The traditional ANZAC Day fixture starts action on Friday, with 3 blockbuster games on show. NRL fans will be excited with the prospect of 6 hours of rugby league. Both teams will be desperate to find victory and will be out to prove themselves worthy of a higher place on the competition ladder. Don’t forget to head to our NRL tips page for more previews, analysis and betting tips for every NRL match of every round!
Sydney Roosters vs St George-Illawarra Dragons
Location: Allianz Stadium
Date: 25th April
Time: 4pm (AEST)
Odds: Roosters $1.73 vs Dragons $2.10
Line: Roosters -2.5
Points: 45.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
The Roosters were unable to repeat their Round 2 drubbing of the Panthers last week, comprehensively defeated 40-12 by a superior team. Despite scoring the first try and only trailing 12-6 at HT, they could not compete with their opponents. They were held to just 7.9m per carry; with only 46% possession and 36 missed tackles, it was always going to be a challenge for them to chase points.
The Dragons had no such issues in their 20-18 win over the Sea Eagles on the road. In a dull affair, the Dragons grinded out a positive victory, combating inferior possession (47%) and a poor completion rate (75%) by averaging 9.9m per carry and missing just 18 tackles. It is a rinse and repeat each week and despite being somewhat lucky, can take away positives from that match.
The form of each team suggests the Dragons are unlucky to be listed as outsiders. They have had two more victories, have a superior attacking record (17ppg vs 23ppg) and defensive record (28ppg vs 19ppg). The Dragons have faced ‘easier’ opponents compared to the Roosters, so perhaps these are skewed somewhat. History suggests the home side are deserving favourites. They have won 4 out of the past 5 games against the Dragons and 5 out of the past 6 ANZAC Day matches. Their record at home is far superior (64% vs 39%), with 3 of their past 5 victories by 28+ points. The defensive structure and performance of the Dragons indicates they are ready to overcome this; there has been efforts this year showing what they are capable of. Two key inclusions of Smith and Crichton enhance the Roosters chances in what looks set to be a close match.
The preferred option here is to invest on the line; while the Dragons are a genuine chance, greater consistency is needed from them against quality opponents before confidence is enhanced. This is a great opportunity, but it also means that the Roosters are capable to overcome what their opponents deliver.
Roosters -2.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Total Points Over 45.5 – the average total in the past 5 games is 62.2 points. It will be a grinding match early but the trend recently in these fixtures is for a high scoring contest.
Leg 2: Roosters to score the most tries – they have a knack of scoring plenty, whereas the Dragons rely more on their goal kicking to boost their total.
Leg 3: Nawaqanitawase to score – despite only scoring two tries this season, he moves to the wing this weekend, giving him a greater chance to be the ‘finisher’ in attacking plays. He is also a strong threat in the air to score.
SGM Odds: $5.00 at BoomBet
