Whilst we saw plenty of blowouts in the first week of the NFL Playoffs, this weekend is where the top teams start playing one another, with the Divisional Round often referred to as the best weekend of the NFL Season. With just 8 teams left, and just 7 games to be played, this is where the rubber meets the road, with the winners this weekend meeting next week to battle for a place in the Super Bowl. Plenty on the line then, and I am very excited to get amongst it.
Below, we will dissect the matchups, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our Best Bet, and Prop Bets for each and every game this weekend. Make sure you are following Before You Bet, as we will have dedicated Match Previews for every playoff game, right up to and including Super Bowl LIX on Monday 10th of February. In Wild Card weekend, we managed a 7-5 record for +3.79 units, so hopefully you all got on board!
NFL 2024-25: Divisional Round Betting Tips
Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Sunday 19th January, 8:30am (AEDT)
The Chiefs and Texans met less than a month ago, with the Chiefs hosting the Texans in week 16 of the NFL regular season. The Chiefs closed 3.5-point home favourites; however, I don’t believe this line was indicative of the matchup. This was due to the fact Patrick Mahomes was in severe doubt all week with an ankle injury, highlighted by the fact the Texans opened 2.5-point favourites on the road. Of course, Mahomes eventually played, and didn’t miss a beat as the Chiefs won comfortably 27-19. Stroud was picked on the first, and last drives of the first half, which ultimately cost the Texans any chance at winning. The total for this one closed 43 and seemed a pretty good total.
Heading into Divisional Round, and the Chiefs were slated as 7.5-point home favourites on the hypothetical lines last week, before opening as 8-point favourites once this matchup was confirmed. The Chiefs have been bet out to 8.5-point favourites, and with my number for the Chiefs -8.1, I don’t see a tonne of value, particularly with the Chiefs off the bye. I would lean towards the Chiefs to cover the spread, but it would be a small bet.
Looking at the total, it opened 42.5, which is where we saw the total on the hypothetical markets. It has been bet down slightly to 41.5 but is still north of the key number of 41. I make a fair total 43, so see a little bit of value in the over, but not enough to make a play. It is the Chiefs’ offense where I will put my faith this week, and specifically in the first half. I can see the Chiefs coming out of the gates quickly in the first half here, and like them to go over their team total in the first half.
Prop wise, and I will take Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown to go over his receiving yard total, which is currently set in the high 30’s. Brown has been held to a snap count in his two games since returning from injury, and despite this he has still be targeted heavily. In just 20 snaps against the Texans in week 16, he had 8 targets, 5 receptions, and 45 yards. Brown should see more snaps, which should see his targets remaining high.
Prop Bet
Marquise Brown (over) 39.5 receiving yards - $1.90 at Bet365 (1.5u)
Chiefs (1st half team total) over 13.5 points
$1.95 (2 Units)
Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders
Ford Field, Sunday 19th January, 12:00pm (AEDT)
The Lions and Commanders last met in week 2 of the 2022 NFL regular season, with the Lions winning 36-27. I will take nothing from this game when handicapping this weekend’s game, as the Commanders are almost unrecognisable from the 2022 squad, both on the field and in the coaches box.
The Lions enjoyed the week off last weekend after earning the bye as the NFC number 1 seed. It was a well needed rest for the Lions, who will still be without plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball for this weekend’s game.
The Commanders managed to squeak by the Bucs on the road 23-20, in easily the best game of Wild Card Weekend. Jayden Daniels showed that he belongs in the NFL and was not overawed by the occasion. This week is a massive step up in class, however the Commanders know they have their franchise quarterback going forward, regardless of the result this week.
Speaking of this week, the Lions were posted as 8.5-point favourites on the hypothetical lookahead line, before re-opening at the same price. Early money came in on the Lions, pushing this to 10 at some places, before buy back on the Commanders came in. The Lions currently sit as 9/9.5-point favourites, which is a premium on my fair of 7.5. It’s hard to go against the Lions in this spot though, with the extra rest and the home field advantage they will enjoy. The Commanders are also coming off a Sunday Night game, before having to back it up here on Saturday night, in what will be their 3rd straight road game. Lean towards the Lions here at anything under 10.
The total opened a massive 55.5, which is the equal second largest total of the season, with the week 18 game between the Vikings and Lions (56.5) the only total to close higher. It’s very hard to get a number anywhere close to this total, however much like the Bills game with the Lions a few weeks ago that also closed 55.5, it’s impossible to bet the under here. It might be something I look to bet in game if the Lions defence shows up early, as any in game total will be tied to the pre-game close.
Props is where this game gets interesting, with a total of 55.5 it is anticipated that yards will be made. I like a lot of the props, including Jayden Daniels over rushing yards (54.5), Amon-Ra St. Brown over 100 receiving yards at $3.30, Terry McLaurin over 67.5 receiving yards, and Jayden Daniels over 236.5 passing yards. But my favourite is the Jahmyr Gibbs receiving yards over. Gibbs’ number has dropped significantly due to the return of David Montgomery, but this doesn’t matter at all, as Montgomery doesn’t take any targets away from Gibbs. Gibbs can get this in one play, and I love the over here.
Prop Bet
Jahmyr Gibbs (25+) receiving yards - $1.92 at Old Gill (2u)
Detroit Lions -8.5
$1.95 (1.5 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams
Lincoln Financial Field, Monday 20th January, 7:00am (AEDT)
The Eagles and Rams last met in week 12 this season, with the Eagles travelling to LA as 2.5-point road favourites on Sunday Night Football, with a total of 48.5. The Eagles utterly dominated the Rams, with Saquon Barkley putting together one of the games of the season, as he ran for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns, whilst also piling up 47 receiving yards, for a total output of 302 yards from scrimmage. To put this in perspective, the Rams managed 290 total yards as a TEAM. A truly dominant performance from Barkley.
Last week, the Eagles were the most disappointing team of the four winners in my opinion. Their defence was solid against the Packers; however, they were bailed out by four Green Bay turnovers that really prevented the Packers from having any chance at victory. The Eagles offense though, was horrific. Not only did Saquon Barkley struggle for most of the game, but Jalen Hurts was horrible, going 13-21 and 131 yards. Massive improvement needed this week, against a Rams team who were tremendous last week against the Vikings. The Rams defence was elite, sacking Sam Darnold 9 times, whilst the Rams offense did enough in the early part of the game to allow them to lean on the run game in the second half.
This week, the Eagles were 6.5-point favourites at open, before Rams money came in early and pushed it down to 6. I have the Eagles as 5.5-point favourites, however this could easily be bumped up to 6 with a little more home field advantage for the playoffs, as the Linc is one of the best home field advantages in the league. However, I like the Rams to cover the spread here. I did not like what I saw at all from the Eagles in the wild card game on offense, and unless Saquon Barkley can just shred this Rams defence again, I think the Rams can keep this close. And in a tight spot in the playoffs, I’ll take Stafford and McVay over Hurts and Sirianni. The loss of Nakobe Dean also hurts the Eagles, as he is the quarterback for their defence. With the Rams utilising the most pre-snap motion in the NFL, the Eagles will be struggling to keep up.
Looking at the total, it opened 46.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening at 45.5. I fully agreed with this, as my fair total sat at 44, which is exactly where the total has been bet down to. Both teams will lean on their defences in this game and would not be surprised to see this as the lowest scoring game of the weekend. Lean the under here.
Props wise, it’s hard to go past Saquon, however with his rushing yards total all the way up at 111.5, it is somewhat game state dependent. If the Rams start quickly, which I think they can do, the Eagles will be chasing, which could hurt Barkley’s output. Instead, I’m going for A.J. Brown to have a big game and go over his receiving yard total, which is as low as it’s been all season. Brown was seen reading a book on the sideline during the game last week, came out after the game and was once again outspoken about the passing game, and has been linked with a trade. Whenever Brown makes noise, the Eagles seem to listen and feed him the ball the following week. Brown should eat again here, after going for 109 yards in the week 12 game with the Rams.
Prop Bet
A.J. Brown (over) 69.5 receiving yards - $1.90 at Bet365 (1.5u)
LA Rams +6.5
$1.93 (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens
Highmark Stadium, Monday 20th January, 10:30am (AEDT)
Save the best til’ last as they say, and this is definitely the best game of the week on paper, and possibly the game of the year. These two teams are the highest rated teams in my power ratings, and both are capable of winning the Super Bowl this season. Sadly, for one of these awesome teams, their season will end this weekend.
The Ravens and Bills met all the way back in week 4 this season, with the Ravens closing 3-point favourites at home, and the total closing 47.5. The Ravens shot out of the gate, with their defence shutting the Bills down on their first drive, before an 87-yard Derrick Henry touchdown run set the table for the rest of the game. The Bills were never allowed back into the game, with the Ravens scoring on all three of their opening drives to lead 21-3. King Henry was immense, rushing for 199 yards and a touchdown, as the Ravens made a statement at home, winning 35-10.
Fast forward to the Divisional Round, and the Bills were 1.5-point favourites on the hypothetical lookahead line, before re-opening short 1-point home favourites. It didn’t take long for Ravens backers to show their support, as the Ravens were quickly backed into favouritism, as they currently sit as 1-point road favourites. I have the Bills as short 1-point favourites; however, I agree with the move to put the Ravens as the favourites here. Lamar and the Ravens seem to be as good as ever, and I don’t trust Sean McDermott in a huge spot here to make the right decisions at the right time. Ravens to win for mine.
Looking towards the total, and it opened 52.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening 51.5 once the matchup was confirmed. The total is still at 51.5, and my fair total is 48.5, so I would lean towards the under, but with two of the best offenses in the NFL, it’s hard to bet an under. It looks like it will be snowing during the game, but snow doesn’t make much difference for the totals, and with no wind or rain, it should be fine for scoring.
Props for the final game of the Divisional round, and I can’t look any further than the King, Derrick Henry. His rushing yards sit around the mid 90’s at the moment, but we are going higher. Over the past month, Henry has averaged 158 rushing yards per game, and he once again should be the focal point of the offense this weekend. I can’t see many Bills’ defenders wanting to tackle this bloke in the freezing conditions on Sunday night.
Prop Bet
Derrick Henry (125+) rushing yards - $3.50 at Sugar Castle (1u)
Ravens -1
$1.91 (2.5 Units)
