Round 10 of the AFL season will be an interesting one for Brownlow votes. There were quite a few games where the losing team had the better players on the ground, so will the umpires see it the same as us or will they fall into the old trap of giving the three votes to the winning team? Three of our contenders are all likely to be in the Brownlow votes again in Round 10 with Hugh McLuggage, Clayton Oliver and Marcus Bontempelli all having big games. It's shaping up to be a sensational Brownlow Medal count! Keep taking some of these contenders at value prices, and you'll be in good shape to have a green book come Brownlow Medal night!
Check out our analysis and 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 10 below!
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard tracker with links to round-by-round voting posted there.
2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Vote Predictions - Round 10
Brisbane 15.12.102 def Richmond 11.8.74
Brisbane continued their hot form with a strong win over the reigning premiers. It might be a tricky one for votes with the Lions on-ball brigade of Dayne Zorko (28 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal), Hugh McLuggage (27 disposals, 7 clearances) and Jarryd Lyons (26 disposals, 6 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal) all candidates for the three votes. Bachar Houli (27 disposals) was best for the Tigers but hard to see the votes going anywhere but the brilliant Lions trio. We hope a few followers took some of the $81 for Hugh McLuggage that we mentioned a few weeks ago!
Dayne Zorko - 2.5
Hugh McLuggage - 2.5
Jarryd Lyons - 1
Carlton 13.8.86 def Hawthorn 9.9.63
The Blues will be relieved to walk away with the win against the Hawks on Saturday afternoon. Sam Walsh was unbelievable in the first half, and although he faded out of the game, he still ended with 30 disposals, 6 tackles and a goal. Was the first half alone enough to take the three votes? Sam Docherty (26 disposals, 6 marks, 5 tackles), Patrick Cripps (25 disposals, 10 tackles), Adam Saad (26 disposals, 8 marks) and Zac Williams (26 disposals, 1 goal) all had good games. However the best four-quarter performer was arguably Tom Mitchell who racked up 44 disposals and 8 clearances for the Hawks.
Tom Mitchell - 2.5
Sam Walsh - 2.5
Sam Docherty - 1
Geelong 14.7.91 def Gold Coast 8.9.57
It was a little scrappy but the Cats got the job done against the Suns. With injuries to Mitch Duncan and Cam Guthrie, it was Joel Selwood who stepped up in the middle with 39 disposals, 7 tackles and 10 clearances in an enormous effort. Quinton Narkle (34 disposals, 8 marks, 5 clearances) had his best ever game for the Cats, with Lachie Henderson (24 disposals, 11 marks), Mark Blicavs (18 disposals, 34 hitouts, 7 marks, 6 clearances, 1 goal) and Shuan Higgins (25 disposals, 8 tackles, 1 goal) also enjoying their day. Touk Miller tried hard for the Suns to return 30 disposals, 5 tackles, 7 clearances and 1 goal.
Joel Selwood - 3
Quinton Narkle - 2
Mark Blicavs - 1
Adelaide 15.6.96 def Melbourne 14.11.95
Well, Adelaide ended the undefeated run of the Dees in a dramatic finish, but a horror umpiring call in the dying seconds cost the Demons a chance at sharing the points at a minimum. Paul Seedsman (35 disposals, 8 marks, 5 clearances, 1 goal), Ben Keays (34 disposals, 7 tackles, 2 goals) and Rory Laird (35 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances) were all huge for the Crows. However Clayton Oliver put in one of the most complete games you will ever see and should get the three votes for his 38 disposals, 9 tackles, 13 clearances and 3 goals. We hope you jumped on at the $17 we suggested last week! Brownlow fancy Christian Petracca was also good with 32 disposals, 11 clearances and a goal but might not be able to squeeze into the votes here.
Clayton Oliver - 3
Ben Keays - 2
Paul Seedsman - 1
Western Bulldogs 21.18.144 def St.Kilda 5.3.33
A humbling evening for the Saints as the Dogs ran rampant and jumped back to the top of the 2021 AFL ladder. Toss a coin to split the three votes in this one with Jack Macrae (41 disposals, 9 tackles, 9 clearances) and Marcus Bontempelli (26 disposals, 6 tackles, 4 goals) both enormous. Tom Liberatore (31 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal), Bailey Dale (34 disposals, 2 goals) and Aaron Naughton (15 disposals, 9 marks, 5 goals) will fight it out for the final vote.
Jack Macrae - 2.5
Marcus Bontempelli - 2.5
Aaron Naughton - 0.5
Bailey Dale - 0.5
Fremantle 12.14.86 def Sydney 13.6.84
The Dockers kicked less goals but had enough scoring shots to snatch the win over the Swans. The big forwards were outstanding for both sides with Lance Franklin (6 goals, 18 disposals, 10 marks) back to his best and Rory Lobb (4 goals, 18 disposals, 9 marks, 7 hitouts) providing a target after Matt Taberner was injured. Nat Fyfe (27 disposals, 5 tackles, 13 clearances, 1 goal) and David Mundy (29 disposals, 7 clearances) helped to will the Dockers over the line.
Lance Franklin - 3
Rory Lobb - 2
Nat Fyfe - 1
GWS Giants 13.15.93 def West Coast 11.11.77
The Giants dominated the possession count and got the job done over the Eagles who add another away loss to their record. Stand-in skipper Josh Kelly (25 disposals, 8 tackles, 7 clearances) was one of their best, along with Tom Green (27 disposals, 6 clearances, 2 goals), Tim Taranto (25 disposals, 8 tackles) and Callan Ward (29 disposals, 6 tackles, 6 clearances). Andrew Gaff (28 disposals) and Tim Kelly (22 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal) were among the best for the Eagles.
Josh Kelly - 3
Tom Green - 2
Tim Taranto - 1
Collingwood 8.10.58 def by Port Adelaide 8.11.59
The Power were the second-best side all afternoon but they somehow escaped with a one-point win over the Pies. Ollie Wines (27 disposals, 1 goal), Travis Boak (27 disposals, 8 clearances), Sam Powell-Pepper (18 disposals, 8 tackles, 1 goal) and Robbie Gray (18 disposals, 3 goals) kept it together for the Power but arguably the best players on the ground were with the Pies. Brodie Grundy (23 disposals, 33 hitouts, 9 clearances, 2 goals) was back to his best, while Darcy Moore (25 disposals, 15 marks), Taylor Adams (29 disposals, 8 clearances), Steele Sidebottom (27 disposals, 9 marks) and Caleb Poulter (22 disposals, 12 marks, 1 goal) were all very good. Interesting game for votes.
Brodie Grundy - 3
Taylor Adams - 1
Robbie Gray - 1
Ollie Wines - 1
Essendon 22.9.141 def North Melbourne 10.9.69
The Bombers landed a big win to close out the round with the Roos sent crashing back to Earth. Darcy Parish continued his All-Australian form with 36 disposals, 12 marks and 11 clearances. He’s now into our top 5 on our counts with odds available of $36 at Betfair for him to win the Brownlow. Zach Merrett (31 disposals, 6 marks) and Andrew McGrath (31 disposals, 5 clearances) were also excellent. Ben Cunnington (34 disposals, 9 clearances, 1 goal) tried hard for the Roos in the losing effort.
Darcy Parish - 3
Zach Merrett - 2
Andrew McGrath - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
