The 90th Academy Awards show will be held this Monday from 12pm AEDT. It is one of the most wide open betting years in the movies in recent history, and we break down some of the key categories and give our tips below.
2018 Oscars Preview & Betting Tips
Best Actor
It was a fairly quiet year for actors in Hollywood, with no real standout performance taking the cake and garnering critical success and fame like we have seen from the likes of Leo DiCaprio and Eddie Redmayne in recent time.
Best Actor Nominees:
- Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
- Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
- Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
- Gary Oldman (The Darkest Hour)
- Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel Esq.)
In the best actor category, Gary Oldman leads the betting market for his portrayal of Winston Churchill in the biographical pic ‘Darkest Hour’, which is also nominated for best picture. There were some cringe worthy moments in Darkest Hour, but all the meme related content surrounding the cheek implants used to replicate the heft Churchill stature doesn’t take away from the fact that this was possibly Oldman’s greatest performance of his glittering career.
An upset doesn’t seem likely in this category, but if it does happen it could come from three-time Best Actor winner Daniel Day-Lewis. While not his best, his role in ‘Phantom Thread’ was critically acclaimed, though it will likely suffer due to a lack of buzz around the movie during it’s release.
Another dark horse comes in the shape of Daniel Kaluuya, who was fantastic in the smash hit ‘Get Out’, however, we feel that this was more due to some fantastic writing and didn’t really pack the acting punch that comes with a memorable Winston Churchill speech. Oldman is un-backable at $1.04, so we like the value pick in Kaluuya for a small bet.
Daniel Kaluuya win Best Actor
$17
Best Supporting Actor Nominees:
- Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
- Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
- Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
- Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
- Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
This category seems to be a lock. Sam Rockwell leads the way at small odds of just $1.10 for his role in the Best Picture nominated ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri). While cult figure Woody Harrelson’s smaller role in the movie might have been the more memorable one for some, it’s Rockwell’s portrayal of Jason Dixon that showed more acting range.
Can’t see an upset coming in this category, though if it does it will likely come from stalwart Willem Defoe, who was great in ‘The Florida Project’, but has been falling out of favour since the release and critical domination of Three Billboards. Again, Rockwell will likely win here, but there’s no value. Back an upset for a small bet.
Willem Defoe Best Supporting Actor
$6
Best Actress
The reason why it hasn’t been a big year for actors in movies is because women have completely dominated the scene. Women had leading roles in four of the movies nominated for Best Picture and there were a host of other great performances by women in 2017.
Best Actress Nominees:
- Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
- Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
- Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
- Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
- Meryl Streep (The Post)
Any other year, the outstanding lead performances by Margot Robbie and Meryl Streep in ‘I, Tonya’ and ‘The Post’ respectively would have been massive chances to win this award, however, in a such a great year for actresses, they are afterthoughts in this category.
Sally Hawkins, who plays the mute Elisa Esposito in ‘The Shape of Water’ was heralded for her ability to extract an extremely emotional and moving performances without speaking throughout the movie, and with her film being nominated for Best Picture, she’s definitely in with a shot here.
However, it’s hard to look past the ground-breaking performance of Frances McDormand in Three Billboards. In the past, McDormand unfortunately has been pigeonholed into playing an angry, violent and abusive woman in movies. However, that is exactly what Three Billboards called for in her performance, and she shone in the role, carrying the movie to a Best Picture nomination. If she loses here it will be a travesty of the highest degree. At a measly $1.05, there is no value here, but we can’t see it going any other way.
Other Oscars Tips
Allison Janney (I, Tonya) to win Best Acress in Supporting Role - $1.12 at Sportsbet
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) to win Best Director - $8 at Sportsbet
Get Out to win Best Original Screenplay – $1.85 at Sportsbet
Best Picture
- Call Me by Your Name
- Darkest Hour
- Get Out
- Dunkirk
- Lady Bird
- Phantom Thread
- The Post
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- The Shape of Water
And now for the big one, Best Picture. This year’s race seems more wide open than ever, and while two movies in Three Billboards and the Shape of Water lead the betting markets respectively, most critics seem to think outsiders Dunkirk and Get Out pose a bigger threat.
With the nomination pool expanded to nine movies this year, it seems that the winning film will need fewer votes than ever from the panel Academy members to win the Oscar. Because of that, we are giving our nod to the cult hit ‘Get Out’. Written by comedy writer Jordan Peele, Get Out was a comedy/horror phenomenon that also addressed a bunch of serious political questions within the black community.
While ‘Three Billboards’ and the ‘Shape of Water’ were marvellous films in their own right, we think Get Out will be the one that people are still talking about in ten years time, and those are the type of movies that win Oscars on a regular basis.
Get Out to win Best Picture
$10
