Week 16 in the NFL reaches its conclusion with an NFC battle, as the Packers host the Saints at Lambeau Field, on a chilly night in Wisconsin. With the Saints playing purely for pride, this could get ugly if the Packers come ready to play. Best to find some bets to make this one more enjoyable, and there’s no better place to find those bets than right here, at Before You Bet!
NFL Week 16 Betting Tips
Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints
Lambeau Field, Tuesday 24th November, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Packers won their fourth game from their previous five last week, as they easily accounted for the Seahawks on the road, 30-13. The work was done early, with the Packers shooting out to a quick two score lead in the first quarter, before leading 20-3 at halftime. Jordan Love was at his efficient best, going 20-27 for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns. But it was running back Josh Jacobs who was the star, bulldozing his way to 94 yards and a touchdown on the ground, whilst also hauling in 4 passes for 42 yards. Defensively, it was lineman Kingsley Enagbare who dominated, making 5 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks.
The Saints hosted the Commanders last week, and despite the fact the Saints had a chance to win the game with the last play of the game, it should never have been that close, and the Commanders deserved to win by more than the final score of 20-19. The Saints ended up switching quarterbacks, as starter Jake Haener was benched at halftime for Spencer Rattler who, whilst playing better than Haener, didn’t exactly set the world on fire. With Alvin Kamara going down injured, it’s hard to see where the Saints will get their points from this week against the Packers.
Match Preview
The Saints and Packers last met in week 3 of the 2023 NFL season, with the Packers closing as short 1.5-point home underdogs. The Saints led 17-0 heading into the fourth quarter, before Jordan Love pulled the Packers back from the brink, leading them to an 18-17 home win. I won’t be taking much from this result, given the mass changes and injuries to the Saints offense, and the fact that Jordan Love has improved markedly since this game.
This week, the Packers opened 13-point favourites on the look ahead, before re-opening at 13.5. It didn’t take long for the Packers to get bet, pushing the spread to 14 early in the week, where it has stayed since. I can’t get to this number; however, I also can’t bet the Saints. The Packers could easily win this by multiple scores; however, I don’t think they need to bring their A game, and Interim Head Coach Darren Rizzi seems like a guy who wants to push to the very end of games. I’ll leave the spread alone.
The total for this matchup hasn’t shifted since the lookahead, with it stuck on 42 throughout the week and a half it’s been up. My fair total is higher than this, however I’m not convinced that the Saints can score against a Packers defence that has been solid this year, so the play is for the Packers to go over their team total, which sits around 27.5 at the time of writing. The Saints are on the verge of giving up this season, despite Rizzi’s obvious overzealous nature. I think the Packers can get the job done here and get to 30.
Props wise, I don’t love the board this week, however I’ll take a plus money option in Saints’ wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling to latch onto another deep ball this week. MVS has been one of the better deep threats in the league in the second half of the season, and with a longest reception of 20+ yards at $2.15, I’ll get on board. Spencer Rattler likes to sling the ball down field, and MVS is easily his best target in this regard.
Prop Bet
Valdes-Scantling (longest reception) 20+ yards - $2.15 at Bet365 (1u)
Packers (team total) over 27.5 points
$1.85 (1.5 Units)
