The NFL Playoffs kick off this weekend, with six massive games over three days to whet our appetite for the massive month of playoff football ahead of us. With the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions earning the first-round bye, the 12 other teams do battle for their place in the Divisional Round next week. What a weekend this should be!
Below, we will dissect the matchups, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our Best Bet, and Prop Bets for each and every game this weekend. Make sure you are following Before You Bet, as we will have dedicated Match Previews for every playoff game, right up to and including Super Bowl LIX on Monday 10th of February.
NFL 2024-25: Super Wild Card Weekend
Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers
NRG Stadium, Sunday 12th January, 8:30am (AEDT)
The AFC South Champion Houston Texans (10-7) last met the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) in week 4 of the 2022 NFL Regular Season. The Chargers won the game comfortably, cruising home 34-24 at NRG Stadium. Nothing can be taken from this result, given the mass changes at the Texans, and new coaching staff at the Chargers.
In the hypothetical markets sent out last week at some sports books, the Chargers were listed as juiced 1.5-point favourites, with a total of 44.5. After the results were finalised last week, the Chargers re-opened as 3-point favourites, with the total still lined at 44.5. There’s been some back-and-forth between 2.5 and 3 in the market throughout the week, with the Texans currently listed as a heavily juiced 3-point underdog. The total market is where the money has flowed, with the 44.5 quickly dropping to 42, where we currently still sit.
My spread is far closer to the line sent out last week, however I’m not convinced at all by the Texans’ form. I will take the QB/HC combo of Justin Herbert and John Harbaugh and look for a -2.5 to take. My fair total is 42.5, so took the early bet on under 44.5. given it is no longer available, there’s no value in the under at this price.
For a prop bet, I don’t trust Quentin Johnson in a big spot, and I bet Herbert won’t either. He will target Ladd McConkey heavily, and he should go over his receiving yard total.
Prop Bet
Ladd McConkey (over) 70.5 receiving yards - $1.90 at Unibet (1.5u)
Chargers -3
$2.00 (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
M&T Bank Stadium, Sunday 12th January, 12:00pm (AEDT)
The Ravens (12-5) and Steelers (10-7) met twice this season, with both teams winning their home games. In week 11, the Ravens closed as 3-point road favourites, with the total closing 48. The Steelers managed to sneak home 18-16, despite failing to score a touchdown, after creating 3 turnovers. Five week later the Ravens hosted the Steelers, closing 7-point home favourites, with the total closing 44. The Steelers were there abouts in the first half, but the Ravens always seemed to have things under control, eventually winning and covering, 34-17.
The Ravens were slated as 7.5-point favourites last week on the hypothetical look ahead lines, with a total set at 47.5. After their fourth straight loss last week, the market downgraded the Steelers, opening the Ravens as 8.5-point favourites, with a total of 46.5. I saw immediate value in the Ravens, and played them at -8.5, in a move that was agreed on by the market as the Ravens have since pushed out to 10-point home favourites. Like the first game, unders money has come in heavily, with the total bet all the way down to 44. I lean towards the over, but prefer the Ravens team total in this one, and will take them to hit 30.
Looking at props for the second game, and I like Mark Andrews to get on the score board here. Andrews has touchdowns in each of his last 6 games and has had a great second half of the season. The big tight end continues to be Lamar’s favourite red zone target and should score again in wild card weekend.
Prop Bet
Mark Andrews (Anytime Touchdown) - $2.70 at Dabble (1u)
Ravens (team total) over 26.5 points
$1.84 (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos
Highmark Stadium, Monday 13th January, 5:00am (AEDT)
The #2 seed and AFC East Champion Buffalo Bills (13-4) will host the Denver Broncos (10-7), who with rookie quarterback Bo Nix have made their first playoffs since they won Super Bowl L in 2016. It’s been such an impressive season for the Broncos, but I feel their dream season is about to come to an end.
These teams last met in week 10 of the 2023 NFL season, with Russell Wilson and the Broncos scrambling past the Bills on the road, 24-22. It was a massive upset on Monday Night Football, after the Bills closed 7.5-point favourites. It was a crazy game, where the Bills turned the ball over four times, with Josh Allen accounting for three of those turnovers. I’ll take a little from this game, but with a new QB for the Broncos, and this game being a playoff game, it won’t be much.
The Bills opened 7.5-point home favourites on the hypothetical look ahead, with a total of 47.5. The numbers didn’t change on the actual open, however money came in on the Bills quickly, as the spread pushed up towards 10. Some resistance came into the market, and the Bills now sit as 9-point home favourites, with the total at 47. My fair line is Bills -9, so there is no real value in the spread. My fair total sits at 45, so I would lean towards an under, with the total sitting at 47. With some weather about, the total is where I will look to play this game.
I expect James Cook to have a big game this week, with the Bills leaning into their running game. Cook’s rushing yard total is 10-15 yards lower than it has been over the past month. With the Bills likely to lead from the front, Cook should get plenty of volume and enough to go over this total.
Prop Bet
Dalvin Cook (over) 55.5 rushing yards $1.90 (1 Unit)
Under 47 points
$1.92 (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers
Lincoln Financial Field, Monday 13th January, 8:30am (AEDT)
The Eagles and Packers met back in the second game of this NFL season, as the teams travelled to Sao Paulo, for the very first NFL regular season game in Brazil. The Eagles closed short 1.5-point favourites at the neutral site, winning the game 34-29 despite making less yards, and losing the turnover battle 3-1. The total closed 49.5 and was never really in doubt to go over.
Fast forward to Wild Card Weekend, and the Eagles were listed as heavily juiced 2.5-point favourites, with a total set at 47.5. At the actual open, the Eagles opened on the other side of 3 (-3.5), with the total pushed down slightly to 46.5. There’s been news during the week of both teams’ quarterbacks being in doubt, but I’ve got no doubt that both will play in this game. The one bit of injury news that was confirmed however, is the loss of Christian Watson for the Packers for the season. This pushed the number to Eagles -4.5, where it has bounced back and forth between here and 4 since this news. I make a fair spread Eagles -4, and with the loss of Watson the 4.5 makes sense. I don’t have a tonne of confidence, but the play is with the underdogs here.
A quick look at the total, and it has been bet down during the week, where we now sit at 45.5. My fair total is 44.5, so I have a very slight lean to the under here, but not enough to bet with two very good offenses.
Props wise, I will look to Saquon Barkley to bust out another 100-yard game. I’d expect the Eagles to lean on Barkley, and if they can get out to an early lead Barkley should easily get the carries required for 100 yards here.
Prop Bet
Saquon Barkley (over) 101.5 rushing yards - $1.90 at Bet365 (1.5u)
Packers +4.5
$1.93 (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders
Raymond James Stadium, Monday 13th January, 12:00pm (AEDT)
In one of the more interesting wrinkles with the playoff schedule this week, these two teams also met in week 1 of the 2024 NFL Regular Season, with the Bucs easily taking care of business 37-20 at home in week 1 as 4-point home favourites. Baker Mayfield torched the Commanders defence, going 24-30 for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns. The total closed 42.5.
The Bucs were slated as 2.5-point favourites, with a total of 49.5 on the hypothetical look ahead markets. The market opened this week with the Bucs and total bumped up a half point each, which is exactly where we currently stand. I make the Bucs shorter than 3, and although this will be Jayden Daniels’ first playoff start, I believe he can cover this. I’d love the hook, as Bucs by 3 seems by far the most likely result in this one, but with no hook we will just have to make do with the +3.
Total wise, I am just short of the 50 that’s on the board but am likewise in between the key totals of 47 and 51. As a result, the total is off limits for now.
I love Jayden Daniels to go over his rushing yard total here, with it currently set around 45.5. This is lower than his last couple of games, and he already showed he can run on this Bucs defence, after he rushed for 88 yards on debut for the Commanders. Since getting back to full strength after his rib injury, Daniels has averaged 76.4 yards rushing per game in the games he has finished.
Prop Bet
Jayden Daniels (over) 45.5 rushing yards - $1.90 at Bet365 (2u)
Commanders +3
$1.91 (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams vs Minnesota Vikings
SoFi Stadium, Tuesday 14th January, 12:00pm (AEDT)
The final game of Super Wild Card weekend comes to us on Tuesday at midday, as the NFC West Champion Los Angeles Rams host the 14-win Minnesota Vikings. And the term “host” is used loosely here, as there is a chance this game is moved to Arizona, given the wildfires that are blazing across the Los Angeles area at the time of writing. If this gets moved, I’d expect the Vikings fans to travel better than the LA fans, and the Rams’ small home field advantage will be quashed.
This is another replay of a game played earlier in the season, with these teams meeting back in week 8 at SoFi Stadium in LA. In a massive Thursday Night Football game, the Vikings closed 2.5-point favourites on the road, with the total closing 47. The game kicked off with a bang, with touchdowns on the first four drives of the game. The Rams took the lead for the first time deep in the third quarter, and never gave it up, with a safety of Sam Darnold confirming the result, 30-20.
Fast forward to Wild Card Weekend, and the Vikings were 2.5-point favourites, with a total of 47.5 on the hypothetical lookahead line. The Vikings opened up 2-point favourites at open, with the total bumped down half a point to 47. It’s been Rams money all week, pushing this closer to a pick em’, as the Vikings currently sit as 1-point favourites. The total has been bumped up slightly to 48, above the key of 47.
Looking for value, and I don’t see much in the spread. I liked the Rams on the money line earlier in the week around $2.15, but now I’m not as convinced. This could go either way, and the market agrees. It’s the total where I will look to get on board, as I see good value on the under now at 48. I don’t trust Sam Darnold in this spot, and the Rams defence has been improving over the last couple of months this season.
Bet square, don’t care when it comes to props in this game. I love both Jefferson and Nacua to go over their receiving yards totals in this game, but I’ll go with Nacua as I have more faith in Stafford getting him the ball.
Prop Bet
Puka Nacua (90+) receiving yards - $1.92 at Dabble (1.5u)
Under 48 total points
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
