Week 1 of the 2024/25 NFL Season kicks off with a bang, with arguably the two best teams from last season colliding at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, as the Ravens look to exact revenge over the Chiefs after going down in last season’s AFC Championship Game. After the Chiefs claimed back-to-back Championships, winning their third Super Bowl in five seasons, can they back it up again and go three in a row? Whilst the answer won’t be found out this early, this should still be a huge game and could prove an early season tiebreak for the #1 seed.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our NFL Best Bet. Make sure you are following Before You Bet, as we will have dedicated NFL Match Previews for all prime-time games this season, as well as a preview of the main slate on Mondays. All for free!
And if you haven’t already done so, be sure to check out our NFL Season Preview, with picks for Super Bowl, Divisional, and Award winners for the 2024/25 season!
NFL Week 1 Preview & Betting Tips
Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens
Arrowhead Stadium, Friday 6th September, 10:20am (AEST)
Last Season
It definitely wasn’t the regular season we were expecting from the Chiefs, as they ended as the #3 seed in the AFC with an 11-6 record. They never seemed to hit top gear in the regular season, with losses to the Lions, Broncos, Eagles, Packers, Bills, and Raiders. Mahomes had his worst season statistically as a starter, as he threw for *just* 4183 yards and 27 touchdowns. Added to this, Travis Kelce seemed to take a large step backwards, with his off the field love life seemingly playing a bigger part in his makeup than the team. Eventually though, as all champion teams do, they rose to the top and won the Super Bowl, going through a murderer’s row of teams in the playoffs to get there.
As for the Ravens, they had a tremendous regular season, culminating in a 13-4 record which was the best in the league. They were led by Lamar Jackson, who won his second MVP Award after a stellar campaign. By the end of the regular season, I had the Ravens rated as the best team in football, and they were until they met the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. The Ravens were completely shut down by the Chiefs and will need to get the monkey off their back if they are to go back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2013, before Lamar took over as the team’s leader. Can Lamar become his best version in the playoffs, or are they destined to crash out when the heat is on once again? We shall see.
Injury Report
Kansas City Chiefs
Marquise Brown (WR) – OUT
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB) – OUT
Charles Omenihu / BJ Thompson (DE) – OUT
Baltimore Ravens
Trayvon Mullen / Christian Matthew / Arthur Maulet (CB) – OUT
Keaton Mitchell / Owen Wright (RB) – OUT
Deion Jennings / Malik Hamm (LB) – OUT
Isaiah Washington (WR) – OUT
Rasheen Ali (RB) – Questionable
Adisa Isaac (LB) – Questionable
Match Preview
The well publicised last meeting between the Chiefs and Ravens took place just 7 months ago, as the Chiefs took care of business in the AFC Championship Game at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens closed 3.5-point home favourites for the clash, however lost the turnover battle 3-0 to a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team that you just cannot afford to do that to. The Chiefs just wore the Ravens down, mounting a total of 37:30 minutes of possession, exhausting the Ravens defence and shutting down Ravens’ attacks all game, eventually winning 17-10 and booking their place into Super Bowl LVIII.
Fast forward to week 1 of this season, and the Chiefs opened 2.5-point favourites, with a total of 46.5. Whilst the total hasn’t changed over the past few months, some Chiefs money has come into the market, where they now sit as 3-point favourites, however the +3 is heavily juiced towards the Ravens. For what it’s worth this early in the season, I have these teams rated identically, meaning depending on what rating you give the Chiefs for home field advantage, this number is basically smack on what I would have expected.
The total is 2.5-points higher than the AFC Championship Game, and that’s very easy to understand. Totals in general have increased across the board to kick start things this season, and that would be in no small part to the new kick-off rules that have been introduced to incentivize kick returns. Teams will, on average, be starting their drives from further up the field, in turn increasing totals for games in theory. We took the Chiefs/Lions game last season to go over, but it was nowhere near hitting. Given this, I am a little apprehensive to bet an over here and will look elsewhere for my first play of the season.
Generally, the Chiefs have been money in week 1 since Patrick Mahomes entered the league, however last season they went down at home to the Lions. The Ravens are another team that starts hot, and I have no doubt this season will be no different. Last season, the Chiefs were 0-2 against the spread as home favourites of three points or less, whilst the Ravens were 3-0 against the spread when they were road underdogs. If there was a flat 3 available, I’d consider it for the Ravens, however as there isn’t at this point, I’ll take the underdogs on the money line for better value. It seems crazy betting against the Chiefs at home, but there isn’t a better time than now to get the Super Bowl Champions in my opinion. The Ravens will want revenge, and they have a great chance at an upset here.
For the prop bet, I’ll go with Kelce overs. He will want to show he still has more than enough to offer this season, and he tore this Ravens defence to shreds in the AFC Championship Game last season, catching 11 passes for 116 yards.
Prop Bet: Travis Kelce (60+) receiving yards - $1.98 at Dabble (1u)
Ravens to win
$2.36 (1.5 units)
