It’s the final week of the 2023-24 NFL season, and we have a mammoth 13-game slate on Monday morning to dive into. With many teams having nothing to play for, defence could be optional in several games this week. With many teams resting their big-name players, there could be some interesting selections this week for our fantasy teams.
Draftstars has a $15,000 contest, with a $1,133 first prize. There are plenty of other contests for everyone to get involved. And if you’re really keen on a chance to win big, there’s a $20 contest with the winner gaining entry into the $150k NFL Star Final. Bring it on! Let’s kick things off.
NFL 2023-24 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 18
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott - $18,180
Dak shredded this Commanders defence in week 12, throwing for 331 yards and four touchdowns, on his way to 35 points. Whilst I don’t know if this is possible again, the Cowboys and Dak should be able to put up a score against a Commanders defence that has nothing to play for. Dak leads the league this season in passing touchdowns and ranks fourth in passing yards. Meanwhile, since week 12 the Commanders have allowed the second-highest passer rating, the sixth-most passing yards per game, and the seventh-highest yards per attempt.
Geno Smith - $13,540
Whilst Geno doesn’t have the ceiling of Prescott, I believe his floor is higher, given the chance that Dak gets rested if the Cowboys get out to a quick start against the Commanders. The Seahawks need a win this week to keep their playoff hopes alive, and they get to take on a Cardinals team that has been beaten all season by opposing quarterbacks. Smith only managed 15 points against the Cardinals back in week 7, as the Seahawks beat the Cardinals 20-10. I expect more this week from this offense, with Smith playing better since week 10, ranking fourth in passing yards per game, ninth in passer rating and hero throw rate, and 11th in yards per attempt. Against a defence that since week 12 have allowed the most passing touchdowns, highest passer rating and highest CPOE, expect a big game from this passing offense.
Runnings Backs
Rachaad White - $15,180
White and the Buccaneers have a win and in matchup this week, and they couldn’t get it against a better team, as they take on the two-win Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have been horrible against the run all year, and since week 12 have allowed the highest yards after contact per attempt, second-highest missed tackles per attempt, and the fourth-highest rushing touchdown rate. White should get fed this week, as this season he has ranked third in weighted opportunities, fourth in snap share, seventh in opportunity share, and seventh in red zone touches. Scored 19.6 in the earlier meeting this season with the Panthers, and 20+ should be expected this week.
James Conner - $13,380
Conner has been absolutely smashing it over the past month, averaging 23.7 points per game. This week, he gets a smash matchup with the Seahawks, whose run defence has been horrible over the past 5 or 6 weeks, where they have allowed the most rushing touchdowns and rushing yards per game, whilst also giving up the fifth-highest explosive run rate and the third-highest yards before contact. Meanwhile, Conner ranks seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt, eighth in yards after contact per attempt, and 12th in explosive run rate on the season.
Khalil Herbert - $11,350
Herbert comes with a caveat, as he is currently listed as questionable, however I do expect him to play. Herbert seems to have taken over as the lead back in the Bears offense, splitting snaps with Roschon Johnson, who appears to be more the 3rd down running back in this offense. The Bears and Herbert get a great matchup this week, as they take on a Packers run defence that has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, and 10th-highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt in the NFL. Scored 11.4 in the earlier matchup, but I expect more if the injury doesn’t affect him.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb - $18,900
Lamb has been an absolute stud all season, and there’s not much of a reason for it to stop in week 18, against a Commanders defence that ranks 31st in fantasy points per game conceded to wide receivers. The Commanders also utilize two-high safety looks at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Against two-high, Lamb has a 29.8% target share, a 39.7% air-yard share, 2.56 yards per route run, and a 37.4% first-read share. Lamb struggled in the earlier meeting, but I don’t see lightning striking twice here.
Mike Evans - $14,280
Evans has consistently torched the Panthers during his illustrious career at the Buccaneers, and that rang true in the earlier contest between these teams this season, as Evans went for 162 yards and a touchdown. Since week 12, the Panthers run single-high at the highest rate in the league. Against single-high, Evans has dominated, with a 26% target share, a 43.5% air-yard share, 3.16 yards per route run, and a 43.5% air-yard share. With so much on the line this week for the Bucs, expect Evans to be targeted heavily, and with a score here will be in the conversation for WR1 this week.
Darius Slayton - $8,960
Slayton has a tremendous ceiling for the price, however the biggest concern this week is the fact quarterback Tyrod Taylor is currently questionable to play. If he misses and Tommy DeVito starts, Slayton is no longer a feasible option. Over his past three games, Slayton has averaged 86 yards and 4 receptions per game, whilst crossing for two touchdowns. He gets a tremendous matchup against an Eagles defence that has been woeful against the pass this season, ranking dead last in fantasy points allowed per game to wide receivers. Great WR3/FLEX option.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet - $8,950
Kmet is currently listed as questionable, however it appears as though he will take his place in week 18 against the Packers. These teams met in week 1, where Kmet managed to haul in 5 receptions for 44 yards, on his way to a score of 9.4. I think he can do better this week, as he takes on a Packers defence that has been susceptible to conceding touchdowns to tight ends this season. The Packers have conceded 7 touchdowns to tight ends, the third most in the league. Kmet has proven to be Justin Fields’ safety net over the middle and should do well again this week.
Juwan Johnson - $7,810
We had Johnson last week, and what a game he had, hauling in 8 receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown. That’s now three straight games with a score for Johnson, who has seen his involvement skyrocket of late, averaging 7 targets per game over the last three. In that span of games, Johnson has garnered a 20.4% target share, a 26.8% air-yard share, 2.89 yards per route run, and a 21% first-read share. He gets a great match up this week with the Falcons, who have given up the fifth-most receiving yards, the seventh-most fantasy points, and the 12th-highest yards per reception to opposing tight ends.
D/ST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $6,770
The Bucs get a great matchup this week, as they take on a Panthers offense that has averaged the second-least number of points per game this season (14.75). The Bucs have the tenth-most sacks of any team in the NFL this season, whilst the Panthers have allowed the fourth-most sacks in the NFL. The Bucs should live in the backfield, with rookie quarterback Bryce Young being the second-most sacked player in the league. The Bucs should score on defence and special teams this week and are a solid play.
New England Patriots - $4,580
I’m very surprised the Patriots are this cheap, and they are by far my favourite D/ST unit this week. They take on a Jets offense that has been unable to get anything going all season, and in a game that is predicted to have inclement weather, the total for this matchup is the lowest all season (30.5). This Patriots D/ST unit has only scored under five on three occasions this season, and not at all since week 6! The Jets have conceded the third-most turnovers this season, and with this likely being the final game in charge of the Patriots for Bill Belichick, I expect the defensive and special teams’ units to be fully up for this one.
Suggested Draftstars Lineup
