Quarter-final time in Super Rugby Pacific offers three clearcut favourites and a classic ACT Brumbies v Hurricanes clash in Canberra.
We tipped the Hurricanes at $2.70 to upset the Crusaders in the final round of the regular season but they will have a tough time repeating that success on Saturday in the nation’s chilly capital.
All four home teams won quarter-finals last year. Let’s take a closer look at how this year's quarter-finals shape up.
2023 Super Rugby Pacific: Quarter-finals Preview & Betting Tips
Blues v NSW Waratahs
Fri, June 9 Eden Park, Auckland 5:05pm (AEST)
The Waratahs have lost leadership (Jake Gordon), X-factor (Max Jorgensen) and front-row experience (Harry Johnson-Holmes) with three key injuries.
It’s hard to see the Waratahs measuring up to the Blues and the bookies don’t think they will with Ladbrokes listing them as 17-point underdogs.
The Waratahs need to jump out to a lead early to apply any pressure. In-form Mark Nawaqanitawase and Dylan Pietsch are the most reliable strike weapons to finish off any creative play.
The Blues carry the ball for more metres and make more line breaks (seven per game) than any other side in SRP.
That’s the wave coming at the Waratahs who have to show starchy defence to stay in this. It will take more than Michael Hooper making 20 tackles. Everyone has to join in.
Blues winger Mark Telea is a beast. He has 11 tries for the season with 130 carries, 1502 running metres and 22 linebreaks of his own. That’s some season.
Still, $1.35 to score an Anytime Try (TAB) is ridiculously short. Hoskins Sotutu ($2.10) is better value.
Mark Telea Try & Blues win by 13+
$1.94 (4 Units)
Chiefs v Queensland Reds
Sat, June 10 FMG Stadium, Hamilton, 2:35pm (AEST)
The Reds’ only two wins over Kiwi sides since 2021 have come over the Chiefs.
That includes the epic 25-22 upset in New Plymouth in May when the Reds were 20-point underdogs. They are quoted as similar outsiders on Saturday against a stronger Chiefs side.
All Blacks Sam Cane, Brodie Retallick and Brad Weber were missing from the May game but the Reds still did what few sides have managed…they bottled up Damian McKenzie and the Chiefs attack.
Huge defence and a miserly penalty count are a must again.
Having James O’Connor back at inside centre is a plus for the direction of the attack. He’ll play outside Tom Lynagh.
You’ll get big games from backrower Harry Wilson and flanker Fraser McReight but who else in the Reds pack is going to bring a five-star performance?
The Reds need a 10-0 start to ignite confidence and the style of defence that coach Brad Thorn has built into the team's attitude.
Reds +9.5 First-Half Margin
$1.95 (4 Units)
Crusaders v Fijian Drua
Sat, June 10 Orangetheory Stadium, Christchurch, 5:05pm (AEST)
The Drua upset the Crusaders in Round Three but that 25-24 win had the fuel of a Fijian crowd.
The Fijians are a different team on the road and have lost their last seven games outside Fiji.
That said, they have wonderful firepower and have the attack to hurt the Crusaders.
Whether they can do that for 80 minutes rather than 10-minute bursts is unlikely.
This will be a fun game to watch. The running, offloading and quick ruck work of the Fijians always excites. A much-improved scrum and lineout is behind 2023’s sharp improvement as well as a better organised defence.
You’d love to see the Fijians ahead with 20 minutes to play.
Fijian Drua +21.5
$1.94 (3 Units)
ACT Brumbies v Hurricanes
Sat, June 10 GIO Stadium, Canberra 7:35pm (AEST)
The Brumbies have got a great Canberra record over the Hurricanes…five wins since 2016.
Delve into the finals record and the Brumbies have won 10 of their past 12 play-off matches in Canberra.
The Brumbies have all the assets to win this…a strong pack, their rolling maul as a try weapon, a dominant lineout, smart halfbacks and sizzle in the back three.
It starts with backrower Rob Valetini being as dominant as he often is against Kiwi sides. If he has plenty of henchmen, the Brumbies will win this.
The Hurricanes were impressive in knocking off the Crusaders in Wellington last round.
As dynamic as halfback Cam Roigard has been by beating more defenders (43) than any other player in his side, the Brumbies are shrewd enough to put the clamps on him.
The Brumbies are starting as outsiders so there is value here. Ladbrokes are giving the Brumbies a +1.5pt headstart ($1.83) at the line.
Brumbies to Win
$2 (4 Units)
