Another rough Monday Night Football game this week, as the Baker Mayfield-led Los Angeles Rams (4-9) head to Lambeau Field, to take on the Packers (5-8). The Rams’ season is done, if not mathematically, then every other way. The Packers, however, still have a shot. With the relative weakness in the middle of the NFC, if the Packers win out, they have a very good chance at making the playoffs. A loss here though, and it’s more than likely curtains.
A terrible week so far, going 1-3 on our best bets for Thursday Night and the Saturday games, losing all 2u plays, with our only winner being a 1u selection. We now sit at 24-23-1 (+0.42u) on the season for our prime-time bets. Tough week.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers Preview & Betting Tips
Lambeau Field, Tuesday 12:15pm AEDT
Last Week
The Rams played in an absolute heart attack game last week, winning 17-16 over the Raiders after trailing 16-3 late in the 4th quarter. Baker Mayfield was able to guide his new team home, despite only arriving at the facilities 36 hours before game time. I put the win for the Rams more on the Raiders though, with some disgraceful coaching from Josh McDaniels costing the Raiders a certain victory. The Rams won the turnover battle 2-1, but had less yards, less yards per play, and less passing yards per play. The Raiders were 1 for 4 in the redzone, and you’ve got to believe that if the Raiders were able to punch 1 more in early, this would have been a big Rams loss.
The Packers are off the bye, coming off a victory over the Bears in their last start in week 13.
Injury Report
Los Angeles Rams
Aaron Donald / A’Shawn Robinson (DE) – OUT
John Wolford / Matthew Stafford (QB) – OUT
Cooper Kupp / Allen Robinson (WR) – OUT
Alaric Jackson / Chandler Brewer / Logan Bruss / Tremayne Anchrum (OG) – OUT
Joe Notebook (OT) – OUT
David Long / Grant Haley / Jordan Fuller (DB) – OUT
Green Bay Packers
David Bakhtiari (OT) – OUT
Jake Hanson (OG) – OUT
Rashan Gary (DE) – OUT
Eric Stokes (CB) – OUT
Match Preview
There has been a massive reaction to the Rams’ victory last week over the Raiders, and our job is to figure out if it’s an overreaction. The lookahead in this matchup was Packers -9, with the number re-opening at Packers -7.5. During the week, Rams money continued coming in, with the number crossing the key of 7 and down to Packers -6.5. That’s a massive move, and one I have to say I don’t agree with.
I jumped on the Packers at -6.5, however it appears as though Packers’ backers are starting to come into the market, with the number currently at 7 and pushing towards 7.5. This makes the handicap a bit tougher, as getting that key number of 7 is massive, and a good reason for NFL bettors to keep an eye on the market throughout the week, as getting the best of the number is critical to long term profit.
The total is low in this game (39.5), and I can’t say I disagree. The Rams average the 3rd lowest points per game in the NFL (16.8), but the Packers’ run defence scares me. Fortunately, the Rams offensive line is beat up and their run game isn’t exactly elite. Going to have a smorgasbord of bets here, all for low stakes, but I’m hoping for a tight, low scoring game state throughout, with Aaron Rodgers getting the Packers home in the end, 24-14.
Alternate Bets:
Green Bay Packers (-7) - $1.94 @ Betfair (1.5u)
Green Bay Packers (Team Total) over 23.5 - $1.90 @ TAB (1u)
Los Angeles Rams (Team Total) under 16.5
$1.85 (1.5 Units)
