A week after Carlos Sainz and Ferrari snapped the Max Verstappen / Red Bull stranglehold on this Formula 1 season, we head to Suzuka for the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix. One of, if not THE best track on the Formula 1 calendar, racing at the famous figure of 8 track in Japan is not only a delight for the fans, but also the drivers. Can Max get back on track, or will we have another high-priced winner this weekend?
We were right in our handicapping of the race last week in deciding to take on Verstappen, but we got a little unlucky with a few of our bets, going 2-4 for +1.25u, managing a small profit.
2023 Formula One Betting Tips - Japanese Grand Prix
Singapore Grand Prix Review
Ferrari, and in particular Carlos Sainz, looked the class off the field all weekend in Singapore. A 1-2 in both FP1 and FP2 was followed up by Sainz going fastest in FP3, with Leclerc finishing P5. Heading into qualifying, Sainz was the favourite to take Pole Position, and he did so, followed by George Russell and Charles Leclerc. Verstappen was all the way down in 11th, and with Perez 13th on the grid, the Red Bull was in unfamiliar territory.
The Ferrari’s got away well, with Leclerc getting past Russell into the first corner. They managed the race well for the opening 20 laps, before a Virtual Safety Car changed everything. Ferrari and Leclerc tried to be too smart and double stack behind Sainz, but the stop was too slow, and Leclerc came out in effectively 4th position. Lando Norris jumped up into an effective 3rd place, in a massive move for the McLaren.
The race was steady until lap 44, when another Virtual Safety Car fell. The Mercedes pair of Russell and Hamilton decided to pit for fresh tyres, whilst the Ferrari’s and Norris decided to stay out. It took the Mercedes pair 10 laps to catch the others, with both passing Leclerc quickly. Some superb defensive driving by Sainz and Norris kept the Mercedes pair at bay, before Russell eventually crashed on the last lap, elevating Hamilton to the podium. A tremendous weekend from Sainz and Ferrari, can they keep it up?
Japanese Grand Prix Preview
Last season at the Japanese Grand Prix, the Ferrari was once again close to a match for the Red Bull, with Verstappen taking Pole by just 0.010s from Leclerc, with Sainz in 3rd. The race started in wet conditions, and Carlos Sainz crashed and was out on lap 1, and that was just the beginning of the carnage, with the race red flagged after 1 lap given the monsoonal rain. The race was reduced to just 40 minutes, and what followed was a Max Verstappen masterclass in the rain, winning by 27 seconds.
Whilst I expect the Ferrari to once again be competitive this weekend, I do believe the Red Bull, particularly with Verstappen behind the wheel, will be very quick. Max didn’t like the way the race went last weekend, and he will be looking to wrap up the Driver’s Championship this weekend with a dominant win.
I will go back to the well with Ferrari, although the prices aren’t quite what they were last weekend. Despite their efforts last week, the Ferrari pair are still priced below Lando and Hamilton, so there is still good value on the Ferrari pair.
And finally, pardon me if you’ve heard this before, but I’m also going back to the well with Yuki Tsunoda. His points finish price has cratered, given the solid form shown by the Alpha Tauri over the past few races, and with Tsunoda wanting to put on a big display at his home circuit, I love him to finally get some luck after two early retirements in a row.
Carlos Sainz (Top 3 finish)
$3.80 (2 Units)
Other Bets
Ferrari (both drivers top 6 finish) - $2.10 @ Bet365 (2u)
Charles Leclerc (Top 3 finish) - $3.80 @ Palmerbet (1u)
Yuki Tsunoda (Top 10 finish) - $2.40 @ Unibet (1u)
Max Verstappen (Winner, Pole Position, Fastest Lap) - $2.77 @ Unibet (1u)
