NFL Daily Fantasy Tips 2023-24: Week 7

A smaller 10-game slate for Monday of Week 7, as there are six teams on the bye. With totals down across the board, fantasy was difficult last week. It doesn’t get any easier, with the highest total in the 6-game early window being 43. The 4-game late window could be where we find most of our squad, with each of the 4 totals posted higher than 43 this week. With plenty of criticism about the level of play so far this season, I’m waiting on the NFL to start officiating differently to encourage more points. Will that be this week? We shall see.

Draftstars has a $40,000 contest, with a $3,915 first prize. There are plenty of other contests for everyone to get involved. And if you’re really keen on a chance to win big, there’s a $10 contest with the winner gaining entry into the $150k NFL Star Final. Bring it on! Let’s kick things off.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen - $16,430

There are 3 elite quarterbacks in this slate, and I don’t think you can go wrong with either Allen, Mahomes, or Jackson. For the purpose of this article, I’ve taken Allen as I believe he has the highest floor, and highest ceiling of any of the 3. If you’re concerned with weather and the impact it could have on your QB1, Mahomes is the pick, as weather is expected to be fine at Arrowhead. Allen has a history of shredding this Patriots team, and that’s when they were good. This season, the Patriots have been horrible, and after two slow offensive games in a row from the Bills, I fully expect OC Ken Dorsey to draw up a great game plan here to get this offense back on track.

Geno Smith - $14,100

This is entirely about the matchup, as the Seahawks get a home matchup with the Arizona Cardinals in week 7. The Cardinals have been shredded the past few weeks, and stacking Seahawks in your squad isn’t the worst idea this week. Smith has been a little underwhelming in terms of fantasy points this season, ranking just 23^rd amongst QBs, however his advanced stats suggest he’s in for a nice week against a poor defence, with Smith ranking 2^nd in adjusted completion rate, 9^th in passing grade, and 12^th in yards per attempt. The one concern I have is DK Metcalf being banged up, and possibly missing this week. Smith still should shred this defence.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs - $14,090

Jacobs has been a volume beast this season, averaging 15 points per game despite only scoring 2 touchdowns. He figures to get the ball this week too, as Brian Hoyer is expected to start at QB, with Jimmy Garoppolo out. Backing up the point about volume, Jacobs ranks 1^st in weighted opportunity, 2^nd in opportunity share, 4^th in snap share, and 3^rdin redzone touches. Whilst the Bears defence has been solid against the run, they struggle against receiving backs, allowing the most receiving yards and touchdowns to opposing running backs. With Jacobs averaging close to 6 targets per game, expect a high floor for the Raiders’ RB.

Kenneth Walker III - $13,640

I love Walker in this spot, and if you can only afford the one mid-to-high tear running back, I suggest you take Walker. Walker gets an A1 matchup against the Cardinals, who showed last week they cannot stop the run. The Cards have the third-lowest stuff rate, 7^th highest yards after contact per attempt, and 9^th highest yards per carry allowed to zone runs, of which Walker and the Seahawks utilise at over 60%. Walker ranks 7^th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 10^th in yards after contact per attempt. Look for him to eat up the Cardinals in the second half.

Jerome Ford - $10,090

Ford is a solid RB2 option at just above bottom dollar, however, don’t expect him to put up RB1 numbers. His snap share has dipped since Kareem Hunt is getting more integrated into this offense; however, I still see Ford getting more snaps than Hunt throughout the game. Ford has been solid since taking over, ranking 6^th in yards after contact per attempt, 16^th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 21^st in explosive run rate. This Indy run defence is stout, however behind a strong O-Line Ford should put up solid RB2 numbers.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp - $17,210

Kupp hasn’t missed a beat since returning from injury in week 5, with 15 receptions, 266 yards and a touchdown over that two-week span. His stats are bordering on mind-blowing, commanding a 47.3% air-yard share, 41.7% first-read share, and 34.4% target share. His connection with Matthew Stafford is legit, and he should have another monster game this week against the Steelers, who have struggled against opposition receivers, and most notably slot receivers. 

Marquise Brown - $11,190

Brown had a bit of an off week last week; however, I expect him to bounce back this week in a matchup with the Seahawks. The Seahawks have allowed the third-most points to wide receivers in fantasy, whilst Brown has great usage numbers for the cards, commanding a 27% target share, 43.3% air-yard share, 32.5% first-read share, whilst also ranking 12^th amongst wide receivers in redzone targets. Borderline WR1 upside at a nice price, and I can see the Cardinals throwing the ball a lot, with the Seahawks predicted to win by over a touchdown.

Jakobi Meyers - $9,880

Meyers has been balling out this season and appears to have taken over as WR1 at the Raiders the past few weeks. Whilst I fully expect Adams to get his targets this week, there’s no denying how well Meyers is playing, and at under $10k, is a nice little pickup this week.  Meyers ranks 11^th in points per game for all wide receivers in fantasy, whilst getting a 25% target-share, and ranking 20^th in first-read share and 7^th in redzone targets. With two 20+ scores and another 15+ score, Meyers has tremendous upside as your WR3/FLEX option.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews - $10,820

Andrews was solid last week without being spectacular, however this week he gets a great matchup against a Lions defence that has struggled to stop opposing tight ends this season. Andrews is generally viewed as the TE2 in fantasy, with Kelce essentially another wide receiver when it comes to fantasy. Andrews ranks 2^nd in target share, 5^thin air yard share, and 6^th in both yards per route run and first-read share. He’s also top 10 in both deep targets and redzone targets amongst tight ends. The Lions rank 28^th in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends, and allow the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends.

Michael Mayer - $6,700

Mayer was taken early in the second round by the Raiders to replace Darren Waller, and until recently he has taken some time to get acclimated to the NFL. However, if last week is anything to go by, Mayer may finally be getting some love from offensive play caller Josh McDaniels. Over the past two weeks, Mayer has a 25% target per route run rate, and 3.16 yards per route run. He gets a good matchup here against the Bears, who allow the 7^th most receiving yards and 8^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

D/ST

Seattle Seahawks - $6,700

The Seahawks have the highest upside this week in my opinion, as they showed two weeks ago against the Giants, when they poured on 30 points for their fantasy owners at the D/ST position. The below average Rams D/ST unit managed 10 points last week against this Cardinals offense, and I fully expect the Seahawks to create far more points with their raucous home crowd making things hard for the Cardinals. The Seahawks have 19 sacks this season, ranking equal 6^th in the league, whilst managing 7 takeaways.

Kansas City Chiefs - $4,670

This Chiefs defence is finally starting to get the recognition it deserves, everywhere but in fantasy. The Chiefs are the 4^th cheapest option in this slate, and I really like them, despite taking on a Chargers offense that has the potential to go large. The Chiefs defence has been so consistent, with a low score of 4, and a high of 14, they probably don’t have the ceiling of a Seahawks D/ST unit, however for a nice saving and a safe 5–15-point performance, I like the Chiefs here. The Chiefs have the 12^th most sacks this season, whilst managing 9 turnovers. 

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