AFL Round 4 begins on Thursday night with a blockbuster clash at the home of footy between Collingwood and Carlton. The Magpies are 2-1 and fresh off their early bye, while the Blues are one of three clubs still winless in 2025. We nailed 5/8 of our tips last round for +4.03 units, and we’re back with a full game preview and tips for the Magpies vs Blues below!
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Collingwood vs Carlton
Location: MCG – Melbourne
Date: Thursday, 3rd April
Time: 7:30pm AEDT
Odds: Collingwood ($1.50) vs Carlton ($2.60)
Line: Collingwood -12.5
Points: 170.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Dabble. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
Collingwood and Carlton kick off Round 4 on Thursday night at the MCG in what should be a massive clash between two of the AFL’s biggest rivals. A bumper crowd is expected, and with both teams having plenty to prove, this one should have plenty of feeling. The Magpies have made a solid start to the season, sitting 6th on the ladder at 2-1, while the Blues are one of three teams yet to win a game, sitting 0-3 and third last. Collingwood are coming off a bye, so they should be fresh and ready to go, while Carlton will be desperate to turn things around after another frustrating loss last week.
The Magpies’ last game was a hard-fought six-point win over the Bulldogs, making it two in a row for them. They should have won by more but were wasteful in front of goal. That said, they’ve been one of the better teams when it comes to forward efficiency, ranking 4th in the AFL for scores per inside 50 and 5th for scores off turnover. Their ball movement has been slick, and they know how to punish mistakes, which could be a big factor in this one. With the extra week off to fine-tune things, they’ll be confident they can keep their winning streak going.
Carlton’s last outing also came against the Bulldogs, but they fell short by eight points despite leading by three goals at half-time. Slow finishes have been a huge problem for them, with fourth-quarter fade-outs costing them every game so far. They’ve been outscored by 13, 15, and 10 points in final terms this season, which doesn’t bode well against a side like Collingwood that thrives in the late stages of games. The Blues’ biggest issue, though, has been their inefficiency inside forward 50. They rank dead last in the comp for scores per inside 50 and sit in the bottom four for scores off turnover, showing they’re struggling to convert chances and make opponents pay for mistakes. If they don’t fix that, it’s hard to see them troubling the Pies.
Both teams are in decent shape injury-wise, though Carlton will again be without Harry McKay and Elijah Hollands, who are both away from the club for personal reasons. Meanwhile, Collingwood have a strong squad available, giving them yet another advantage. The recent history between these two sides is also heavily in the Magpies’ favour. They’ve won 10 of the last 12 meetings and both clashes last season. They’ve also won their last six games at the MCG, while the Blues have lost four straight at the venue and are 0-2 there this year.
It’s hard to go past Collingwood in this one. They’re the better side in key areas, particularly in forward efficiency and scoring off turnover, and they’ve had Carlton’s measure for years. The Blues will need a much better four-quarter effort and have to make the most of their chances if they want to cause an upset. If they don’t, the Magpies should be making it three wins in a row and leaving Carlton still searching for their first win of the season.
Collingwood -12.5
$1.91 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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To follow our multi, just click on the BoomBet BetShare button below and our same game multi selections will be added straight into your bet slip on BoomBet. You can then enter how much you wish to wager, and with a single click, your bet has been placed!
Charlie Curnow 2+ Goals – Was much better in his second game of the season compared to the first, kicking three goals against the Bulldogs. He likes the matchup against the Magpies and even had a bag of six against them in 2023.
Josh Daicos 25+ Disposals – His move to half back has seen an uptick in his touches. He’s reached the 25 disposal mark on all three occasions this season and remains good value.
Steele Sidebottom 20+ Disposals – Has been spending a lot of time in the midfield in 2025 and has had 31 and 22 disposals in his last two. Happy to be on again here.
SGM Odds: $3.50 at BoomBet
