NFL Week 7 kicks off on Thursday night with the New Orleans Saints hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Saints will be looking to snap the Jaguars’ 3-game winning streak, whilst also trying to keep up with the Buccaneers, who lead the NFC South. Meanwhile, the Jags will be sweating on the fitness of QB Trevor Lawrence, who suffered a knee injury in the Jags’ 37-20 week 6 victory over the Colts.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our Best Bet. Make sure you are following BeforeYouBet, as we will have dedicated Match Previews for all Prime-Time NFL games this season, as well as a preview of the main slate on Monday’s. All for free!
NFL Week 7 Preview & Betting Tips
Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints
Caesars Superdome, Friday 20th October, 11:15am (AEDT)
Last Week
The Saints were involved in yet another snore fest in week 6, going down on the road to the Texans, 20-13. The Saints were able to move the ball up and down the field until they reached the redzone, where they were unable to get anything done. They finished 0-3 in the redzone, 0-2 on fourth down, and lost the turnover battle 2-1, to go down to a rookie QB and understrength Texans team. Concerns must be reaching boiling point for this team on offense, and it doesn’t get any easier this week against the Jags.
Speaking of the Jags, they managed a comfortable, on the scoreboard at least, divisional win over the Colts last week, 37-20. The Colts made more total yards, more yards per play, more yards per passing play, and had more time of possession, however the Jags managed to create 4 turnovers, which ultimately won them the game. Their offense wasn’t great, and with Trevor Lawrence banged up, expect to see a whole lot of Travis Etienne this week against the Saints.
Injury Report
New Orleans Saints
Trai Turner (OG) – OUT
Eno Benjamin (RB) – OUT
Andrew Dowell (LB) – OUT
Ryan Ramczyk / Landon Young (OT) – OUT
James Hurst / Andrus Peat (OG) – Questionable
Cameron Jordan (DE) – Questionable
Tyrann Mathieu (SAF) – Questionable
Demario Davis (OLB) – Questionable
Juwan Johnson (TE) – Questionable
J.T Gray / Lonnie Johnson (DB) – Questionable
Chris Olave (WR) – Questionable
Jacksonville Jaguars
Parker Washington / Jaylon Moore (WR) – OUT
Ventrell Miller (LB) – OUT
Christian Braswell (CB) – OUT
Tyson Campbell (CB) – Questionable
Brandon Scherff (OG) – Questionable
Trevor Lawrence (QB) – Questionable
Zay Jones (WR) – Questionable
Walker Little (OT) – Questionable
Match Preview
These two teams will meet for just the 8th time, with the Saints leading the head-to-head 5-2. In the last matchup in 2019, the Saints won on the road, 13-6. The Jags haven’t beaten the Saints since 2003. I’ll take absolutely nothing from these results, given both teams have different coaches, and quarterbacks since that game in 2019.
The Saints were 1-point favourites on the lookahead, before the number flipped at re-open, and the Jags were slight 1-point favourites. Early money quickly came in on the Saints with the uncertainty surrounding Lawrence, with the Saints getting as high as 3-point favourites. After Lawrence was limited at practice and chatted to the media, the +3 on the Jags didn’t last long, as optimism in Lawrence playing increased, and the spread went back down to Saints -1. Whatever happens with Lawrence, I don’t see the number staying here, with the Jags likely to close slight favourites if Lawrence is in, and the Saints likely to be north of 3-point favourites if Lawrence is ruled out.
With uncertainty surrounding the quarterback situation, the total is where I will look for this matchup. The Saints have been absolute under machine’s this season, with 0 overs and 6 unders from their six matchups. The Jags have been more up and down, going 3-3 with their totals. Another point to make is that certain injuries for both teams help the cause for an under. The Saints will be without Ryan Ramczyk, James Hurst, Trai Turner, and Landon Young along the offensive line, severely hurting their ability to keep Derek Carr protected. Meanwhile, the Jags will either be without their QB Trevor Lawrence, or he will surely be limited in his ability to move around in the pocket. With all these things considered, I love the under here, and with no certainty surrounding Lawrence at the time of writing, I can’t advocate for a play on the side.
One last consideration on the total, this could go up a little if Lawrence is confirmed in. If the total somehow goes to 41.5, even if Lawrence is in, I’ll be going in with some more on the under.
Under 40 total points
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
