AFL Round 7 concludes at Marvel Stadium with West Coast searching for their first win in 2025, when they take on Hawthorn. Can the Hawks bounce back from consecutive defeats? Or will the Eagles cause a major boilover?
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Hawthorn vs West Coast
Location: Marvel Stadium – Melbourne
Date: Sunday, 27th April
Time: 4:45pm AEST
Odds: Hawthorn ($1.03) vs West Coast ($13)
Line: Hawthorn -58.5
Points: 180.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Dabble. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
After starting the season with four straight wins and sitting as flag favourites, Hawthorn have fallen back to the pack after two straight defeats. Unlike their horror performance at Gather Round, the Hawks came off on the wrong side of a classic encounter against Geelong, which they could have easily won.
The Hawks were wasteful in front of goal, kicking 11.13 and butchered the ball by foot, which turned into 43 Geelong points from turnover. Connor Macdonald (37.5% kicking efficiency), Dylan Moore (42.9%), Nick Watson (42.9%), Jack Gunston (46.2%), Josh Weddle (50%) and James Sicily (62.5%) were all well below their high kicking standards.
Hawthorn have made three changes to their side from last week, with Jack Ginnivan, Henry Hustwaite and Bailey Macdonald coming into the side. Connor Nash (suspension), Luke Breust (managed) and Changkuoth Jiath (omitted) make way.
West Coast have also made three changes with Tom Cole, Oscar Allen and Noah Long coming into the lineup. Tim Kelly (toe), Harry Edwards (omitted) and Tom Gross (omitted) out of the 23.
After 81 and 71 point thumpings in Rounds 4 and 5, West Coast showed their best performance of the season, in a heartbreaking 2 point loss to Essendon. It was a missed opportunity for the Eagles who kicked 5 of the first 6 goals to lead by 29 points early in the second quarter.
Elijah Hewett put West Coast 25 points clear with 7 minutes remaining in the third quarter, and the Eagles were on the cusp of finally breaking their drought. However the Eagles would concede 6 straight goals as Essendon built a lead they couldn’t overcome despite a fast finish.
It was a big improvement for West Coast to win the inside 50 and contested possession counts, and they will need to bring that intensity against a quality Hawthorn side.
The big danger in this game for the Eagles, will be Hawthorn’s work from set plays. The Hawks are ranked 1st in the AFL for scores from kick ins (7.8 points per game), 1st for scores from centre bounces (21 points per game) and 5th for scores from stoppages (39.7).
Another big issue for West Coast is the turnover game, which they are one of the worst teams in the league. Over the past five games they’ve conceded an average of 42 points per game from turnover, and conceded 58 points from turnover against Essendon last week.
The Hawks will put the Eagles under plenty of pressure, with Sam Micthell’s side ranking 1st in the league for pressure acts, 3rd for tackles and 4th for tackles inside 50. If Hawthorn bring the heat in their forward half, things could get ugly for a West Coast side that hasn’t handled pressure well.
Hawthorn have won three straight games against West Coast, and they’ve feasted on the Eagles in their last two clashes. The Hawks have won their last two matches against West Coast by margins of 61 and 116 points, and with Hawthorn looking to bounce back from two straight defeats, expect a strong response from Hawthorn. This game could get very ugly.
Hawthorn -58.5
$2.02 (1.5 Units)
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Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals: Newcombe has put together a quality five week stretch, with returns of 28, 29, 21, 32 and 25 disposals in his last five games. Newcombe recorded 33 disposals against West Coast last season.
Karl Amon 20+ Disposals: One of the unsung heroes in Hawthorn’s side, Amon continues to perform every week. Amon is averaging a career high 24.7 disposals per game this season, and has hit the 20 disposal mark in all six of his games this year.
Nick Watson 2+ Goals: The Wizard will be looking to feast on a vulnerable West Coast defence, in what has been a really solid five week period for Watson. Watson has kicked 3, 2, 1, 0 and 2 goals in his last five games, and will get plenty of supply on Sunday evening.
Total Points Over 176.5: West Coast conceded scores of 136, 94, 106, 132 and 121 across their first five games of the season. With perfect conditions on offer under the roof, the Hawks should have a field day against a struggling defence. The total average points scored in West Coast’s first five games was 177.2 points per game.
SGM Odds: $3.80 at BoomBet
