Round 18 of the 2021 AFL season brought some huge clashes between our Brownlow contenders, and once again the cream rose to the top. It's likely that Ollie Wines, Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Steele, Tom Mitchell, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett all polled votes in Round 18 action. However the stand out performance of the round went to Carlton's young superstar Sam Walsh. He was immense against the Pies to carry the Blues over the line for his fourth best-on-ground performance in a row by our Brownlow vote predictions. Walsh is into $10 in Brownlow betting, but he's now into the Top 3 on our leaderboard, with a realistic chance of claiming the medal!
Check out our analysis and 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 18 below!
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard with links to round-by-round voting posted there.
2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Vote Predictions - Round 18
Fremantle 3.13.31 def by Geelong 14.16.100
It was a Docker shocker to start the round as the Cats were far too classy on Friday night football. Cam Guthrie (35 disposals, 7 marks, 7 clearances), Sam Menegola (30 disposals, 9 marks, 7 clearances, 1 goal) and Zach Tuohy (30 disposals, 7 marks) won plenty of ball while Patrick Dangerfield (22 disposals, 7 marks, 6 clearances, 3 goals) hit the scoreboard. Not much to speak of for Freo but Sean Darcy (18 disposals, 37 hitouts, 8 clearances) was dominant before going off the ground with injury in the last quarter.
Cam Guthrie - 3
Sam Menegola - 2
Sean Darcy - 1
Richmond 16.10.106 def Brisbane 13.8.86
The Tigers are still alive in season 2021. Staring down the barrel of a fifth-straight defeat, the Tigers lifted in Jack Riewoldt’s 300th in a strong victory. Riewoldt led from the front with 6 goals from 14 disposals and 7 marks in his best game of the season. Big men Toby Nankervis (22 disposals, 25 hitouts, 7 clearances) and Mabior Chol (4 goals, 10 disposals, 12 hitouts) were enormous, while Jayden Short (27 disposals, 7 marks) and Kane Lambert (23 disposals) helped setup the victory. Hugh McLuggage (30 disposals, 5 marks, 1 goal) was best for the Lions.
Jack Riewoldt - 3
Toby Nankervis - 2
Mabior Chol - 0.5
Kane Lambert - 0.5
St.Kilda 8.13.61 def by Port Adelaide 10.14.74
The Power recorded an unconvincing but important win against the Saints. Ollie Wines will be racking up more Brownlow votes for his 36 disposals, 5 tackles, 11 clearances and 1 goal. However his efforts were matched by Saints captain Jack Steele who was huge with 37 disposals, 8 marks, 7 tackles and a goal. Karl Amon (26 disposals, 10 tackles, 2 goals), Brad Crouch (36 disposals, 9 tackles, 11 clearances) and Rowan Marshall (19 disposals, 6 marks, 5 tackles, 16 hitouts, 2 goals) will fight it out for the minor vote.
Ollie Wines - 2.5
Jack Steele - 2.5
Rowan Marshall - 1
Gold Coast 11.13.79 def by Western Bulldogs 14.6.90
The Suns were once again very competitive against one of the best sides in the league, but the Dogs did enough to get the job done. Brownlow favourite Marcus Bontempelli will probably feature in the votes, however his disposal efficiency was poor with a record 15 clangers amongst 36 disposals, 5 tackles and 9 clearances which may factor against him. Bailey Smith (33 disposals, 9 clearances) and Jack Macrae (31 disposals, 8 clearances, 2 goals) were also good for the Dogs. The Suns perhaps had the best player on the ground in Touk Miller who was brilliant with 38 disposals, 7 tackles and 8 clearances. Jeremy Sharp (30 disposals, 10 marks) and Brayden Fiorini (32 disposals, 6 tackles, 6 clearances) were also busy for the Suns.
Touk Miller - 3
Marcus Bontempelli - 2
Jack Macrae - 1
Melbourne 11.13.79 drew with Hawthorn 12.7.79
An eerie draw in the silence of an empty MCG. The Dees will be disappointed to miss out on four points, but Christian Petracca (33 disposals, 9 clearances), Clayton Oliver (35 disposals, 6 tackles, 9 clearances) and Jack Viney (32 disposals, 11 tackles, 6 clearances) were clearly among the best on the ground. They are likely to be separated from the votes by only Tom Mitchell who racked up 39 disposals, 6 tackles, 6 clearances and a goal.
Christian Petracca - 2.5
Tom Mitchell - 2.5
Clayton Oliver - 1
North Melbourne 11.8.74 def by Essendon 13.14.92
It wasn’t the best showing by the Bombers but they did enough to scratch out a win against the improving Kangaroos. It might be a tricky game for Brownlow voting. Darcy Parish was arguably the best four-quarter performer with 34 disposals, 6 tackles and 8 clearances, while partner in crime Zach Merrett also had 39 disposals and 9 clearances. Peter Wright (20 disposals, 7 marks, 10 hitouts, 3 goals) was influential, while Jake Stringer had a mixed day but was ultimately the match winner with 4 goals from 17 disposals and 5 clearances. For the Roos, Tarryn Thomas (23 disposals, 9 marks, 7 tackles, 1 goal) was excellent, while Aaron Hall (31 disposals, 14 marks) rebounded with great effect.
Darcy Parish - 2.5
Jake Stringer - 2.5
Zach Merrett - 1
Collingwood 9.8.62 def by Carlton 13.13.91
If there was ever a game to award six Brownlow votes to one player, then this was it. Sam Walsh was ridiculously good and so far above everyone else on the ground, it’s not even close. 39 disposals, 9 marks, 5 tackles, 5 clearances and the match-winning goal. Superb. With four best-on-ground matches in a row, Walsh is looming as a wildcard for the Brownlow! Matthew Kennedy (26 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) and Jack Martin (18 disposals, 11 marks, 5 tackles, 1 goal) were also influential. Jordan De Goey (31 disposals, 12 marks), John Noble (25 disposals, 11 marks) and Chris Mayne (26 disposals, 10 marks) were best for the Pies.
Sam Walsh - 3
Jordan De Goey - 2
Matthew Kennedy - 1
Adelaide 8.8.56 def by West Coast 14.14.98
West Coast are back on the winner’s list after easily accounting for the Crows. With Josh Kennedy a late out, it was Jamie Cripps who stepped up in the forward line with 5 goals from 25 disposals in a brilliant game. Liam Ryan (16 disposals, 10 marks, 3 goals) was also lively. They were well fed by Andrew Gaff (34 disposals, 8 marks) while Nic Naitanui (11 disposals, 7 clearances, 31 hitouts) was dominant in the ruck. Ben Keays (30 disposals, 6 tackles, 2 goals) and Rory Laird (34 disposals, 8 marks) tried hard for the Crows.
Jamie Cripps - 3
Andrew Gaff - 1
Ben Keays - 1
Rory Laird - 1
GWS Giants 11.6.72 def by Sydney 15.8.98
Perhaps the strangest match of the season saw the Swans recover from 35 points behind in the second quarter to record a 26-point victory. However the game will be remembered for the late withdrawal of five players just an hour before the match due to increased Covid protocols. Despite all that, the Swans were too good. Luke Parker led the way with 31 disposals, 6 tackles, 9 clearances and a goal while Josh Kennedy (30 disposals, 10 clearances) and George Hewett (30 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances) were also very good. Lance Franklin and Tom Papley both chipped in up forward with four goals each. Tim Taranto was best for the Giants with 27 disposals and 7 tackles.
Luke Parker - 3
Josh Kennedy - 2
Lance Franklin - 0.5
Tom Papley - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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