The Swans confirmed themselves as the team to beat with a strong win over the Giants in Round 15, while Carlton and Brisbane both had big wins to firm as their main challengers in season 2024. At the other end of the ladder, the Kangaroos felt heartbreak for the second week in a row as they seem to have turned the corner with their development. Looking forward to getting back to a full round of matches next week!
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the AFL season, along with our Brownlow vote predictions and projections using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
For links to every round of the season and full count, head to our 2024 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page and check out the latest Brownlow Odds.
2024 AFL Brownlow Round 15 Overview
The bye rounds are over and everyone is now finally on an even playing field. Isaac Heeney may still just be in front but his lead is reducing with the likes of Patrick Cripps, Lachie Neale, Errol Gulden, Tom Green, Zach Merrett, Andrew Brayshaw and Touk Miller likely to poll votes in Round 15 action.
Check out our 2024 Round 15 Brownlow votes below and our updated 2024 Brownlow leaderboard here!
2024 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 15 Match Analysis
Carlton 21.12.138 def Geelong 11.9.75
A thumping win for the Blues to kick start the round as they announced themselves as the main contender to the Swans in season 2024. The Cats didn’t pick a ruckman and Tom De Koning made them pay with a massive 25 disposals, 6 tackles, 34 hitouts, 7 clearances and 1 goal. Patrick Cripps (41 disposals, 13 clearances), Sam Walsh (33 disposals, 9 clearances, 1 goal) and Matthew Kennedy (31 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal) dominated in the middle while Charlie Curnow (5 goals, 13 disposals) continued his run towards another Coleman Medal. Gryan Miers (23 disposals, 9 tackles, 1 goal) was best for the Cats.
Tom De Koning - 2.5
Patrick Cripps - 2.5
Sam Walsh - 1
Port Adelaide 10.13.73 def by Brisbane 23.14.152
The real Lions have finally arrived in season 2024 as they decimated the Power all over the ground on their home deck. Big Oscar McInerney has only polled one Brownlow vote in his career but surely today is his day for more as he was dominant in the ruck with 18 disposals, 31 hitouts, 8 clearances and 3 goals. Lachie Neale (37 disposals, 7 marks, 6 tackles, 10 clearances) and Josh Dunkley (32 disposals, 6 marks, 7 tackles) did as they pleased in the middle, while Eric Hipwood (5 goals, 16 disposals, 10 marks) and Joe Daniher (21 disposals, 8 marks, 3 goals) couldn’t be stopped up forward. Zak Butters (35 disposals, 6 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal) and Connor Rozee (28 disposals, 8 marks, 7 tackles) had too much to do on their own for the Power.
Lachie Neale - 3
Oscar McInerney - 2
Eric Hipwood - 1
GWS Giants 11.9.75 def by Sydney 15.12.102
The Swans were far too good for the Giants in wet and slippery conditions. The damp didn’t seem to worry Errol Gulden who was left by himself to collect 41 disposals, 12 marks and a goal. James Rowbottom (31 disposals, 7 tackles, 11 clearances) enjoyed the scrap while Brodie Grundy (28 disposals, 32 hitouts) continued his great season. Tom Green was a standout for the Giants with 35 disposals and 8 marks.
Errol Gulden - 3
Tom Green - 1.5
James Rowbottom - 1.5
Melbourne 11.4.70 def North Melbourne 10.7.67
Melbourne will be very relieved to get the points against a gallant Kangaroos team who have once again shown they’ve turned the corner. Jack Viney (25 disposals, 6 tackles, 12 clearances) was a warrior, Trent Rivers (21 disposals, 6 marks, 6 tackles, 1 goal) enjoyed a shift into the middle of the ground and Steven May (18 disposals, 8 marks) was a rock in the backline. The Roos had plenty of good contributors with Harry Sheezel (27 disposals, 7 marks, 2 goals), Luke Davies-Uniacke (31 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal) and George Wardlaw (23 disposals, 8 tackles, 7 clearances) proving the future is bright.
Jack Viney - 2.5
Luke Davies-Uniacke - 2.5
Harry Sheezel - 1
Essendon 19.8.122 def West Coast 13.14.92
Essendon didn’t have it all their own way but did enough to get the points against a spirited Eagles. Jake Stringer was the star with 5 goals from 20 disposals and 10 marks. Jye Caldwell (26 disposals, 6 marks, 11 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal), Sam Durham (29 disposals, 1 goal) and Zach Merrett (29 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal). They are likely to share the votes, and it will be interesting to see if Merrett gets a vote or misses out. Elliot Yeo (20 disposals, 13 tackles, 7 clearances, 1 goal) was relentless for the Eagles.
Jake Stringer - 3
Jye Caldwell - 1
Sam Durham - 1
Zach Merrett - 1
Fremantle 12.13.85 def Gold Coast 10.5.65
Freo have moved into 5th on the ladder with a hard-fought win over the Suns. Andrew Brayshaw (32 disposals, 8 tackles, 7 clearances, 1 goal) was back to his best with Hayden Young (24 disposals, 3 goals) and Caleb Serong (29 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) helping to win the midfield battle. Touk Miller (33 disposals, 8 marks, 6 tackles) and Sam Flanders (33 disposals, 7 marks) tried hard for Gold Coast.
Hayden Young - 3
Andrew Brayshaw - 2
Touk Miller - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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