The penultimate week in the NFL regular season kicks off with two of the absolute best defences in the NFL, as the Jets head to Cleveland to take on the Browns. With the Jets’ season over, and the Browns looking for a win to guarantee their place in the playoffs, it will be interesting to see if the Jets’ defence can make a game of this, because if the defence doesn’t show up, this could be a blowout.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our NFL Best Bet. Make sure you are following Before You Bet, as we will have dedicated NFL betting tips for all primetime NFL games this season, as well as a preview of the main NFL slate on Mondays. All for free!
NFL Week 17 Preview & Betting Tips
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns Stadium, Friday 29th December, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Jets were involved in one of the crazier games of week 16, as they jumped out to a 27-7 lead just before halftime. The Commanders stormed back to make a game of it, taking the lead 28-27 with just under 5 minutes remaining in the game. It took a 54-yard field goal from Greg Zuerlein to win the game for the Jets, with 10 seconds left on the clock. Breece Hall was the Jets offense, as he rushed for 95 yards and two touchdowns, to go along with 12 receptions for 96 yards. Without him, this Jets offense doesn’t exist.
As for the Browns, they took on the Texans in a game with massive playoff implications last week. With no CJ Stroud for the Texans, the Browns were 3-point favourites, but straight away it looked as though they should have been 10-point favourites. Leading 22-7 at halftime, the Browns were never in trouble, with Joe Flacco once again dominant, throwing for 368 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, whilst Amari Cooper had a career-game, catching 11 balls for 265 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns have now won 3-straight and look to be a tough out for whoever they inevitably take on in week 1 of the playoffs.
Injury Report
Cleveland Browns
Jacob Phillps / Anthony Walker (LB) – OUT
Nick Chubb (RB) – OUT
Jakeem Grant / Michael Woods II (WR) – OUT
Jack Conklin / Jedrick Wills / Dawand Jones / Drew Forbes (OT) – OUT
Deshaun Watson (QB) / Dorian Thompson-Robertson – OUT
Rodney McLeod (FS) – OUT
Maurice Hurst (DT) – OUT
Grant Delpit (SS) – OUT
Obo Okoronkwo (DE) – OUT
Dustin Hopkins (K) - OUT
Corey Bojorquez (P) – Questionable
Amari Cooper / Marquise Goodwin (WR) – Questionable
Juan Thornhill (FS) – Questionable
New York Jets
Bradlee Anae / Ifeadi Odenigbo / Quinton Jefferson (DE) – OUT
Chuck Clark (DB) – OUT
Alijah Vera-Tucker / Wes Schweitzer / Connor McGovern (OG) – OUT
Al Woods (DT) – OUT
C.J. Uzomah / Jeremy Ruckert (TE) – OUT
Zaire Barnes (LB) – OUT
Aaron Rodgers (QB) / Zach Wilson – OUT
Duane Brown (OT) – OUT
Allen Lazard (WR) – Questionable
Israel Abanikanda (RB) – Questionable
Match Preview
These teams last met in week 2 last season, with the Jets eking out a 31-30 victory on the road in Cleveland. Interestingly, Browns’ quarterback Joe Flacco was playing for the Jets at the time, and he torched the Browns’ defence, throwing for 307 yards and four touchdowns. I don’t take a great deal from this game, with two new quarterbacks and both teams with completely different motivations.
The Browns were 5-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening as 7-point favourites. No doubt this is on the back of the fantastic offensive performance by the Browns, but also the fact Trevor Siemian is starting for the Jets, and not Zach Wilson. I make the Browns an 8-point favourite, and the market is definitely moving in that direction, with the Browns now sitting as 7.5-point favourites. With Amari Cooper listed as questionable, this would be the main reason I wouldn’t look at betting the Browns. The Browns have been a perfect 5-0 at home against the spread, whilst the Jets are 0-3 as 7+ point road underdogs at covering.
As for the total, it was 35.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening at 36.5. This has been bet down to 35, and despite how good these teams are defensively, I don’t mind the over here. The Browns’ offense has been cooking with Flacco, however I’m a little concerned with the Jets’ offense helping this total. The Browns could easily score 21+, but if the Jets can’t score 14 then this isn’t a bet. The Jets’ defence on the road hasn’t been as good as it has been at home, conceding over 23 points per game. With weather not predicted to be too bad in Cleveland, I like the Browns to score 3+ touchdowns here and go over their total.
Cleveland Browns (team total) over 20.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
