Black Friday in America gives us a stand-alone AFC East matchup between the Dolphins and Jets for our NFL Saturday in Australia. What was billed as a huge matchup at the start of the year, turned into a bit of an afterthought after the Aaron Rodgers injury in week 1. Nevertheless, this should be an interesting game, with the Jets elite defence attempting to keep them in the playoff race, as Tim Boyle takes over as QB1 for the Jets.
Below, we will dissect the NFL matchup, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our Best Bet. Make sure you are following Before You Bet, as we will have dedicated NFL match previews for all prime-time games this NFL season, as well as a preview of the main NFL slate on Mondays. All for free!
NFL Week 12: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Metlife Stadium, Saturday 25th November, 7:00am (AEDT)
The Dolphins came into their clash with the Raiders at home last week as massive 14-point favourites. At no time were the Raiders not covering the spread, with the Dolphins offense leaving plenty of points on the field, after outgaining the Raiders 422 yards to 296. Three turnovers would not have been apart of the gameplan for Head Coach Mike McDaniel, and he will want a much cleaner performance this week. The MVP for the Dolphins was once again Tyreek Hill, who caught 10 passes for 146 yards and a touchdown.
As for the Jets, they were hammered by another AFC East rival last week, going down 32-6 to the Bills. It was the final straw for quarterback Zach Wilson, who has been demoted to QB3 on the roster, with Tim Boyle set to start. The Jets offense was non-existent, managing only 132 yards passing at 2.6 yards per play, despite chasing the entire game. With the Dolphins defence being a better unit than that of the Bills, it’s hard to find where the Jets get their points from this week.
Injury Report
New York Jets:
Bradlee Anae / Ifeadi Odenigbo (DE) – OUT
Chuck Clark (DB) – OUT
Alijah Vera-Tucker / Wes Schweitzer / Connor McGovern (OG) – OUT
Al Woods (DT) – OUT
Aaron Rodgers (QB) – OUT
Quincy Williams / Jermaine Johnson II / Chazz Surratt / Sam Equavoen (LB) – Questionable
John Franklin-Myers (DE) – Questionable
Tony Adams (DB) – Questionable
Garrett Wilson (WR) – Questionable
Michael Carter II (CB) – Questionable
Billy Turner / Mekhi Bekton (OT) – Questionable
Miami Dolphins
Zeke Vandenburgh (LB) – OUT
Keion Crossen (DB) – OUT
Isaiah Wynn (OG) – OUT
Erik Ezukanma (WR) – OUT
Salvon Ahmed (RB) – OUT
Tyreek Hill / Chase Claypool (WR) – Questionable
Raheem Mostert / De’Von Achane (RB) – Questionable
Austin Jackson / Terron Armstead (OT) – Questionable
Lester Cotton / Robert Hunt / Robert Jones (OG) – Questionable
Alec Ingold (FB) – Questionable
Durham Smythe (TE) – Questionable
Match Preview
These teams met twice last year, with the Jets hammering the Dolphins in week 5, 40-17. Skylar Thompson played the majority of snaps at quarterback, as he did in the Dolphins week 18 win in Miami, with the Dolphins winning 11-6. I don’t take a lot from either game, with Tua Tagovailoa unavailable for both games. In Tua’s two previous full games against the Jets in the 2021/22 season, the Dolphins won both games.
The Dolphins opened 6-point road favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening as 7.5-point favourites following the Jets route loss to the Bills last week. With the news of Tim Boyle starting at quarterback, Dolphins money poured in, as they were bet up to a full 10-point favourite on the road. This is where the game met market resistance, with Jets money coming in to where the market now sits at Dolphins -9.5. I cannot get anywhere near this number, and I have the Dolphins closer to a 7-point favourite. Do I have the stones to bet the Jets though?
As for the total, it was 42.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening at 42. The number now sits right on the key of 41, which is easily the lowest total in any Dolphins game this season. This will basically come down to whether the Dolphins can blow the Jets out, as I don’t expect the Jets to be able to score more than 10 points, without a defensive touchdown. However, I cannot bet a Dolphins under, their offense is far too explosive.
So, how can we justify a play on the Jets here? The Dolphins haven’t been in this situation all year, more than a touchdown favourite on the road. As road favourites this season, they are 1-1 in covering the spread, however they were both sub-3-point spreads, and completely different to this game. As for the Jets, they have shown the ability to hang with teams at home when they are large underdogs. As home dogs, the Jets have covered 3 of 5 spreads, keeping tabs on the Chiefs, whilst beating the Bills and Eagles outright at home. If the team gets a morale bump with the demotion of Zach Wilson, the Jets can cover double digits here. A very small outlay, as who can really trust Tim Boyle.
Alternative Bet: New York Jets (team total) under 14.5 points - $2.02 @ Dabble (1u)
New York Jets (+10)
$1.86 (1.5 units)
