Thursday Night Football coincides with Boxing Day in America, and they get an NFC matchup to watch with the family as the Seahawks head to the windy city to take on the Bears at Soldier Field. With the Bears long since eliminated from Playoff contention, it is the Seahawks who have everything to play for, who need a win to ensure they keep their chances of the playoffs alive. A loss for the Seahawks means the Rams can clinch the NFC West with a win against the Cardinals at home this week. Huge stakes for Seattle. Catch our full preview and best bets for the game below!
NFL Week 17 Betting Tips
Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks
Soldier Field, Friday 27th November, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Bears lost their ninth straight last week, and after the firing of Head Coach Matt Eberflus, the Bears have hardly improved, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Against the Lions last week, the Bears were able to look good on offense, going for 382 yards of total offense and scoring 17 points, however their defence was once again torn to pieces, as the Lions gained 474 total yards on their way to winning 34-17. Caleb Williams again showed why the Bears should be happy with the rookie’s trajectory, throwing for 334 yards and 2 touchdowns, with Keenan Allen hauling in 9 catches for 141 yards and a score.
As for the Seahawks, they were involved in the game of the week when they hosted the Vikings in week 16. In a tremendous back-and-forth battle, the Seahawks were the better team offensively, gaining 1.2 yards per play more than the Vikings, however they lost the turnover battle 2-0, which ultimately cost them the game. Geno Smith threw all day, attempting 43 passes on his way to 315 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Jaxon Smith-Njigba continued his breakout season, catching 8 balls for 95 yards and a touchdown.
Match Preview
The Bears and Seahawks haven’t met since week 16 of the 2021 NFL season, with the Bears coming back from a 10-point fourth quarter deficit to win 25-24. These teams are unrecognisable three years on, and both have new quarterback / head coach combinations, so there is nothing to take from the result.
On the lookahead, the Seahawks were short 1.5-point road favourites, before re-opening as 3.5-point favourites after the week 16 games. This is a massive adjustment through the key number of 3, and I’ve got to believe it’s from a Bears downgrade, as well as a premium being put on the Seahawks given their “must win” situation this week. This happens all the time at this time of year, and generally the “must win” team struggles to cover the number given the market is putting a premium on them, and they generally aren’t that good of a team if they’re in this situation to begin with. However, with the Bears defence leaking like a sieve since the loss of Eberflus, I’ll leave this alone.
Looking towards the total, and it opened 41.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening slightly higher at 42.5. It has been bet up heavily towards the key of 44, to where it now sits at 43.5. My fair total is 44 and I happily got on at the lookahead of 41.5, however now I would only lean slightly towards the over, but no bet for me. Where I will look to attack the total is with the Seahawks team total who I believe is lined a point or too short at 23.5. Since Eberflus was fired, the Bears have conceded 38, 30, and 34 points in the ensuing three games, and I believe the Seahawks should be able to get to 27 comfortably. There’s a slight chance of rain, which could impact this slightly, but let’s hope for a relatively clear evening in Chicago.
Prop wise, I’ll lean into where the Bears have struggled in the past three weeks, and that has been against the pass. With both Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet questionable, there’s a distinct possibility that the Seahawks continue to air it out. I like both D.K Metcalf (60.5) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (68.5) to go over their receiving yard total, but I’ll stick with JSN as my best bet. This kid is legit, and it close to usurping D.K Metcalf as the WR1 at the Seahawks.
Prop Bet:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (over) 70.5 receiving yards - $2.00 at TAB (1.5u)
Seahawks (team total) over 23.5
$1.98 (1 Units)
