The rugby league showcase rolls along with Round 4 of the NRL competition beginning on Thursday night in Sydney. It has been an exciting 3 rounds of action with surprises being delivered each week. The fans are benefitting the most and Before You Bet is here to make sense of all the madness which is the wonderful world of the NRL.
Also, don’t forget to head to our NRL tips page for more previews, analysis and betting tips for every NRL match of every round!
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Penrith Panthers
Location: Accor Stadium
Date: Thursday 27th March
Time: 7:50pm (AEDT)
Odds: Rabbitohs $3.50 vs Panthers $1.30
Line: Panthers -10.5
Points: 49.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
After two strong wins to start the season, the Rabbitohs were dealt a dose of reality with a 27-12 loss to the Sharks on the road. Always expected to struggle, the Rabbitohs remained scoreless until the 69th minute, proving to be their own worst enemy. With just 43% possession, they completed at 71%. They were poor carrying the ball (just 391pcm) and missed 48 tackles. They must be better to compete with the top teams.
The Panthers are still stuck on one win, but it was not without a thrilling contest against the Storm in Melbourne. Missing quality before the game started, they were dealt a blow when Cleary departed the field. Still, they stuck in the fight and were only defeated by 6-points with a 75th minute try providing hope of an upset. It was an improved effort on Round 2, they completed at 88%, missed just 23 tackles and had 7 line breaks. Only the quality of their (stronger) opponent halted them achieving success.
Despite the missing players for the Panthers, they are still strong favourites. Majority of that, apart from their depth, can be put down to further injury woes for their opponents. The omission of Cleary will give insight to a new direction for the Panthers and test the strength of their program without Luai there to assist. The outlier statistically for these two teams ahead of this game is that the Rabbitohs have conceded fewer points (21ppg vs 30ppg) to start the season; the Panthers will want to make a statement defensively because without several stars, they will struggle to score points.
This is a tricky match; the Panthers are the stronger of the two sides, but the Rabbitohs can stay with them if they play to their potential. Then again, with the uncertainty surrounding this, the safe option is to side with the visitors. They have won 12 of the past 14 against their opponents including 4 of the past 5 matches. Without their usual firepower, expect the Panthers to win by a narrower margin than has recently been expected (average 16 points in the past 5 matches).
Panthers 1-12
$3.10 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Total Points Under 48.5 – The average in the past 5 matches is 41.6 points. Despite the visitors allowing a lot more than usual, the Rabbitohs can struggle to score and thus, a lower total is expected.
Leg 2: Tago to score – this isn’t so much about his form as it is his opponents; Tago will oppose Tass on the edge, with the Rabbitohs centre questionable in his decision making in the past.
Leg 3: Johnston to score – he is just 18 tries away from breaking the all-time NRL try scoring record and returns for his first game since Round 21 last year. You can expect the Rabbitohs to constantly sweep to the left edge, with Johnston in position to finish an attacking play.
SGM Odds: $11 at BoomBet
