The AFC East takes centre stage is what looks like a battle between the two best teams in the Division, as the Buffalo Bills look to snap a two-game losing streak against the New York Jets, who have monopolised the news cycle this week with the firing of Head Coach Robert Saleh, and the on-going speculation about wantaway star receiver Davante Adams. With the winner set to take the lead in the Division, this is a massive clash that is not to be missed. As always, we have a full preview and best bets below!
NFL Week 6 Preview & Betting Tips
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills
MetLife Stadium, Tuesday 15th October, 11:15am (AEDT)
Last Week
The Jets travelled across the pond last week, taking on the Vikings at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. And whilst the final score made it look like the Jets kept things close with the 5-0 Vikings, the reality looked quite a bit different. Rodgers threw for an early pick 6, before throwing another pick on the Jets’ next offensive drive. The Vikings scored with 4 minutes left in the second quarter to go up 17-0. The Jets managed to claw their way back to a 23-17 scoreline, with Aaron Rodgers getting the ball with 3 minutes left in the game with a chance at a game winning drive. Rodgers took the Jets down to the Vikings’ 26, before throwing his third interception of the game for the Vikings to win, 23-17, handing the Jets their second straight loss.
As for the Bills, they headed to Houston to take on another one of the AFC powerhouses in the Texans. Josh Allen struggled mightily throughout the game, going 9/30 on his passes, throwing for only 131 yards and a touchdown. The Bills were probably lucky to only lose by 3, as their defence struggled to stop the Texans early, before Nico Collins limped off with a hamstring injury, severely limiting the Texans’ offense. Like Rodgers, Allen had the chance late to either go for the win or push for overtime, but some poor play calling and even worse execution by Allen saw the Bills go down 23-20.
Injury Report
New York Jets
Malik Taylor (WR) – OUT
Jermaine Johnson II (OLB) – OUT
Leki Fotu (DT) – Questionable
Michael Carter II (CB) – Questionable
Kenny Yeboah (TE) – Questionable
Wes Schweitzer (OG) – Questionable
Aaron Rodgers (QB) – Questionable
C.J. Mosley / Zaire Barnes (LB) – Questionable
Morgan Moses (OT) – Questionable
Tyler Conklin (TE) – Questionable
Buffalo Bills
Tylan Grable / Tommy Doyle / Travis Clayton (OT) – OUT
Matt Milano (OLB) – OUT
Mack Hollins / Curtis Samuel / Khalil Shakir (WR) – Questionable
James Cook (RB) – Questionable
Austin Johnson (NT) – Questionable
Ed Oliver (DT) – Questionable
Taron Johnson (CB) – Questionable
Match Preview
The Bills and Jets have split their meetings over the past two seasons, with both teams managing a win and a loss for seasons 2022/23, and 2023/24. Last season, the teams first met in week 1 in New York, where the Bills came in as 2.5-point road favourites in what was Aaron Rodgers’ first start for the Jets. Famously, Rodgers went down during the first offensive drive for the Jets, with Zach Wilson coming in at quarterback. The Jets, despite the loss of Rodgers, managed to win 22-16 in overtime, off the back of their defence forcing four turnovers, including three picks off Josh Allen. The teams met again in week 11, with the Bills exacting revenge on the Jets, destroying their rivals 32-6 as 8.5-point favourites. The total for both games went under.
Looking towards their Monday Night Football clash, and the Bills were short 1.5-point favourites on the lookahead, before pushing out slightly to 2.5 at re-open. The number has bounced between 1.5 and 2.5 all week, with the Bills currently 2.5-point road favourites at the time of writing. I make this much closer to a pick em’, however with a change at Head Coach and the travel back from England, I’m slightly put off with betting the Jets. I would lean towards betting the Jets, but I don’t have the conviction to bet them at +2.5. If it gets to +3, I would imagine I’ll click the button.
Moving onto the total, and it was 44.5 on the lookahead, before dropping to 42.5 on re-open. The total has continued dropping, to where we now sit at 41. Despite this massive drop, I still like the under here. I make a fair total 37.5, with both teams’ offenses trending down. Whilst the Jets do have a new offensive play caller, I don’t believe it’s going to be enough to get this total to go over. The Jets have averaged a closing total of 41 points this season, with their current record sitting at 1 over, 1 push, and 3 unders. I like them to go under again this week.
Looking towards props, and given we are keen on the under here, it makes prop betting a little bit harder. However, I believe Breece Hall is a name we can back this week, and it’s not in the rushing department. Hall is averaging 5.6 targets per game, and 4.25 receptions per game. But it’s not Hall’s numbers that excite me, it’s the Bills defensive numbers. The Bills are giving up over 7 receptions per game to running backs, and over 60 receiving yards per game to running backs. If you have the gumption, take this up to 5, but I’ll just take the over 3.5 receptions for Breece Hall as an official play this week.
Prop Bet: Breece Hall (over) 3.5 receptions - $1.83 at Unibet (2u)
Under 41 points
$1.91 (2.5 Units) Bet365
