AFL Round 6 concludes with an Easter Monday blockbuster between Geelong and Hawthorn at the MCG. Both sides have been in excellent form, and this game looks set to be a belter between two premiership contenders. We bring you our full betting preview for the game below!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2025 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
Geelong vs Hawthorn
Location: MCG – Melbourne
Date: Monday, 21st April
Time: 3:20pm AEST
Odds: Geelong ($1.85) vs Hawthorn ($1.95)
Line: Geelong -4.5
Points: 170.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Dabble. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
Geelong produced a brilliant second half performance to run over the top of Adelaide, turning a five goal deficit into a three goal victory. Geelong kicked 13 of the last 18 goals, led by brilliant fourth quarter performances by Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron.
Cameron kicked 3 of his 4 goals in the fourth quarter, while Dangerfield kicked the first two goals of the final quarter to give Geelong the lead.
Bailey Smith (35 disposals, 1 goal) and Max Holmes (32 disposals, 1 goal) continued their excellent form with massive contributions all over the ground.
Hawthorn suffered a brutal reality check against Port Adelaide, losing their first game of 2025. Port Adelaide flew out to a 71 point lead in the first half, as the Hawks produced a surprisingly horrendous performance.
Remarkably the Hawks kicked 11 goals to 6 in the second half and looked like they could run over the top of Port, however it was too little, too late for Sam Mitchell’s side.
Geelong have done an outstanding job at controlling the ground game this season. The Cats rank 2nd for contested possessions, 3rd for ground ball gets, 2nd for forward 50 ground ball gets, and 2nd for post clearance ground ball gets. As soon as the ball hits the ground, Geelong gets to work, and Hawthorn will need to be good in this area if they are to win this game.
A big factor for Hawthorn in the clash will be their work from centre clearances and kick ins. The Hawks rank number one in the AFL for scores from centre bounces (19.2) and scores from kick ins (8.8). If the Hawks can generate scores from these sources, it will hold them in good stead.
Geelong have generated the majority of their scores from front half turnovers. The Cats rank 3rd in the completion for scores from turnover (58.6) and 3rd for scores from forward half (48.2). Against Adelaide Geelong were at their very best in these areas, scoring 75 points from turnover and 63 points from the forward half.
The blueprint was laid by Port Adelaide that showed fragilities in both of these areas for Hawthorn. The Hawks conceded 60 points from turnover and 80 points from the forward half last week. If the Cats can close down Hawthorn’s ball users in defence and generate forward half turnovers, they’re going to be hard to beat.
Geelong’s scoring profile is more sustainable than the Hawks, particularly given that it is likely it will rain during Monday’s clash. Their ability to lock the ball in their forward half and generate scores will be the difference in this clash. The Cats have won five of their last six games against the Hawks, and will continue that strong record over their rivals.
Geelong to Win
$1.85 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Throughout the 2025 AFL season we’ll be putting together a fun same game multi for every match at BoomBet using their BetShare feature.
To follow our multi, just click on the BoomBet BetShare button below and our same game multi selections will be added straight into your bet slip on BoomBet. You can then enter how much you wish to wager, and with a single click, your bet has been placed!
Bailey Smith 25+ Disposals: Smith has thrived since joining Geelong, starring with a consistent role as an inside midfielder. Smith is averaging 30 disposals per game this season and has hit the 25+ disposal mark in all four of his games in 2025.
Max Holmes 25+ Disposals: After being tagged against Melbourne, Holmes produced a stellar performance against the Crows, picking up 32 disposals. Holmes ranks third in centre bounce attendances for Geelong this season, and like Smith is thriving with a greater role.
Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals: Newcombe has been one of the Hawks most consistent players this season, hitting the 25+ disposal mark in 3 of his last 4 games, including a 29 disposal performance last week.
Tyson Stengle Anytime Goalscorer: Tyson Stengle has 7 goals from 5 games this season, and has enjoyed playing Hawthorn, kicking 7 goals in his last 4 games against the Hawthorn.
SGM Odds: $4.00 at BoomBet
