The Bulldogs, Melbourne and Sydney are the only undefeated teams after four rounds of the season. Good luck to you if you predicted that! Melbourne star Christian Petracca is the big firmer in the Brownlow betting markets after a best-on-ground performance against Geelong in Round 4, and likely has polled votes in every round of the season so far, to see him perched towards the top of the Brownlow leaderboard. Brownlow contenders Travis Boak, Jack Steele and Tom Mitchell are also likely to be in the votes in Round 4 as they close the gap on our unlikely early leader in Adelaide gun forward Taylor Walker.
Read on for our 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 4.
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard tracker with links to round-by-round voting posted there.
2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Vote Predictions - Round 4
Sydney 11.17.83 def Essendon 12.8.80
The Swans are 4-0 to start 2021! Who would’ve predicted that? It was a game setup in the middle where Luke Parker was brilliant with 32 disposals, 7 marks, 6 clearances and a goal. Chad Warner (23 disposals, 6 marks, 6 clearances) and Callum Mills (25 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) were also effective. Zach Merrett (27 disposals, 9 tackles) tried hard for the Bombers while Nik Cox gave a glimpse of the Dons’ future with 18 disposals, 7 marks and a goal.
Luke Parker – 3
Chad Warner – 2
Zach Merrett - 1
Port Adelaide 11.13.79 def Richmond 11.11.77
A cracking game that had a finals-like atmosphere saw the Power cling on to a dramatic win deposite copping a number of injuries. It was a great team effort for the Power with Travis Boak (29 disposals, 7 clearances) and Ollie Wines (27 disposals, 5 clearances) strong four-quarter performers, while Zak Butters (19 disposals, 1 goal) and Xavier Duursma (21 disposals, 1 goal) were electric before both went off injured in the final quarter. Jayden Short (31 disposals, 1 goal) and Bachar Houli (26 disposals, 11 marks) were busy for the Tigers. Tricky game for votes.
Travis Boak – 3
Zak Butters – 1
Xavier Duursma – 1
Jayden Short – 1
Western Bulldogs 10.13.73 def Brisbane 8.6.54
The Dogs got the job done in windy conditions in Ballarat with Tim English (17 disposals, 9 marks, hitouts, 3 goals) and Aaron Naughton (18 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals) proving the conditions were no problem for big forwards. In the middle, it was Adam Treloar (29 disposals, 10 tackles, 5 clearances), Jack Macrae (32 disposals, 8 tackles, 7 clearances, 1 goal) and Josh Dunkley (27 disposals, 8 tackles, 6 clearances). Hugh McLuggage (25 disposals, 12 marks, 1 goal) was best for the Lions.
Adam Treloar – 2.5
Tim English – 2.5
Jack Macrae - 1
St.Kilda 15.12.102 def West Coast 13.4.82
After trailing by 33 points in the 3rd quarter, the Saints turned it on to emerge victorious by 20. Max King kicked a career-best 5 goals from 13 disposals, with Jack Steele (33 disposals, 6 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal), Brad Crouch (26 disposals, 12 tackles, 6 clearances), Brad Hill (26 disposals, 9 marks) and Jack Billings (26 disposals, 2 goals) all influential in the middle of the ground. Jack Petrucelle had his best game of the year for the Eagles with 4 goals from 13 disposals.
Jack Steele – 3
Max King – 2
Brad Hill – 0.5
Jack Billings – 0.5
Gold Coast 8.11.59 def by Carlton 9.16.70
The Blues escaped with the points in a hard-fought win over the Suns. Ed Curnow (32 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal) was best for the Blues with Sam Docherty (28 disposals, 8 marks) and Liam Jones (21 disposals, 11 marks) effective in defence. The Suns won plenty of ball with Jack Bowes (34 disposals, 9 marks), Touk Miller (28 disposals, 13 tackles), Noah Anderson (30 disposals, 10 clearances) and Hugh Greenwood (27 disposals, 10 tackles, 10 clearances, 1 goal) all having busy nights.
Ed Curnow – 3
Liam Jones – 1
Hugh Greenwood – 1
Touk Miller - 1
Collingwood 9.6.60 def by GWS Giants 14.6.90
The Pies’ army will be restless after a poor showing against the young Giants. Skipper Toby Greene led from the front with 5 goals from 18 disposals in a star performance. Tim Taranto (34 disposals, 8 marks, 6 tackles) and Callan Ward (37 disposals, 7 clearances) ran riot in the middle, while Lachie Ash (28 disposals, 11 marks) was excellent across half-back. The Pies had few winners with Steele Sidebottom (30 disposals, 8 marks) arguably their best.
Toby Greene – 3
Callan Ward – 1.5
Tim Taranto – 1.5
North Melbourne 10.8.68 def by Adelaide 16.13.109
The Kangaroos were right in the game for three quarters in their best effort for the year but the Crows got loose in the final quarter to run away with the win. Lachie Sholl was superb with 31 disposals, 8 marks and a goal, Rory Laird (31 disposals, 11 clearances) was influential despite a hard tag while Reilly O’Brien (24 disposals, 31 hitouts, 6 clearances) won the battle in the ruck. Aaron Hall was best for the Roos with 33 disposals and 6 marks.
Rory Laird – 2.5
Lachie Sholl – 2.5
Aaron Hall - 1
Melbourne 12.13.85 def Geelong 9.6.60
The Dees were enormous in slippery conditions at the G to roll the Cats and move to a perfect 4-0 record to start the 2021 season. It was the midfield brigade of Christian Petracca (36 disposals, 7 marks, 9 clearances, 2 goals), Clayton Oliver (34 disposals, 6 tackles, 5 clearances) and Jack Viney (24 disposals, 12 tackles, 8 clearances) who were brilliant with Max Gawn (23 disposals, 7 clearances, 41 hitout, 1 goal) the dominant big man. Joel Selwood (30 disposals, 7 tackles) tried hard for the Cats but they were simply outgunned.
Christian Petracca – 3
Clayton Oliver – 2
Jack Viney – 0.5
Max Gawn – 0.5
Fremantle 13.18.96 def Hawthorn 12.9.81
The Dockers got the points in a fiery clash with the Hawks. Nat Fyfe was back in the middle of the ground and was superb with 31 disposals and 6 clearances, and it could’ve been so much better if a few of his 6 behinds had sailed straight. David Mundy (25 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) and Adam Cerra (23 disposals, 6 tackles) were good while Sean Darcy pushed forward to kick 3 goals to go with 14 disposals and 18 hitouts. Tom Mitchell (38 disposals, 5 clearances, 1 goal) was prolific with Changkuoth Jiath (24 disposals, 12 marks) and Chad Wingard (26 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal) good contributors for the Hawks.
Nat Fyfe – 3
David Mundy – 2
Tom Mitchell - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
