Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, February 3rd.
We have a nine-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the 9m position, which is an extra 3m further out than it was last week. On-pace is generally best but the track played fairly last week.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. If you haven’t already, take a listen to Episode 20 of the Before You Bet Podcast and see which races at Caulfield and Rosehill Tim is keenest to bet into.
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 Snitty Kitty
Best Value: Race 7 Archery Peak EW
RACE 1
This is a very tough race to start off with, with five of the seven runners on debut. (5) Kinky Boom trialled the house down in Adelaide, winning by 8.5L, and comes up $2.35 favourite here. While the trial was impressive, I think that quote is awfully short. She trialled Monday, travelled to Melbourne Thursday and has to race Saturday. That’s a big ask for a two-year-old having her first race start. Interestingly, Jamie Kah rode her in the trial but sticks with the stablemate (4) Aristocratic Miss, who gets blinkers applied for the first time after finishing 3rd first up last start. (7) Queen’s Authority jumped out particularly well at Flemington, showing great speed to lead before cruising to the line under a grip while the horses behind were under pressure. From barrier 6 she may be able to kick up and hold out Kinky Boom, in which case she’d give a bold sight at the $8 on offer. (1) Messerschmitt ran well on debut back in October and returned to the track with a good win at Ballarat two Wednesday’s ago. Though it was only Wednesday grade, it looked a reasonable field so he should measure up here. (6) Melveen was only fair in its jumpout, while both (2) Grand Symphony and (3) Grand Khan are unseen.
TIP: (7) Queen’s Authority EW
RACE 2
Much like the first race, this is a difficult one with four debutantes in a field of seven runners. Going to stick with a runner that’s got race experience in (3) Logan River. In many ways, this horse profiles very similarly to his stablemate Sanctimonious, who was backed off the map at Moonee Valley last night and duly saluted. This horse ran 3rd on debut in the same race as Sanctimonious on heavy ground at Sandown, before travelling to Sydney to tackle a decent race. On that occasion he did plenty wrong throughout the race, and he’s now had seven weeks off leading into today. He gets the blinkers on first time and for the first time in his career he draws a good barrier, so back on firm ground, freshened up and with the shades on I expect him to give this a good shake at $6. (6) Ennis Hill is a horse I backed on debut and she was only fair, but the race was strong and she also gets the blinkers on first time so it’d be no surprise to see her improve sharply. (5) Sunset Watch showed good speed in her jumpouts and should roll forward from the wide gate. Not overly keen on Dwayne Dunn on a leader, and the stable aren’t exactly flying at the moment. (9) Of Importance jumped out reasonably well and can settle on speed from the inside gate. (1) Encryption contested a couple of decent races back in the Spring and wasn’t far off so with the good draw can be competitive.
TIP: (3) Logan River EW
RACE 3
(2) Twitchy Frank is flying with three wins from four career starts, and Weir can keep these going through a deep preparation. This is an almost identical type of race to what it faced last start when winning at Flemington, and from barrier 2 it should either lead or box seat. Looks hard to beat at $2.75. (5) Lucky Cat is the other Weir horse in the race and looks as if it will be greatly suited by the step up to 1400m. Drops 5kg in weight from last start when flashing home for 3rd, and with D Lane on from a good barrier you have to respect the horse. Definitely saving on it at $6.50. (3) Paris Rock has been very impressive in winning both career starts, particularly the latest at Ballarat when clearing out by 3.75L. Both horses that ran 2nd to Paris Rock in its two starts have gone on to win their next start, which is always a good sign. Should be very competitive but we’ve got to take one of them on and I’m more convinced by the fact Twitchy Frank has proved itself in this sort of grade.
TIP: (2) Twitchy Frank
RACE 4
Only three I’m interested in here. (5) Last Week is a clear top pick based on what it did last start. I was keen to take it on that day given it was stepping up from 2000m to 2500m, but it put the field away easily, and with that run over 2500m under the belt, it could be in even better shape for today’s 2400m race. The value is clearly (1) Sayed, who is much better suited today than it was first or second up. First up it was over an unsuitable distance of 1700m, and second up he always tends to race a bit flat. Third up now (has won his only third up run) and up to his best distance (three starts at 2400m for two wins and a 2nd) should see him begin to hit his straps. $7 on offer, we may get even better tomorrow but expect him to run a big race. (4) Al Haram is progressing with each run, as European imports tend to do. He is another horse that was 2000m up to 2500m last start, so with the run under his belt, and fourth up from a spell, he should be giving this a good shake. Gets a 3kg weight swing on Last Week which will help his cause. Backing Last Week with something on Sayed.
TIP: (5) Last Week / (1) Sayed EW
RACE 5
Really only two I’m interested in here and I’m very excited to see the race. (12) Eurack is undefeated from three starts and I’m tipping they’ll have her very forward for this race because they’ll be keen to keep the picket fence intact. She was very impressive in her first two starts before racing just a touch flat at her third start, but she still managed to win and she was sent for a spell straight away. She’s one of just two rides on the day for Ben Melham and I don’t think the $3 will last long at all. The key for me is the 4.5kg weight difference between her and (1) Handsome Thief. This Weir-trained horse is one I really, really like, and had he not had 60kg in this, I’d have found it much harder to split them. The big weight and the awkward draw could make it hard for him, but I almost guarantee he would have won a race at Flemington a couple weeks back had he not been scratched. I think he’s returned in suer order this prep and it wouldn’t shock me at all to see him win. I’ll be building my book around Eurack at $3 and Handsome Thief at $4. (2) Star Stealer is the stable mate to Handsome Thief and comes off a dominant 5.5L win at Kilmore. As I say every week, Weir just gets them to keep that country form when they come to the city, and we often see the less-fancied Weir horse roll the favoured runner, so I’d keep it safe.
TIP: (12) Eurack
RACE 6
(3) Snitty Kitty looks the best bet of the day here. She’s a winner of five of her last seven races, and six of 11 overall. She had two starts last preparation and both were dominant wins. She’s got a terrific first up record with two wins from three starts, including last prep when carrying 60kg, and she’s won four from five at the distance, including one at this track and distance. I think she’s a genuine Oakleigh Plate contender and if that’s the case, she should be taking care of this field. I think the $1.90 on offer is very backable. (1) Crystal Dreamer has won two on the bounce and is another horse with a terrific record at this distance, but 60kg could find him out. If (7) Lady Esprit could rediscover her form from earlier this prep she’d be a blowout chance.
TIP: (3) Snitty Kitty
RACE 7
I don’t like this race purely based on how the market is shaped. I’ve got (9) Bedford on top but I didn’t expect it to be $2.30. His last start win was enormous but it was Wednesday grade and he has to step up to Saturday grade here, and the horse he beat last start did absolutely nothing at Moonee Valley last night. Despite that, he drops significantly in weight here from 58kg to 54kg and stays at the same track and distance as his 6L win, and given he’s two from two at the distance he rates highly. The real smokey in the race is (4) Archery Peak at $41. I backed this horse first up, and he actually loomed up at about the 200m mark but really hit a brick wall in the final furlong. Perhaps he was well short of where he needed to be fitness-wise. He may still need one more run, but he ran 3rd second up last prep and gets to 2000m here which will help. He could sit further forward from barrier 1 and he’s still only lightly raced so I’d be throwing him in everything. (3) Portion Control is knocking on the door to win another race and gets back to his pet track and distance. (2) Willi Willi had the race handed to him on a platter last start. I am very wary of him here as he’s an improving type that’s only fourth up, and he draws well, but he may have been a bit flattered by the lack of tempo last start. (1) O’lonera not hopeless.
TIP: (9) Bedford / (4) Archery Peak EW
RACE 8
Keen on (9) I Did It Again here, who is a horse I’ve got plenty of time for and one that I’ve backed in every career start so far. He won well on debut and should have won again at his second start. The last time we saw him was back in October when he ran last, beaten 4L, in a very good race behind the likes of Formality and Jukebox. He pulled up poorly from that and resumes here fresh from a few months off. I think they’ll have him ready to go here and if he’s back to his best, expect him to give this a good shake. Damien Oliver takes the ride and he’s had a big week in the saddle as Group 1 races loom. Taking $4.20. (10) Bravo Tango was the obvious eye-catcher behind the impressive Nature Strip at Flemington last start, which was his first run back from a spell. He won his first two starts and was competitive in a good race last preparation, and he looks to have returned super. Draws well and is Ben Melham’s only other ride for the day after Eurack, so he obviously has big claims here. I’d be prepared to take on (1) Cliff’s Edge first up over 1200m given last time we saw him he was racing over 2000m. (2) Veranillo might be over the odds – he was smashed in betting first up but just came up short. The form out of the race has been franked through Angry Gee. (3) Overshare is another over the odds. Caught in the worst part of the track first up at Flemington in that same race behind Nature Strip. Could lead from barrier 11 and will be hard to catch. (11) Poseidon’s Pool not hopeless first up at big odds.
TIP: (9) I Did It Again / (3) Overshare EW
RACE 9
(12) The Avenger will be scratched here after running at Moonee Valley on Friday night, which leaves me with just two horses I want to back. (13) Trogir goes on top and I’m pretty happy with the $5.50 we’re getting. This Adelaide horse has had his last two starts in Melbourne (we’ve backed him in both), winning the first one at good odds before just going down narrowly last start. That was a great run though, given he was caught three-wide without cover for most of the race. Senior rider Regan Bayliss takes over from Chris Caserta here which is a big plus, and from the good gate he should be capable of winning this. (5) Malaise was a rare Melbourne city winner for Godolphin when saluting at Flemington last start, backing up a sound win in Sydney the start prior. The horse he defeated last start was Wise Hero so I think that’s a good form line, and once again, he sat wide without cover for large parts of the race. Draws wide again here and will need a better ride given he goes up 3kg in weight, but I’m happy to take $6 about him. (14) Call Me Handsome won his last start but still needs to convince me. The race he won was only a BM70 on a Sunday at Sale, and he draws poorly here. It’s also his first go at 1400m. (15) Manolo Blahniq possibly had an excuse last start when caught in the worst part of the track, but he’s now had 11 goes on good ground and is yet to win one, with an overall record of one win from 16 starts.
TIP: (13) Trogir / (5) Malaise EW
QUADDIE
3
1, 2, 3, 4, 9
2, 3, 9, 10, 11
5, 10, 13, 14
$100 = 100%
Always Gamble Responsibly.
