What an intriguing battle we have on Monday Night Football in Week 5, as the surprising Saints head to Arrowhead Stadium to take on a Chiefs outfit who barely have an offense right now. With the loss of Rashee Rice, Mahomes is going to have to improvise in a matchup against a Saints’ defence that has looked great at times this season. We bring you our full betting preview below!
NFL Week 5 Preview & Betting Tips
Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints
Arrowhead Stadium, Tuesday 8th October, 11:15am (AEDT)
Last Week
The Chiefs struggled out of the blocks last week against the Chargers, going down 10-0 after one quarter, however, to be fair the scoreline flattered the Chargers. After an early fumble by Carson Steele, the Chargers put together a 10 play 74-yard touchdown drive to lead 7-0. A Patrick Mahomes interception left them with great field position when they next had the ball on offense, however another stalled drive led to only a field goal, putting the Chargers up 10-0. With the loss of Rashee Rice, the defence continued to stand up for the Chiefs, allowing Patrick Mahomes to finesse his way to a 17-10 victory, with a with a fourth quarter Samaje Perine touchdown proving the difference.
As for the Saints, they managed to lose a game they really should have won, as they went down 26-24 to the Falcons, despite the Falcons offense failing to score a touchdown. It took a 58-yard Koo field goal to get the Falcons home, in a bit of a fake result in my opinion. Alvin Kamara had a big game, with 119 total yards and touchdown, whilst Olave and Shaheed continued their big years, each gaining more than 80 yards through the air. The Saints now go on the road for their second straight week to take on a Chiefs team that are a perfect 4-0 to start the season.
Injury Report
Kansas City Chiefs
Rashee Rice / Marquise Brown (WR) – OUT
BJ Thompson / Charles Omenihu (DE) – OUT
Clyde Edwards-Helaire / Isiah Pacheco (RB) – OUT
Mecole Hardman (WR) – Questionable
New Orleans Saints
Taysom Hill (TE) – OUT
Willie Gay Jr. (LB) – OUT
Cesar Ruiz / Shane Lemieux / Justin Herron (OG) – OUT
Payton Turner / Tanoh Kpassagnon / Cameron Peterson (DE) – OUT
Eric McCoy (C) – OUT
Nephi Sewell (LB) – OUT
Rejzohn Wright (DB) – OUT
Ryan Ramczyk (OT) – OUT
Lucas Patrick (OG) – Questionable
Pete Werner (LB) – Questionable
Match Preview
These teams haven’t met in regular season play since week 15 in the 2020/21 NFL season. At the time, they were two of the better teams in the NFL, with the Chiefs (12-1), and Saints (10-3), near the top of their respective Conferences. Mahomes threw for 3 touchdowns on his way to defeating Drew Brees and the Saints 32-29 in a barn burner. I take nothing from this result, with the Chiefs defence vastly improved, whilst their offense has regressed horribly, whereas the Saints are an entirely new outfit, save Alvin Kamara.
The Chiefs were 6.5-point favourites on the lookahead for this matchup, before re-opening as just 5-point favourites. This seemed like a big move for the loss of a wide receiver, and the Chiefs -5 was quickly gobbled up by bettors. The Chiefs got back to -6, before Saints bettors entered the market. The number now sits at Chiefs -5.5, which is likely where this closes. I make the Chiefs a little over 6-point favourites with Rice, so 5.5 seems the logical number to me, and I won’t be attacking the point spread. I would lean towards the Saints, only because the Chiefs are notorious for having close games the past couple of seasons.
The total was 45.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening on the other side off the key off 44 at 43. I do like the under here, and I would make a fair total 41.5. If this got to 44, I would love the under, however at 43 it will be a smaller bet. The Chiefs will be relying heavily on their defence now that Mahomes’ number 1 target Rice is out for the foreseeable future. The Saints offense is at it’s best when Carr has time in the pocket, something I can’t see him having a great deal of against this elite Chiefs defensive front. Chris Jones has been at his destructive best to start the season, and I expect him in Carr’s face all night long.
If the Chiefs can get the start and lead from the front in this game, this game should sail under the total. There’s no team better in second halves than the Chiefs at just maintaining possession and holding their lead. They don’t look to blow teams out in the regular season, and with Rice out their playbook should be quite vanilla. Under is the play.
Looking at prop bets, I’ll take a shot at Travis Kelce getting back into the Chiefs’ number 1 receiver role. If he is back to this, this number is too low. Kelce was averaging 4 targets per game in the opening 3 weeks of the season, with that number bumping up to 9 last week after Rice was lost. Another 9 targets this week will see Kelce over this total.
Prop Bet: Travis Kelce (over) 56.5 receiving yards - $1.90 at Bet365 (1.5u)
Under 43.5 Points
$2.00 (2 Units)
