The circus returns to Qatar, after a one-year absence in 2022, as Max Verstappen looks to wrap up his third world title on the bounce. With Lewis Hamilton the only previous winner here, could we see the Red Bull struggle this time out, or will the cream rise to the top, and we witness another Verstappen masterclass? With only 6 races remaining on the calendar, the drivers and teams will be looking to finish the season on a high.
The Ferraris weren’t quite as quick as we’d hoped at the Japanese Grand Prix, as our bets went 2-3 (-0.03u), essentially even for the race. Let’s see if we can get some profit this weekend.
2023 Formula One Betting Tips - Qatar Grand Prix
Japanese Grand Prix Review
Verstappen was in a class of his own at the Japanese Grand Prix, leading every session, producing fastest lap, and winning the race by almost 20 seconds. Behind Verstappen, it was a tremendous weekend for McLaren, as Norris took 2nd, with Aussie teammate Oscar Piastri claiming his first career Formula 1 podium, coming home in 3rd.
It was an horrific weekend for Sergio Perez, as he was involved in several collisions before he eventually retired the car. After this result, it put teammate Verstappen in a tremendous position to seal the title this weekend in Qatar. As this race is a Sprint Race weekend, there are more points on offer for Perez, however even if Perez wins the Sprint Race, Verstappen will only need to finish 8th or higher in the Grand Prix to claim his third World Title. So, in all likelihood, the Championship will be sealed this weekend.
Grand Prix Preview
The track at the Lusail International Circuit is extremely fast, with medium to high-speed corners littered throughout the layout. With not a huge number of past results to go off, I will base my handicap of this race off the results and speed of each car at the British Grand Prix, where a similar type of setup would have been used.
Verstappen won the race at Silverstone, and whilst I believe he will more than likely win again this weekend, I can see the McLaren pair of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri being competitive. Likewise, just two years ago the Mercedes was exceptionally quick here, so I expect Hamilton and Russell to be fighting for podiums.
Further down, I expect the Ferrari to be close behind or even battling the Mercedes pair, with the nighttime race being an advantage for the Ferrari pair, who are harsher on their tyres. I expect the Alpha Tauri of Tsunoda and the two Alpine’s to be the final cars battling it out for points finishes this weekend, barring any craziness throughout the race.
Looking for some value, we will make a couple of plays on some podium, top 6, and points finishes, with little to no value in the race winner market yet again. I like Hamilton in particular out of the Mercedes pair, and I also believe it will be difficult for Piastri to match his teammate here this weekend. Gasly to make the top 10 in a place where he qualified 2nd in an Alpha Tauri two years ago. I’ll also take a couple of big priced flyers on Pole Position, as I believe the McLaren has a better chance at matching or beating Verstappen over one lap.
Other Bets
Lewis Hamilton (Top 3) – $3.80 @ Palmerbet (1u)
Pierre Gasly (Top 10) – $1.85 @ TAB (1u)
Lando Norris (Fastest Qualifier) – $10.00 @ Unibet (0.5u)
Oscar Piastri (Fastest Qualifier) - $13 @ Bet365 (0.5u)
Lando Norris (Top 3)
$1.85 (2 Units)
