The great thing about the Brownlow is that you don’t have to figure out who wins the actual Medal to make a profit. There’s a plethora of Brownlow betting markets that you can dive into, and one of the most popular is the Brownlow Team Votes markets. If you watch your team every week and know your players intimately, then these might be the Brownlow markets for you!
We take a close look at the top five vote getters for each team and compare them to the betting odds on offer to try and find some value bets.
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2022 AFL Brownlow Team Votes
Adelaide (50.5)
Rory Laird - 16.5
Ben Keays - 8.5
Taylor Walker - 8.5
Jordan Dawson - 6
Josh Rachele - 3.5
At Adelaide it’s Rory Laird and then daylight - he's the $1.05 favourite, which is probably value! Interestingly in the market without Laird, the books are favouring Keays over Walker. We have both polling in four games, but neither is crystal clear, so you could nibble at Walker at the larger price for what appears a coin flip.
Brisbane (79.5)
Lachie Neale - 26.5
Hugh McLuggage - 14.5
Dayne Zorko - 7
Zac Bailey - 5.5
Keidean Coleman - 5.5
There’s not much to talk about at Brisbane. Lachie Neale an obvious winner and Hugh McLuggage an obvious runner-up. No value anywhere, so let’s move on!
Carlton (77.5)
Patrick Cripps - 24.5
Sam Walsh - 18
Charlie Curnow - 12
Sam Docherty - 9.5
Adam Cerra - 5
After missing the early parts of the season through injury, Sam Walsh put together another solid season and you’d be silly to think he’s not a chance to win a Brownlow at some stage in his career. It won’t be in 2022 however. Patrick Cripps should do enough to win Carlton, so you can multi up the $1.08 if you’re feeling fruity. Walsh to finish second with Charlie Curnow unlikely to threaten in third.
Collingwood (60.5)
Jack Crisp - 11.5
Nick Daicos - 11.5
Jordan De Goey - 6.5
Josh Daicos - 6.5
Darcy Cameron - 4.5
One of the more interesting Brownlow team markets is Collingwood. For us, it’s a two-horse race between Jack Crisp and Nick Daicos, however some of the Australian sports betting sites have Josh Daicos and Jordan De Goey in the mix, which gives us a bit of value in the markets.
We’ll back our projections and take on De Goey, as I feel that Crisp and N.Daicos are more likely to poll the threes required.
Saver: Jack Crisp - $2.50 at Bet365
Essendon (56)
Zach Merrett - 12.5
Darcy Parish - 11.5
Mason Redman - 8
Peter Wright - 6
Nic Martin - 5.5
Essendon is another interesting Brownlow betting market. Parish collected all his votes prior to Round 11 before being injured late, while Merrett didn’t get motoring until after Round 16 where he may have just polled enough to pip Parish.
We only have one vote it in, and there’s been a lot of talk during the season about both players collecting junk disposals without really influencing games, so we’ll have to see how the umpires react to that media coverage.
The bookies have a clear win to Merrett which offers us a great price to nibble on Parish to find an extra vote or two to cause the upset.
Fremantle (79)
Andrew Brayshaw - 23
Will Brodie - 14.5
Caleb Serong - 6.5
Luke Ryan - 6
Lachie Schultz - 4.5
What a season by Will Brodie after moving across from the Gold Coast in a steal by the Dockers. He should poll well in the Brownlow for a clear second at Fremantle behind Andrew Brayshaw. No value in the betting markets, but you could take the $1.22 for Brodie without Brayshaw to boost some multis.
Geelong (98)
Jeremy Cameron - 20.5
Cam Guthrie - 10
Patrick Dangerfield - 9.5
Tom Stewart - 8
Tom Hawkins - 7.5
Jeremy Cameron is the only key position player we have in contention for the Brownlow after a remarkable season. Not the worst smokey to win it at cricket score odds.
The $1.30 offered at Ladbrokes for Cameron to win Geelong looks good for a multi, but otherwise hard to dive into this market.
We have the team total of 98 for the Cats as the most in the league. This market is currently split with Melbourne who we have just behind. Happy to back the Cats on a coin flip.
Geelong Most Team Votes
$2.00
Gold Coast (66.5)
Touk Miller - 20.5
David Swallow - 7
Jarrod Witts - 7
Noah Anderson - 6
Matt Rowell - 5
It’s the Touk Miller show at the Gold Coast, but there’s some value behind him in the market without Miller. Noah Anderson is the bookies pick and he’s had some good games, but we don’t actually have him polling any threes. By comparison we have David Swallow starring in two games, and Witts dominant in at least one game.
I don’t think Anderson is a lock by any means so happy to dabble on the generous odds on Swallow or Witts to cause an upset.
Also backing: Jarrod Witts - $10 at TAB
David Swallow (w/o Miller)
$21
GWS Giants (49.5)
Josh Kelly - 9.5
Stephen Coniglio - 7.5
Jesse Hogan - 5.5
Toby Greene - 5
Tim Taranto - 4
Not a great year for GWS as their stars won’t be able to put in the usual big Brownlow performances. Josh Kelly should get a narrow win, but Stephen Coniglio also put in a solid season. Jesse Hogan and Toby Greene can most likely only poll in two games, so it looks a market between two.
The bookies have it about right with Kelly a narrow favourite over Coniglio, so hard to suggest much value here.
Hawthorn (55)
Jai Newcombe - 11
Jack Gunston - 8.5
Tom Mitchell - 7.5
Dylan Moore - 6.5
James Sicily - 6.5
Is Tom Mitchell going to poll on reputation alone? It’s possible. The 2018 Brownlow medalist had a poor season by his lofty standards, and there were several games where he collected plenty of touches but was largely ineffective.
With our Brownlow vote projections, we tended to favour the influence of rising star Jai Newcombe with his strong tackling and penetrating kicking. Will the umpires agree?
The Brownlow markets have Mitchell and Newcombe together at the top of the market, but with a projected 3.5 vote advantage, we’re happy to back the new blood of Newcombe here.
Melbourne (93)
Christian Petracca - 25
Clayton Oliver - 22.5
Max Gawn - 14
Jack Viney - 7
Angus Brayshaw - 7
If you can figure out the Melbourne market, then that will help you go a long way to figuring out who will be the 2022 Brownlow medalist. If votes lean towards Oliver or Petracca (or they swing to Gawn or Brayshaw) then that could decide the entire count.
We have leant to Petracca ahead of Oliver which is the opposite to the way the bookies have it. We’ll see who gets it right on the night.
The team total of Melbourne of 93 is second overall on our counts, so as we mentioned earlier, we lean towards Geelong in the Team Total Votes market.
North Melbourne (25.5)
Luke Davies-Uniacke - 7.5
Jy Simpkin - 6
Nick Larkey - 6
Cam Zurhaar - 2
Luke McDonald - 1.5
A sad Brownlow count for the cellar dwellers with Luke McDonald making the top 5 with a projection of just 1.5 votes.
Luke Davies-Uniacke might be a great Brownlow smokey for next season, but for this season he should do enough to win at North with a couple of superb games late in the season. Jy Simpkin won the best and fairest and was probably more consistent without the big stand out games of LDU.
Not much cheese in the price of LDU at $1.40, so happy to give that a pass.
Port Adelaide (66)
Connor Rozee - 19
Ollie Wines - 12.5
Zak Butters - 6.5
Dan Houston - 6.5
Travis Boak - 6
Speaking of Brownlow bets for next season, Connor Rozee might be the first one you pick after a breakout season in 2022. He’s up against perennial Brownlow pollers in Ollie Wines and Travis Boak but should have no worries winning Port. The best price is $1.30 at Ladbrokes which might be good to build your multis.
Richmond (73)
Dion Prestia - 18
Shai Bolton - 13
Tom Lynch - 13
Liam Baker - 8.5
Jayden Short - 7
We’ve got the human meatball Dion Prestia winning at Richmond, but it’s certainly not a lock. Shai Bolton is an electric player who is capable of attracting votes when you least expect it. Tom Lynch was also excellent, but you’d think his votes are more predictable when he’s kicking bags of goals.
We’ve only got Bolton polling in six games, and Prestia in as many as eight.
There’s two crucial games where we couldn’t actually split the two. One is Round 9 where Prestia had 28 disposals and Bolton had 20 disposals with 2 goals. The other is Round 21 where Prestia (32 disposals), Bolton (17 disposals, 4 goals) and Trent Cotchin (31 disposals) were hard to separate. Where the votes go in these two rounds will be crucial for this market.
Happy to back our projections and a five vote advantage for Prestia.
St Kilda (73.5)
Brad Crouch - 12
Jade Gresham - 11.5
Jack Steele - 11
Jack Higgins - 8.5
Jack Sinclair - 7.5
Gee it’s tight at the Saints with Brad Crouch, Jade Gresham and Jack Steele all projected within one vote of each other, while Jack Higgins and Jack Sinclair aren’t far behind.
The bookies have Steele the firm favourite which is a little surprising. He’s the obvious choice for the umpires as he’s the captain, he’s tough at the ball under the umpire’s noses and he polled well last year. However at the prices, I would lean to a bet on Brad Crouch ($5.50 at Bet365) and a nibble on Jade Gresham at a whopping price ($21 at Bet365). There’s not a lot of confidence here, but the price is value.
Also backing: Jade Gresham - $21 at Bet365
Sydney (87)
Callum Mills - 17.5
Chad Warner - 13
Luke Parker - 11.5
Isaac Heeney - 11
Top Papley - 5
James Rowbottom - 5
At one stage during the season, we suggested a play on Callum Mills when he was going bonkers after Round 6, however he dried up after that to slip out of Brownlow contention. Chad Warner improved throughout the season while Luke Parker and Isaac Heeney had a flourish early and then very late in the season.
Hard to see the others polling enough to catch Mills so the $1.30 at Ladbrokes looks like a good multi banker.
West Coast (26)
Josh Kennedy - 5
Jeremy McGovern - 5
Willie Rioli - 3.5
Tim Kelly - 3
Tom Barrass - 3
If the Kangaroos were a sad bunch of Brownlow counts, then it’s no better here at West Coast where we’ve got the aging duo of Josh Kennedy and Jeremy McGovern leading the counts with a grand total of 5 votes each.
The interesting round for the Eagles is Round 4 where they landed a massive upset win over the Magpies. We’ve given the 3 votes to McGovern on that day, so if they go somewhere else, then Kennedy will be a lock with his two near best-on-ground efforts late in the season. Hard to see anyone else going higher than Kennedy, while McGovern could easily miss.
It will be a close battle for lowest Total Team Votes with West Coast projected for 26 votes and the Kangaroos at 25.5 votes!
Saver: Jeremy McGovern - $11 at Ladbrokes
Western Bulldogs (72)
Marcus Bontempelli - 14
Josh Dunkley - 11.5
Bailey Smith - 9.5
Tom Liberatore - 9
Jack Macrae - 7
The Bont was runner-up in the Brownlow last year and although he hasn’t been able to match that season, we have him projected on top at the Bulldogs. He had a slow start to the year as he battled with injury, but he came home strong with some solid performances.
Not only do we have him on top, but he can tend to overpoll so happy to lean his way versus Josh Dunkley at a good price.
