With both Championships now wrapped up after Max Verstappen claimed his third straight Drivers’ Championship in Qatar, is there a chance Red Bull and Verstappen take their foot off the gas for the final 5 races of the season? Let’s hope so, as we look for some value heading into the final few races. This week is the 2nd of three US races this season, as the teams head to the Circuit of the Americas in Texas for round 19 of the Championship.
We were slightly unlucky with our two flyers on the McLaren boys to take Pole Position, as they weren’t far away at all in qualifying. Our record ended 1-4 (-0.3u), with our best bet of Norris on the podium saluting.
2023 Formula One Betting Tips – United States Grand Prix
Qatar Grand Prix Review
As mentioned, the McLaren’s were competitive early in the weekend, as Verstappen took Pole from George Russell, with Norris unfortunately exceeding track limits in both his Q3 runs. Despite Verstappen claiming top spot by 0.5s, the McLaren’s showed they would be competitive in the race.
At the start, the Mercedes pair of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell collided at turn 1, ending the race of Hamilton, whilst hurting any chance Russell had of a podium finish. As a result of this collision, Piastri got his McLaren straight up into the top 2, with both Alpine’s in the top 6. An early safety car due to the Hamilton crash led many to pit early for fresh tyres, which really mixed up the order throughout the Grand Prix.
The top 3 of Verstappen, Piastri, and Alonso maintained their places heading into the first round of stops, however Lando Norris managed to jump Alonso in the pits. George Russell and Sergio Perez ran inside the top 3 for a while as they were on a different pit timetable, however they never truly were in the fight for a podium, with Verstappen, Piastri, and Norris running away with the podium places.
Shoutout to Aussie Oscar Piastri, who on the back of his first Formula 1 podium in Japan, won his first career race in Formula 1 on Saturday, winning the Sprint Race.
United State Grand Prix Preview
With the hope of Red Bull and Verstappen taking their foot of the pedal heading into the final 5 races of the season, let’s dig into the data and see if we can find some value. Last season after Verstappen won the title at the Japanese Grand Prix, he followed it up by qualifying 2nd at the US Grand Prix, before winning the race by 5 seconds from Lewis Hamilton.
Ferrari were competitive last season in qualifying, however after Sainz was punted off the track by Russell on lap 1, it was difficult to see exactly where they were compared to Mercedes. I believe Ferrari will once again be competitive, and a 3-way battle for the podium places behind Red Bull between McLaren, Mercedes, and Ferrari is likely. This makes it difficult to find value, particularly on the cars behind the top 4, as this only leaves 2 places in the top 10. With Alonso clearly above the rest of the midfield, there’s just one spot to pick a driver, assuming none of the top 9 retire. Very difficult.
Given the lack of options, we will go a little chalkie, whilst also having another crack at one of the Macca boys taking Pole Position. They aren’t far away, and if Max is just slightly off his game on Saturday, the McLaren boys have a real shot.
Another small flyer on the other Aussie boy Daniel Ricciardo returning. We will have a couple of plays on his coming back strong.
Other Bets
Oscar Piastri (Pole Position) – $13 @ NEDS (0.5u)
Lando Norris (Pole Position) – $9 @ Bet365 (0.5u)
Daniel Ricciardo (Top 10) – $7.50 @ Ladbrokes (0.5u)
Daniel Ricciardo > Yuki Tsunoda – $2.08 @ Unibet (1u)
Lando Norris (Top 3) - $1.73 @ NEDS (1.5u)
Red Bull (both cars top 3)
$3 (1.5 Units)
