After 56 regular season games, the BBL12 Finals are here beginning with The Eliminator between the Thunder and the Heat! Both teams snuck into the finals after dramatic ends to the regular season, who will advance to The Knockout?
Jack Tobin has you covered for the first game of the finals series with his preview and make sure to out our BBL Tips page, for previews on every game of the BBL12 finals. If you're going to have a Dabble, why not bet with Dabble?
BBL12 Thunder vs Heat Preview & Betting Tips
Sydney Showground Stadium, Friday 27th January, 7:15pm (AEDT)
Sydney Thunder
Predicted XI: David Warner, Matthew Gilkes, Jason Sangha, Oliver Davies, Alex Ross, Daniel Sams, Ben Cutting, Nathan McAndrew, Chris Green, Gurinder Sandhu, Usman Qadir
It was a nervy finish, but the Thunder scraped past the Stars by three wickets to book their position in the finals. The Thunder will have David Warner in their side for The Eliminator and The Knockout if they advance, before the opener leaves for Test duties. The Thunder welcomed back Jason Sangha in their last game, in what has been a timely return to help the Thunder’s batting depth.
The Thunder made hard work chasing 120 against the Stars on Wednesday night, falling to 5/60. The Thunder were staring down the barrel of missing the finals, until Daniel Sams took the game away from the Stars during the power surge, with his 28 off 18 getting the Thunder across the line.
The Thunder went 2-0 against the Heat this season, with their two wins coming in two different methods. The first encounter was a dominant 10 wicket win inside of 12 overs on the 27th of December, while the second meeting on the 29th of December was an eleven run win in a tight encounter. Having won in two different ways will give the Thunder plenty of confidence coming into this must win clash.
Brisbane Heat
Predicted XI: Josh Brown, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Matthew Renshaw, Sam Hain, Jimmy Peirson, Michael Neser, James Bazley, Spencer Johnson, Mitch Swepson, Matt Kuhnemann
Much like the Thunder, the Heat’s Test representatives Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne and Matt Renshaw will be available for The Eliminator and The Knockout. However Mitch Swepson won’t be available for The Knockout if the Heat advance, as he’s required on a spin camp in Sydney in preparation for the tour of India.
The Heat threw away the opportunity to finish third and host The Knockout, after a remarkable collapse saw them lose an unloseable game against the Hurricanes on the final day of the regular season. With 23 balls remaining the Heat required only 18 runs to win with six wickets in hand, however the Heat proceeded to lose 4/15, to fall two runs short.
The Heat had won three consecutive games leading into Wednesday’s match and were charging into the finals series with some serious momentum. It will be interesting to see what the embarrassing loss will do for the Heat’s mindset now having to play away from home. Four of the Heat’s seven wins this season came at the Gabba, as they’ve struggled to put together winning scores on more difficult batting surfaces.
Match Prediction
This matchup provides a stark contrast between conditions and talent. On paper the Heat’s batting unit is vastly better than the Thunder, however they haven’t produced away from the Gabba. In their five games at the Gabba the Heat averaged 179, while in eight games away from the Gabba they averaged a total score of 147. The Showground Stadium has been the most difficult surface to bat on this season, as the Heat found out when they were skittled for 121 earlier this season.
This is going to be a low scoring encounter, and that favours the Thunder who have restricted opposing sides to under 145 twice in two of their last three games. The Thunder have enjoyed this matchup, winning four consecutive games against the Heat. In bowler friendly conditions, the Heat’s batsmen are going to struggle against a Thunder outfit that has consistently found ways to beat them regardless of the conditions.
Sydney Thunder
$1.85 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Matthew Gilkes is beginning to regain form after a quiet patch through the middle of the season, with knocks of 74* and 21 in two of his last three games. In his two games against the Heat this season, Gilkes produced scores of 56* and 37 and will be full of confidence coming into this fixture.
Michael Nesser has had a stunning season, with 22 wickets ranking him third in the BBL12 leading wicket takers. Nesser has taken 2+ wickets in six of twelve games this season, and Neser has saved his best form for the most important time of the year. Nesser has returns of 4/35, 0/54 3/27 and 4/25 in his last four games.
To finish off the multi, we’re taking the ever reliable first method of dismissal in the first innings to be caught, which has occurred in the last six games of BBL12.
Matthew Gilkes 10+ Runs
Michael Neser 2+ Wickets
Method Of First Dismissal 1st Innings - Caught
