It’s the Super Bowl LVII rematch! What a game we have in store for Monday Night Football, as the AFC leading Kansas City Chiefs (7-2), take on the current NFC leading Philadelphia Eagles (8-1). After a memorable clash in the big dance in February, which resulted in the Chiefs winning 38-35, these two teams will be desperate to win here for the mental edge should they meet again in the Super Bowl.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our Best Bet. Make sure you are following BeforeYouBet, as we will have dedicated Match Previews for all Prime-Time games this season, as well as a preview of the main slate on Monday’s. All for free!
NFL Week 11 Preview & Betting Tips
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium, Tuesday 21st November, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Chiefs are off the bye this week, with their last matchup coming in week 9, with their win over the Dolphins in Germany. The Chiefs shot out of the gate, leading 21-0 at halftime, before the Dolphins were able to get back into the game with a pair of third quarter touchdowns. The Chiefs prevailed, in a game where most people were expecting both offenses to fire. In reality, both teams struggled offensively, with the Chiefs gaining 267 total yards, and the Dolphins 292 total yards. The Chiefs defence remains their best unit, and if their offense can get back to where they have been the past 5 years, they may be unbeatable.
As for the Eagles, they are also off the bye, with their week 9 victory over the Cowboys their last competitive matchup. The Eagles were a little lucky to come away with the win in my opinion, with the Cowboys outgaining the Eagles by over 100 yards. The Eagles’ defence continues to be a shadow of last season’s unit, and they need to see some improvement if they are going to get back to the big dance this season. Despite this, they are still 8-1 and co-favourites to win the NFC with the 49ers.
Injury Report
Kansas City Chiefs
Nick Bolton (LB) – OUT
Jody Fortson (TE) – OUT
Nazeeh Johnson (SAF) – OUT
Richie James (WR) – Questionable
Philadelphia Eagles
Nakobe Dean / Shaun Bradley (LB) – OUT
Roderick Johnson (OT) – OUT
Avonte Maddox (CB) – OUT
Dallas Goedert (TE) – OUT
Justin Evans (SS) – OUT
Match Preview
These teams famously met in Super Bowl LVII just 9 months ago, with the Chiefs winning in come-from-behind fashion, 38-35. The Eagles looked the better team early, leading 14-7 in the second quarter, before a crucial Jalen Hurts fumble led to a 36-yard fumble recovery touchdown to Nick Bolton. The Eagles weren’t flustered, with Jalen Hurts leading two further scoring drives before halftime, to have the Eagles leading 24-14 at the half. The Eagles led 27-21 heading into the final quarter, before Mahomes quickly got the Chiefs the lead in the fourth, going up 28-27. A 65-yard Kadarius Toney punt return set the Chiefs up to go ahead further, with Skyy Moore catching a Patrick Mahomes pass for a touchdown to go up 35-27. The Eagles hit straight back, with a Jalen Hurts 2-yard TD run, followed by a 2-point conversion, tying the scores at 35. A methodical drive by the Chiefs was assisted by a DPI on James Bradberry, which all but assured the Chiefs the win. Harrison Butker slotted the 27-yard field goal, leaving only 8 seconds left on the clock. The Eagles were unable to score, leaving the Chiefs to win and claim their third Super Bowl in franchise history.
This game opened Chiefs -2.5, with the line touching 3 ever so briefly, before going back to Chiefs -2.5. My number for the game is Chiefs -2, so there is no value based purely off my numbers. If I had to choose, anything less than 3 I would take the Chiefs, but if the Eagles hit +3 again, I will take that. Patrick Mahomes doesn’t lose these games very often at all, and at -2.5, you basically just need the Chiefs to win the game.
The total is where I will direct my attention. Despite these teams putting up 73 points in the Super Bowl, I’m looking towards an under here. The total was 48 on the lookahead, before re-opening at 48.5. The under has been bet heavily, to where the total currently sits a full 3 points lower at 45.5. Whilst I would obviously have much preferred to recommend under 48.5, that number no longer exists.
There are a couple of reasons I like the under here. First up, the weather isn’t expected to be great in Kansas City on Monday night, with rain and cold temperatures expected throughout the day. The wind, whilst not extremely high, should still be strong enough to have an impact on scoring here.
Another reason I like the under here is both teams will surely want to keep some of their offensive game plan under wraps for a potential Super Bowl showdown. Neither team will want to have their good plays on tape, so a vanilla game plan could well be in effect for both teams on Monday night.
Finally, the Chiefs defence is the best unit on the field in my opinion. They will be determined to shut this Eagles’ offense down, and with the Chiefs propensity at playing at a terribly slow rate on offense, total drives could be at a minimum here. Without maximum efficiency by both teams on offense, the under has a great chance here.
To be honest though, I’ll just be sitting back and enjoying two of the best teams in the NFL go head-to-head in a stand-alone spot-on Monday Night Football. Should be a cracker.
Under 45.5 total points
$2 (1 Unit)
