The Eels look to get off the mark in 2025 as they head to Fortress Brookvale to take on the Sea Eagles, who are fresh off a massive win over the Raiders. Despite this, the news has all been off the field this week for the Sea Eagles, with the Daly Cherry-Evans news clogging up the headlines. Will this take the Sea Eagles’ minds off the game, or will it steal them for one last crack at a Premiership with their champion halfback? Either way, they should be far too good for the Eels at home, but let’s find some value.
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Manly Sea Eagles vs Parramatta Eels
Location: 4 Pines Park – Brookvale
Date: Sunday, 30th March
Time: 4:05pm AEDT
Odds: Sea Eagles ($1.14) vs Eels ($5.75)
Line: Sea Eagles -18.5
Points: 54.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
We faded the Sea Eagles last week with no Trbojevic, and that was definitely the wrong call, as the Sea Eagles dominated the Raiders 40-12. The difference between performances over the opening three weeks of the competition must be somewhat concerning for Head Coach Anthony Seibold, but they have looked unbeatable at Brookvale so far this season, winning both their games at home by 28+ points.
The Eels have been the worst team in the NRL so far this season, and it’s hard to find many positives from the situation. The losses of Clint Gutherson and Reagan Campbell-Gillard have clearly hurt the team, as has the early season injury to star halfback Mitch Moses. Last week they showed some fight against the Bulldogs, however the Dogs were missing several players, and given the ball the Eels had, they should have scored more than 8 points. A trip across the Spit Bridge won’t be easy, and the Eels could be in for a long afternoon.
These teams met twice last season, with the Eels closing 1.5-point home favourites in round 3, with the total closing 44.5. It looked like it was going to be a bloodbath for the Eels, as the Sea Eagles shot out of the gate to lead 16-0 after 13 minutes. But that’s where it ended, as the Eels then put on five tries to Manly’s one over the next 60 minutes, to race home 28-24. They next met in round 8 at 4 Pines Park, with the Sea Eagles this time going off as 12.5-point home favourites, with a total of 48.5. It was a tight first half, with two late tries garnering the Eels a 14-6 lead, but a four tries to one second half to the Sea Eagles got them home comfortably, 32-18.
This week, the Sea Eagles were slated as 12.5-point favourites on the look ahead, before re-opening as massive 18.5-point favourites. This is the third highest spread of the season, and it’s hard to argue with the way the Sea Eagles have played at home. I make the Sea Eagles slightly below 18.5-point favourites, but there’s no way I can bet on the Eels right now.
The total was 53.5 on the look ahead, before re-opening 55.5, where it still sits at most books. I make a fair total 56, so again I don’t see a tonne of value here, and I do not trust the Eels to score their share. And that’s where I’m going to pivot here and look towards a team total over for the Sea Eagles. Currently their team total is in the mid 30’s, and I believe anything under 37.5 is worth a play. I predict 36 points on average for the Sea Eagles and add in a couple extra points for their form at Brookvale, and the over is a good shout here.
Sea Eagles Team Total) Over 34.5
$1.80 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Sea Eagles (13+) – As above, I like the Sea Eagles to dominate this matchup, and should win by a minimum of 13 points.
Leg 2: Jason Saab (1+ try) – With Turbo back in the team, expect Saab to once again be breaking the line for fun. A try is almost inevitable.
Leg 3: Zac Lomax (1+ try) – Zero tries in three games, but Lomax went looking for the ball a lot more last week, running for over 300 metres, breaking 9 tackles, and busting the line once. Surely the Eels’ X-Factor is due a four pointer.
SGM Odds: $7.50 at BoomBet
