It’s the NFC South’s turn to take over Thursday Night Football, as two last start winners go head-to-head as the Bucs head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. The South could be the best three-way battle for the Division title this season, so every intra-division game matters. With the winner of this game set to take the lead in the Division, it doesn’t get much bigger than this. We bring you our full betting preview below!
NFL Week 5 Preview & Betting Tips
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Friday 4th October, 10:15am (AEST)
Last Week
The Falcons took on another NFC South rival last week, sneaking by the Saints 26-24 at home with a last-play 58-yard field goal to Younghoe Koo guiding them home. Amazingly, the Falcons couldn’t manage a single offensive touchdown last week in the win, and there are surely question marks surrounding the team after that display. With superstar running back Bijan Robinson dealing with a hamstring issue, and some serious offensive line issues, the Falcons may have to rely on their defence this week. Troy Anderson was an absolute monster last week for the defence, racking up 16 total tackles, including one for loss, and a pick-6 in the second quarter. Anderson is also under an injury cloud this week for the Falcons, as the news gets worse.
The Bucs were tremendous last week, taking advantage of an Eagles team missing three of their biggest offensive players. The Bucs could have easily rested on their laurels, but they came out and put on an early clinic, leading 14-0 after a quarter and 24-7 at the half. The defence was tremendous, giving up just 158 yards through the air at 3.1 yards per play, whilst Baker Mayfield was back to his best, throwing for 347 yards and two scores, with Mike Evans (94 yards) and Chris Godwin (69 yards) leading the way for the Bucs. The Bucs outgained the Eagles by 220 yards and 2 yards per play, in one of the more dominant wins this season, finishing up 33-16 home winners.
Injury Report
Atlanta Falcons
Bralen Trice / Nate Landman (LB) – OUT
DeMarcco Hellams (SAF) – OUT
Rondale Moore (WR) – OUT
Drew Dalman (C) – OUT
Harrison Hand (CB) – OUT
Bijan Robinson (RB) – Questionable
Ray-Ray McLoud (WR) – Questionable
Kaleb McGary (OT) – Questionable
Troy Anderson (LB) – Questionable
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chase Edmonds (RB) – OUT
Sua Opeta / Silas Dzansi (OL) – OUT
Bryce Hall (CB) – OUT
Trey Palmer / Mike Evans (WR) – Questionable
Vita Vea (NT) – Questionable
William Gholston / Greg Gaines / Calijah Kancey (DT) – Questionable
Jalen McMillan / Kameron Johnson (WR) – Questionable
Tristan Wirfs / Luke Goedeke (OT) – Questionable
Logan Hall (DE) – Questionable
Antoine Winfield Jr. (SAF) – Questionable
Ko Kieft (TE) – Questionable
Match Preview
The Falcons and Bucs first met last season in week 7 in Tampa, with the Bucs closing 3-point home favourites with a total of 37.5. The Falcons managed to sneak home 16-13, despite losing the turnover battle 3-2.
They met again in week 14 in Atlanta, with the Falcons closing short 1.5-point home favourites, with a total of 41.5. It was a huge game for Drake London, who caught 10 passes for 170 yards, but it wasn’t enough as the Bucs snuck home 29-25, however it was really only tight due to a massive fourth quarter from the Falcons.
The Falcons were 3-point favourites on the lookahead for this week’s clash, before re-opening at 2.5 after last weeks results. Tampa money has continued filtering through, to where it is closing in on a pick em (currently 1/1.5). If the Bucs get a good injury report tomorrow, I believe this closes a pick em’. Whilst I’m not a huge fan of betting road dogs on Thursday Night Football, I like what I’ve seen from the Bucs this season. I make them small 0.5-point favourite, and as the wrong team is favoured in my opinion, I like the Bucs on the money line here.
As for the total, it was 43.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening 42.5. It has bumped back up slightly to 43.5, but is still under the key of 44, meaning there hasn’t really been all that much movement. I’d lean towards the under here, but that is more down to the gluttony of Thursday Night Football unders we’ve had lately. My fair total is right around this mark, so I’ll leave it alone.
For a prop, we will go a little left field for TNF, and bet Baker Mayfield to have a 10+ yard rushing attempt. Mayfield has shown over the course of his career he can make yards with his legs when he is flushed out of the pocket. Mayfield has five 10+ yard rushes this season and has at least one 10+ yard rush in all three games he has attempted a run this season. With the Bucs offensive line still banged up, I expect some pressure from the Falcons defence, which should give Mayfield the opportunity to run.
Prop Bet: B Mayfield – Longest rush (10+ yards) - $2.40 at Bet365 (1u)
Bucs to Win
$2.00 (1.5 Units)
