The Blue Diamond Stakes is the premier Group 1 race for juveniles in Melbourne, and it’s one of three Group 1 races that headline a huge day of racing at Caulfield this Saturday, February 24th.
We’ve taken a detailed look at the race and offered our selections below!
2018 BLUE DIAMOND STAKES – 1200M
HISTORICAL FACTORS
Favoured runners have a great record in recent years, with the longest priced winner of the past seven years being Pride Of Dubai in 2015, who was a $6 chance. Five of those seven winners have been favourites, with the only other non-favourite to win being last year’s winner Catchy, who started $4.80 and beat the favourite Pariah. Wide barriers shouldn’t be feared; three of the last four winners have started from barriers 11, 11 and 15. Seven of the last eight winners had their last start at Caulfield. Of this year’s final field, only Prairie Fire and Qafila didn’t have their last start at Caulfield (both at Flemington), but 2010 winner Star Witness won the Talindert Stakes on his way to winning the Blue Diamond, which is exactly what Prairie Fire will be attempting to do.
TEMPO & SPEED MAP
Trying to piece together the puzzle that is the speed map is quite difficult, in terms of trying to predict where runners will position during the run, but I’m fairly confident this will be run at a hot tempo. It’s a high-pressure, million-dollar juvenile race, and there is an abundance of speed runners in the race. Two of the four Hayes runners could control the race. (13) Ennis Hill will be looking to kick up from barrier 4, while (10) Enbihaar will be looking to get across from barrier 15. (2) Written By will go forward from his wide gate, with (9) Grand Symphony kicking up from barrier 5. The most interesting one to watch out of the barriers will be (11) Kinky Boom, who blew the jump on debut but could sit much further forward if she jumps well. (1) Long Leaf and (9) Plague Stone both map to get lovely runs forward of midfield. (12) Lady Horseowner and (14) Crossing The Abbey should find cover in midfield. (5) Ollivander may be three or four pairs back on the rail in an awkward position. (16) Oohood has been jumping poorly and lacking early speed, so she’ll settle back in the field but does look to get a nice cart into it. (6) Encryption should find the three-wide running line along with the likes of (15) Qafila and (7) Native Soldier, who draws widest of all. The horse least advantaged by the draw looks to be (4) Prairie Fire in barrier 1. He will get a long way back and need plenty of luck from the back, with only (3) Run Naan likely to be as far back as him.
RUNNER-BY-RUNNER ANALYSIS
(1) Long Leaf | $7: Brings a similar profile to the race as his stablemate Catchy, who won the race last year. Undefeated from three starts so far, the latest of which was a victory in the G3 Chairman’s Stakes first up from a 70-day break. That’s the race Extreme Choice won on his way to victory in the 2016 Blue Diamond. He hasn’t won by a big margin in any of his three starts, but he’s been strong to the line in every one, indicating the step up from 1000m to 1200m now will suit him. Right stable (they’ve won eight Blue Diamonds!), right jockey, great barrier. Hard to beat.
(2) Written By | $10: Really like this horse. Won very well on debut at the start of December and returned from a break in outstanding fashion when winning the Prelude. That win backed up a sensational trial win, and he had to do it the tough way by sitting three-wide without cover on speed. He draws poorly here in barrier 14 but they’ll look to use similar tactics to last start, though it would be ideal if he could find cover for some part of the race. I think he’s a very smart colt and after backing him first up in the Prelude, I’m sticking with him at double-figure odds here.
(3) Run Naan | $21: Won his first two career starts in great style, but has since gone off the boil a little bit. Long Leaf and Ollivander had his cover in the Preview two starts ago, and he was soundly beaten by Written By last start, despite making nice headway running into 5th. He maps very poorly here from an inside barrier as he looks one of the few horses with a lack of early speed. Happy to risk him.
(4) Prairie Fire | $9.50: Keen to take him on here. Sound on debut behind Ennis Hill and Encryption, before the blinkers sparked him into a convincing victory in the Talindert Stakes last weekend. As mentioned above, that’s the race 2010 winner Star Witness won on his way to the Blue Diamond. While the strength of his victory last weekend was enough to see him be a legitimate winning chance here, here’s why I think he is vulnerable today. In his two starts to date, he’s shown a lack of early speed and settled back in the field, but he drew barrier 6 of 7 on debut, and started from barrier 10 of 10 last week. That allowed him an uninterrupted run on both occasions. But it’s a different story here. He draws barrier 1 and maps to settle a long way back and strung up on the rail. He’s likely going to have to navigate his way through traffic and tiring horses, unless they ride him dead cold and pull him to the outside, but I doubt that will happen. He’ll get a tempo to suit, but that barrier is a severe disadvantage for him in my opinion.
(5) Ollivander | $31: Could be one of the best roughies in the race. Won very well on debut back in December before being sent for a short break. Returned with an eye-catching effort behind Long Leaf when closing hard to be beaten half-a-length, but put in a horrible effort last start in the Prelude when beaten nearly 9L by Written By. He seems to have bounced back from that with a solid gallop during the week and if he were to reproduce his efforts prior to last start, he’d be very competitive in this at big odds.
(6) Encryption | $21: Has run well in all three starts to date, the latest being a 1.5L defeat at the hands of Ennis Hill. Has a bit to do to turn that margin around given the winner still had a bit in hand and draws much better than Encryption here, who starts from barrier 12. Damian Lane keeps the ride which is a positive, but prefer others.
(7) Native Soldier | $21: Belted the C-graders at the Valley two starts ago before running admirably to finish 3rd behind Written By and Plague Stone last start. Has a bit to make up on those two and hasn’t been done any favours by the barrier draw. Zahra also jumps off to ride Prairie Fire. Will likely get back but gets the blinkers back on for this race. Purely because of the Weir factor, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him running home into a place, but he looks short of the better horses.
(8) Plague Stone | $8: Good run at his first Melbourne start when finishing off nicely to be beaten 0.5L by Written By. Sure to have improvement in him from that run and with the experience of the Melbourne way of going under his belt, he should be a big player here. Draws ideally in barrier 6, which will allow him to settle close enough to midfield. I have others ahead but the Godolphin stable is firing at the right time and I expect him to be very competitive.
(9) Grand Symphony | $41: Very good on debut behind Kinky Boom was simply outclassed. That was a restricted race for Inglis horses so the class of the race is probably behind the Preludes/Previews, so he appears to be a legitimate roughie. Should be right up on speed from the good barrier which gives him some place claims, but prefer others.
(10) Enbihaar | $21: Could be the horse to really inject the speed here from barrier 15. Somewhat surprise winner of the Fillies’ Prelude, though she was well backed before the jump. Hard to argue with the form given she beat Oohood, who is a $9 chance here, but Baster jumps off her to ride the stablemate Ennis Hill, so she looks to be less fancied than a couple of the stable’s other chances.
(11) Kinky Boom | $9: Could be the X-factor horse in the race. She made headlines when bolting in to win a trial by 8.5L before her debut, and she backed up that trial with a super impressive win in the Inglis Premier three weeks ago, despite blowing the start. That was a restricted race so class-wise it rates below the likes of the Prelude/Preview, but she was very good, and had she jumped better she may have won even easier. It also showed her tactical versatility, which is important given she’s drawn 11 here. The last two winners of the Diamond have jumped from that barrier, and Craig Williams locked himself in to ride her straight after her debut win. Has to be considered a big chance.
(12) Lady Horseowner | $21: Hard to knock her form given she’s won two from two, including a last-start victory over the likes of Oohood. The boys ran a slightly faster time on the day of her last victory. She recorded a winning time of 57.82 while Long Leaf’s winning time was 57.70, so she looks to have a few lengths to make up on the boys. Should be able to slot in midfield from barrier 10. Place chance best.
(13) Ennis Hill | $9: Looks a serious chance. Expect her to kick up and lead from barrier 4, and how long she remains in front will be purely dependent on how fast she’s made to go in front. If she gets pressured the whole race she may struggle to fight them off late, but if she gets away with leading at her own leisure, they could well struggle to run her down. Dominant winner of the G3 Chairman’s Stakes last start, which is the race Extreme Choice won before winning the 2016 Blue Diamond. Ran 57.02 for the 1000m on that occasion, so her times stack up, but she also has to tick the 1200m box here.
(14) Crossing The Abbey | $41: Good when defeating Khulaasa three starts ago at Flemington, who has since run 2nd to Prairie Fire. Sound two starts back behind Lady Horseowner, but outclassed in what looks an inferior race last start. Should get a good run from barrier 8 but would be a shock to see her feature in the finish here.
(15) Qafila | $31: Really like this filly and David Hayes said she could be the best filly to come out of this race long term. She was a very good winner on debut back in October, before flashing into 4th from a long way back at her second start. She’s been off the scene since then and comes into the Diamond first up from a spell. No horse has ever won the Diamond first up. She’ll also be getting a long way back from barrier 13, but if they go hard up front, this will be one filly motoring home late. Don’t take too much notice of her recent trial – she wore blinkers but resented them, and has apparently trialled superbly since then without the blinkers on. Good roughie but has to defy history.
(16) Oohood | $9: Continues to jump away slowly, which has probably cost her in all three career starts. Comes through what looks to be an inferior form race, but she’ll eat up the 1200m here and will relish a hot tempo up front. Should be able to get a nice cart into the race from barrier 9, and I expect her to be hitting the line hard down the outside. Tony McEvoy gave her a big push during the week and it wouldn’t shock me to see her win, but does she do too much wrong?
SUMMARY
I think the colts have the wood on the fillies this year, and I’m sticking with (2) Written By to remain undefeated. He was super impressive first up in the Prelude when getting no favours in the run. Will put himself into the race and despite the wide draw, I think he’s a decent each way bet here at $10. (1) Long Leaf has proven he just knows how to win. He’s from the right stable, has the right jockey and draws perfectly. (13) Ennis Hill is a speedy filly that will be in front for a long way, while (8) Plague Stone and (16) Oohood will be hitting the line hard. (15) Qafila is the best roughie in the race at $31. (11) Kinky Boom the X-factor. Taking on (4) Prairie Fire.
SELECTIONS
1ST (2) WRITTEN BY
2ND (1) LONG LEAF
3RD (13) ENNIS HILL
4TH (11) OOHOOD
