Two teams with some big-name injuries head into Thursday Night Football with their seasons in the balance, as the Broncos head to the Big Easy to take on a Saints outfit that has suffered four straight losses. We’ve been blessed with some huge prime time games to start the season, but sadly that streak comes to an end here. Thankfully, we can bet on the game to make it far more exciting, and that’s exactly what we’re going to do here as we bring you our full betting preview!
NFL Week 7 Preview & Betting Tips
New Orleans Saints vs Denver Broncos
Caesars Superdome, Friday 18th October, 11:15am (AEDT)
Last Week
The Saints were forced to start fifth round rookie Spencer Rattler at quarterback last week against the Bucs at home, and whilst the rookie looked ok early, the Bucs defence eventually figured the rookie out, sacking him five times and intercepting him twice. Of even more concern to the Saints, wide receiver 1 and 2 (Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed) both went down, and it appears as though both will miss this week. So, with no QB1, WR1, or WR2, where are the Saints going to get their points moving forward? On the other side of the ball, the Saints defence conceded 51 points and 594 total yards, which is extremely concerning moving forward. The Saints feel a little like a dead team walking right now.
Looking at the Broncos, they hosted the Chargers in an AFC West matchup last week, and despite going down by 7, 23-16, they were completely dominated. The Chargers led 20-0 at halftime, before going up 23-0 by the end of the third quarter. A couple of late touchdowns didn’t paper over the cracks of an offense that has struggled this season, averaging the fourth least yards per game. The biggest concern coming out of the game though, is the health of stud cornerback Patrick Surtain II. Surtain came out of the game with a concussion, and given the short turnaround, is unlikely to play on Thursday night. Surtain is the best player on a good defence, which could struggle without him.
Injury Report
New Orleans Saints
Cesar Ruiz (G) – DNP (Questionable)
Derek Carr (QB) – DNP (Doubtful)
Chris Olave / Rashid Shaheed (WR) – DNP (Questionable)
Lucas Patrick (C/G) – LP (Questionable)
Pete Werner (LB) – DNP (Questionable)
Tayson Hill (TE) – LP (Questionable)
Payton Turner (DE) – LP (Questionable)
Alvin Kamara (RB) – LP (Questionable)
Nathan Shepherd (DT) – LP (Questionable)
J.T. Gray (S) – LP (Questionable)
Alontae Taylor (CB) – LP (Questionable)
Cedric Wilson Jr. (WR) – LP (Questionable)
Denver Broncos
Patrick Surtain II (CB) – DNP (Questionable)
Alex Palczewski / Mike McGlinchey (OT) – LP (Questionable)
Baron Browning (OLB) – LP (Questionable)
Match Preview
The Broncos and Saints meet once every four years and given the thoughts of both these teams heading into the season, I have no idea why this is a prime-time game. Even if both these teams were at full strength, which they clearly aren’t, there are far better games that could have been picked for this slot. Nevertheless, here we are. As mentioned, the last time these teams met was back in week 12 of the 2020 NFL season. Unbelievably, this game will go down in folk lore, despite the Saints winning easily 31-3. The reason being, that the Broncos were led at quarterback by undrafted free agent WIDE RECEIVER Kendall Hinton, after all Broncos’ quarterbacks were wiped out with COVID. Hinton managed to complete 1 of 9 passes for 13 yards, in what was one of the weirdest games of football I can recall. Obviously, I take absolutely nothing from this result when handicapping this game, but I just thought it was a funny tidbit.
The Saints opened 2-point favourites for this matchup, and after giving up 51 points to the Bucs in week 6 and likely losing both top receivers, the favourite flipped at re-open, with the Broncos coming back as 1-point favourites. Heavy Broncos money has continued flooding into the market, to where they now sit as 2.5-point favourites. I have the Broncos between a 1 and 2.5-point favourite, so I don’t see a tonne of value on the spread with my numbers. However, I very much lean towards the Broncos in this game. The Saints defence has been a train wreck this season (save for their week 1 game against the Panthers), and if the Broncos and Bo Nix can have any success on offense, I think they get the win this week. This is also a great week to be without Surtain, given the Saints offense is going to have to rely on receivers such as Mason Tipton and Bub Means. Unless Alvin Kamara can single-handedly win this game, which I don’t see happening against this quality Broncos run defence, the road team should be good enough here.
Looking at the total, it was 38 on the lookahead, before dropping to 37 at re-open. It still sits at 37, and to be honest I can’t figure out what to do with the total. My numbers would make the over a bet, with a fair total on this game 41.5 according to them, however with no Derek Carr or receivers playing for the Saints, there’s too much uncertainty.
As for a prop bet, I like anything Alvin Kamara in the pass game this week. There aren’t many props listed at the moment, given the uncertainty about Saints offensive players, however there’s enough to make a bet now. The Broncos over the last 5 games have conceded the most receptions to opposing running backs, the third most targets to opposing running backs, and the 11th most receiving yards per game to running backs. With nothing else to throw to, I expect Rattler to use Kamara regularly this week. Kamara averages 6 targets were game, however that number has been bumped up to 8.33 over the past three weeks. He can get this number is what play.
Prop Bet: Alvin Kamara (over) 33.5 yards - $1.87 at Ladbrokes (2u)
Broncos to Win
$1.80 (2 Units)
