: (12) Renewal $8.50
He's drawn poorly but (17) Harbour Views should prove too good for this lot. It doesn't look a necessarily strong field on paper so if he produces anything close to what he's capable of first up today then he should continue his undefeated start to his career. Just needs a good ride. (6) Grinzinger Star looks the logical danger, while it will be interesting to see how (19) Blenders Edition measures up in his first start for the new stable.
