Moonee Valley Tips for Saturday December 31st

Saturday racing returns to Moonee Valley for an 8 race program before we venture to Flemington on New Years Day. Seven of the eight races are sprint races so it will be interesting to note any patterns that may arise early on in the day.

The track is a Soft 5 after the storm that hit Melbourne, but with fine weather we should see that upgraded to a Good 4 at some stage.

Moonee Valley Racing Tips - December 31st 2016

Race 1

The money has well and truly come for the supremely bred TULIP for the Hayes/Dabernig stable. Bred by Pierro out of a Rock Of Gibraltar mare (just a handy 12 Group 1's in the family), she won a trial at Tatura beating a horse that came out and won on debut. There was a gap of 6 lengths back to 3rd and while it looks as if 1400m-1600m will be her best distance, she should be good enough to win over 1000m here. Williams to ride is another hint. Biggest danger is the first starter for the Freedmans, Bookbuild.

Tip: Tulip

Race 2

Absolute lottery of a race here with any number of chances. BELLA AVA should really appreciate the rain that's fallen and if the track remains a Soft 5 she should be competitive. She won on Soft ground two starts ago before failing down the straight last start in what's been a strong form race. SIREN'S REWARD just got run down last start over 1000m here so with 55.5kg, barrier 3 and the Weir/Allen combo she will go very close, while TOORAK ROSE ran a blinder first up down the straight behind the talented Miss Wonderland and will be coming home hard from the back.

I'll be backing Bella Ava and Siren's Reward here with a little saver on Toorak Rose in what looks a very tough race.

Tip: Bella Ava / Siren's Reward

Race 3

LADY ESPRIT has to lump 59.5kg here but she has been contesting harder races than this. With barrier 3 and senior rider Zahra on board, she should go close if she repeats recent efforts behind Lyuba and Estaminet. APPALACHIAN ANNIE resumes from a spell after failing in two starts on Soft tracks in the winter. If the track firms up to a Good 4 she should run well. Has two wins from four starts when first up from a spell and has finished in the top two at four of her six starts over track and distance. 

Tip: Appalachian Annie EW

Race 4

HONEY CARA won over this track and distance last start by 6 lengths and there's no reason to suggest she can't win again here. She draws barrier 14 which is the only concern but Allen should take her to the front and if she gets there easy enough she'll be extremely hard to run down. Locking in the $3.25 fixed while it still lasts. The value in the race clearly looks to be PRIMA at $15, which I think is well over the odds. He won over this track and distance four starts ago and has since run three consecutive 3rds. His past two have been in quite good form races behind the likes of Gallic Chieftan, Goathland and Flying Light, so back to BM78 grade, with the 2kg claim and the good barrier, I think he'll run a super race at odds.

Tip: Honey Cara / Prima EW (Best Value)

Race 5

FUHRYK looks very progressive and has produced two very good performances to win both of her past two starts. First up she stormed home at Wodonga after being held up and then last start she bolted in at this track and distance to win by 2.75L going away. Up in grade but down in weight and draws ideally in barrier 3 so there's no reason she can't go in once again. Also worth mentioning she is DAvid Hayes' best of the weekend. The one I am most wary of is OUR LUCA who led all the way and trotted in at SAle on debut, where he ran quick time too. He will probably look for the lead again here from the wide gate, and if he manages to get across without spending too much fuel he could well win again. 

Tip: Fuhryk

Race 6

Another deep race with many hopes but I'll be backing both ARMADA and ROMAN FIZZ here. Armada ($6.50) resumed with a good run at Kilmore behind Airalign which then came out and won last weekend. Last start he worked home well again to finish 2nd behind the progressive Divine Mr Artie in higher grade than this, so with a good draw and the claim for Ben Allen, he can win at his third run back from a spell. ROMAN FIZZ continues to run well this prep and put in a solid performance last start down the straight at Flemington. He won over this track and distance under 59.5kg two starts ago and the horse he beat then came out and won his next start. From barrier 6 he maps to get a nice run and at $13 looks a decent bet.

Tip: Armada / Roman Fizz

Race 7

Pretty keen on ANATOLA here for Mick Price and Damien Oliver. Should have won first up when she was badly held up for most of the straight before charging home late to miss by half a length. The extra 200m should suit her and she should have improved fitness-wise, so with a similar weight in the same grade and Oliver retaining the ride, she looks hard to beat. Maps to get a sweet run from barrier 5 and looks one of the better bets on the card.

Tip: Anatola (Best Bet)

Race 8

Was very excited to see the Australian debut of former HK horse Divine Ten but it appears as though he won't be running. I'm fairly keen on BEAU RADA here third up from a spell. He ran a big race first up and then last start was held up for the majority of the straight before being beaten 2L at Flemington. He was desperately unlucky and his third up record is two wins from three starts so he should be set to peak here. Has a good record over this track and distance and I think he is flying this prep so if he gets even luck from barrier 1 then I expect him to go very close at a decent price. OLIVIER looks a danger for Darren Weir after a good first up run in Adelaide, while ROCK 'N' GOLD didn't have a lot of luck last start and can win here.

Tip: Beau Rada