A second straight Monday Night Football double header in week 4, as things kick off with the Titans heading to Miami to take on the Dolphins, with both teams struggling to stay afloat this season. The main even kicks off 45 minutes later in Mo-Town, as the 3-0 Seahawks head to Detroit to take on the Lions, in what should be a cracking NFC matchup. We bring you our best bets for both games below!
NFL Week 4 Tuesday Preview & Betting Tips
Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans
Hard Rock Stadium, Tuesday 1st October, 9:30am (AEST)
Last Week
It was an absolute horror show last week for the Dolphins, with the offense unable to get anything going with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa out due to concussion. Skylar Thompson managed to get through two and a half quarters, before leaving the game with a rib injury, bringing in Tim Boyle at QB. The result was ongoing poor play, and it’s hard to see exactly where this team gets their offense moving forward without a change under center. Tyreek Hill managed just three catches for 40 yards, in a stat line that conveys just how poor the Dolphins were offensively.
It wasn’t much better for the Titans, who fell to 0-3 off the back of a 30-14 loss to the Packers and their backup QB Malik Willis. Will Levis again looked like a yo-yo at QB, looking solid in places before throwing back breaking interceptions, to end the day with 260 yards through the air, throwing for two touchdowns and two picks, whilst fumbling on one of his carries. With an anaemic running game, it’s up to Levis to win the game for the Titans this week, which surely can’t feel good for Titans’ backers.
Match Preview
Who can forget the last time these teams met, back in week 14 of last season on Sunday Night Football, with Will Levis announcing himself to the league with a come-from-behind 28-27 victory over the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. After trailing 27-13 with just under five minutes remaining, Will Levis put together two straight touchdown drives, and an extra point, to get the Titans home. What made the win all the more impressive, was the fact the Titans closed massive 13.5-point favourites, and whilst Miami backers were feeling good with only five minutes left, it was the Titans bettors who saluted.
Fast forward to this weekend, and the Dolphins were short 1.5-point favourites on the lookahead, however after their inept display on offense in week 3, the number flipped to Titans -1 after the week 3 games. This has once again flipped through the week, to where the Dolphins are 1-point favourite. To be honest, there’s not a huge amount between 1-point favourites each way, so these moves aren’t huge. I make the Dolphins over 3-point favourites, but I’m worried I haven’t downgraded them enough. However, if Tyler Huntley starts at quarterback on Monday night, I love the Dolphins to get the win here.
As for the prop bet, even though Tyreek Hill struggled last week, his receiving yards prop bet is simply far too low. Given his high upside, I’ll even take an alternate over to up the price a bit.
Prop Bet: Tyreek Hill (75+) receiving yards - $3.25 at Unibet (1u)
Dolphins to Win
$1.85 (2 Units)
Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks
Paycor Stadium, Tuesday 24th September, 10:15am (AEST)
Last Week
The Lions came away with the win last week against the Cardinals, but it wasn’t as convincing as I’m sure they were hoping for. It looked as though the Lions from last season had finally resurfaced, as the Lions shot out to a 20-7 lead heading into the last 30 seconds of the first half. Unfortunately, the second half for the Lions wasn’t as impressive, and for a team that was one of the best on offense last season, the drop has been noticeable. Conversely, the Lions defence has looked great to start the season, leading me to believe that this team is looking to change its identity back to smash mouth football.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, cruised to a third-straight win last week, smashing the Dolphins 24-3. The cynic in me would say the Seahawks have had a cupcake schedule, but you can only beat who is in front of you, and there’s no doubt first year Head Coach Mike Macdonald has this defence humming. Geno Smith was careless at times last week with the ball, throwing two picks whilst throwing for 289 yards and a touchdown. Kenneth Walker remains questionable this week, with Zach Charbonnet providing his best performance of his career last week, running for 91 yards and 2 scores.
Match Preview
These teams met back in week 2 of last season in Detroit, with the Lions closing 4.5-point favourites at home. It was a track meet from the start, with the Seahawks eventually getting the better of the Lions in overtime, coming home 37-32 winners. Both quarterbacks threw for over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns, in a highly entertaining affair that we hope to get again this Monday night.
As for this contest, the Lions opened 4-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening at 4.5. Seahawks money steadily came into the market throughout the week, moving the Lions down to 3.5-point favourites. I have the Lions as solid 5-point favourites in this contest, so the 3.5 is tempting to me right now.
The total opened 48 on the lookahead, before re-opening at 48.5 on Monday after the games. The under has been bet heavily, with the total all the way down through the key of 47 to where it now sits at 46.5. I would lean the over between these teams, however with Macdonald running that Seahawks defensive scheme, I’m a little turned off by the total.
So, the bet is Lions -3.5. This could easily be Lions by 3, so I won’t be betting big here, but I feel the Lions will get the job done at home.
Looking to the prop bet, and I like DK Metcalf to blast through his receiving yard total this week. The Lions play man coverage at an exceptionally high rate, and DK is extremely tough to hold one on one.
Prop Bet: DK Metcalf (over) 62.5 receiving yards - $1.88 at Ladbrokes (1.5u)
Lions -3.5
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
