Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Randwick on Saturday, October 3rd.
It's Super Saturday at Randwick this Saturday, with the biggest day of the Sydney carnival featuring three Group 1s! The Flight Stakes, Epsom Handicap and The Metropolitan headline affairs at headquarters, and Tim Geers has assessed all nine races below!
The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail out 3m.
Randwick Racing Tips: 2020 Epsom Handicap Day
Best Bet: Race 9 – (4) Hilo
Best Value: Race 7 – (9) Wild Planet / (12) Funstar
Cracking race to kick off the program! I’m sticking with two horses I tweeted were ready to win after their last starts. (5) Opacity ran well last start, beaten 1.6L into 3rd after settling last. I think that will top him off nicely to peak third up here. He’s undefeated third up and has a good record at the track and distance, so with a 3kg weight swing on Discharged, I think he can turn the tables. (4) Matowi was the other horse out of that race I wanted to follow. He finished 4th and also made his run from the back of the field. He’s another with a good record at the track and distance and he gets a softer barrier draw in 3 today so maybe he settles one pair further forward. He’s now third up from a short break so expect him to peak as well and double figure odds looks appealing. (9) Laure Me In finds it hard to win but he’s got a good second up record and JMac sticks with him as he drops in the weights. He gets a 5.5kg swing on Discharged from when they met three weeks ago and he can run a big race. (2) Discharged is flying and looks the only leader in the race, so if he lands in front and makes it a sprint home, he’s going to be very hard to catch once again.
They didn’t waste any time getting stuck into (4) Enthaar, who is now into $1.75. She ran the quickest time of the morning at the 2YO trials on the Kensington track a couple of weeks ago, recording 50.00 for the 850m. She broke away to score by 4.8L, with a further 4L back to the third horse. While margins like that aren’t unusual for trials, the time she ran backed up how visually impressive she was. The Sydney two-year-olds from this stable last season were terrific and this filly can continue that theme here. Whether you’re keen on taking $1.75 about an early-season two-year-old on debut is the question.
Pretty keen to back two horses here at $6.00 and $6.50 respectively. (4) Construct is the first of those, a colt from the Peter and Paul Snowden yard with Tommy Berry booked to ride. He ran 2nd in his trial and was under the whip to do so, but this stable is very good with juveniles and the good barrier draw is a big help. Only one horse in the past 13 years has won this race from a double-digit barrier. It wouldn’t shock me to see him start shorter. The other horse I want to have something on is (12) Shaquero for Chris Waller and James McDonald. This combination won this race last year and it’s interesting to see this horse trialled at the Gold Coast before coming down to Sydney. Drawn well in barrier 5 so should get a good run and as the stable’s only runner, I expect him to measure right up. The favourite (6) Kalashnikov is another from the Snowden yard and he trialled well with Bowman aboard, who sticks for raceday. The barrier draw is slightly tricky though. Backing Construct and Shaquero.
Also backing: (4) Construct $6.00
Interesting little field for the G2 Hill Stakes. (1) Fierce Impact was a last-start G1 winner in Melbourne, defeating Russian Camelot in the Makybe Diva Stakes. Russian Camelot has since come out and won a G1 so the form has stacked up. Prior to that, Fierce Impact ran 3rd in the Winx Stakes behind Verry Elleegant and Star Of The Seas. It’s a different challenge stepping up to 2000m today. It’s the first time he’s raced over this distance since winning in December 2018. That victory is basically the reason he goes on top here, because at least he’s ticked the 2000m box. (2) Kolding on the other hand, hasn’t won past 1600m, so it’s a bit of an unknown with him. I assume they’ll go forward and it’s possible he even leads this field. He was a last-start winner of the G1 George Main Stakes. His only prior run over 2000m was in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes last prep, but he was out of form at that stage and it was on heavy ground, so it’s hard to say he just doesn’t run the trip. It really wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him come out and win. The real 2000m horse in the race is (3) Avilius who gets the blinkers on for the first time in his career. It screams a desperation move for a 7YO who is well below his best. If he was at his best, he’d win this, but it looks unlikely. (8) Dadoozdart is the intriguing runner in the race. He had showed absolutely nothing from three Australian starts leading into his last run, but he had the blinkers applied and it really switched him on, finishing off strongly behind Probabeel. Up to 2000m now, which is no problem at all for him, in fact it’s a positive. Won’t be letting him go around $17.
Value: (8) Dadoozdart $17
Race 5 (Market) - G1 Flight Stakes 1600m
The G1 Flight Stakes looks a race in two between (1) Dame Giselle and (2) Hungry Heart, who have run the quinella in both the Furious Stakes and the Tea Rose Stakes leading into this. Dame Giselle has got the better of Hungry Heart on both occasions, but the step up to the mile third up from a spell is the factor that really looks important in Hungry Heart turning the tables. I’m against that however, and I’ll be sticking with Dame Giselle to make it four straight wins this campaign. She has travelled into her races so beautifully on every occasion, whether it’s been at 1200m or 1400m, and whether she’s sat wide without cover or had a nice trail. Nothing to me suggests that she isn’t going to run the mile, or be just as well suited over the mile. She draws barrier 1 here so she’s going to get every chance to travel into the race and her turn of foot is electric so if she gets any luck, she’ll be very hard to beat. The thing that may help Hungry Heart is if she can land outside Dame Giselle and then pocket her rounding the turn. If she gets first run on Dame Giselle, then she will be very hard to peg back, but I’m not necessarily of the belief that she’s the best chance purely because it’s a mile.
I’m sticking with the big grey (2) Classique Legend here. His first up win in The Shorts was enormous, prompting trainer Les Bridge to say he’s the best horse he’s ever trained (and he’s trained some good ones). He’s got a terrific record at the track and we know he’s going to run a strong 1200m. (1) Nature Strip was beaten as the long odds-on favourite first up in the Concorde Stakes. He always performs better second and third up, so he should be in better shape with that run under the belt, but it hasn’t been smooth sailing since then. He dumped James McDonald in a trial and then missed the start slightly in his most recent trial. It’s unlike him to be doing those things and he shouldn’t be doing them. If he plays up like that and misses the start, even slightly, it’s going to make it very hard for him to run a strong 1200m. I think you are very brave if you are diving into $1.85. At those prices, I’m much happier backing Classique Legend. (4) Standout is one to include in exotics. He cost himself any chance missing the start first up in The Shorts, and I thought he’d be a very good winning chance that day. Nash Rawiller replaces JMac and if he jumps on terms, expect him to be ridden much further forward. I don’t think he’s hopeless. (8) Libertini next best.
Value: (4) Standout $14
(2) Classique Legend
$3.20
Race 7 (Market) - G1 Epsom Handicap 1600m
A wide-open Epsom Handicap. I’m in the corner of (9) Wild Planet and (12) Funstar, who finished top two in the Theo Marks Stakes last start. Planet Warrior ran down Funstar on that occasion, but Funstar sat wide without cover throughout and was very brave in defeat. It was retribution for Wild Planet, who was luckless first up in the Show County. Funstar has been aimed at this all prep and they’ve said all along she will be best over 1600m+, so down to 52.5kg here and third up at the mile, I think she goes very close. With $13 for Planet Warrior and $9.00 available for Funstar, I’m happy to back both and make them my best value bets of the day. (13) Rock ran 5th in this race last year after winning the G3 Cameron Handicap at Newcastle, and he comes into this year’s race off a win in the same race. He was dominant this time around, scoring by 3.7L. Tommy Berry jumps off Wild Planet to stick with him, which is telling. (3) Star Of The Seas has been luckless in two starts this prep, both in G1 company. Those look the best form references and with any luck from barrier 1, he surely goes close. (11) Probabeel is right at the top of betting. She was outstanding first up and followed that up with a solid enough win in the Bill Ritchie last start. She was my best bet last start, but I must admit I thought she would win a touch easier with the run she had. However, it was a sit and sprint and she will relish the rise to 1600m today. (20) Vanna Girl not hopeless.
Race 8 (Market) - G1 The Metropolitan 2400m
The G1 The Metropolitan is more like the G3 Newcastle Cup. It’s a poor field and the last-start Newcastle Cup winner (2) Mugatoo can break through at G1 level this time. He gave them all weight and gave them all a beating last start, making it three from three this preparation. Drawn well in barrier 7, he looks the one to beat again despite carrying second-top weight. (8) Brimham Rocks finished off well last start in the Kingston Town and he looks suited third up here at 2400m – a distance he won over comfortably in Brisbane at the end of last prep. This looks a typical Waller set up so expect him to peak here and be very competitive. (15) Paths Of Glory can be competitive at big odds returning to firm ground, which he is undefeated on. (5) Raheen House is another to include at blowout odds ($101). He hasn’t done anything in his first two runs back but he performed similarly last prep before winning third up over 2600m. (18) Zebrowski finds a race he really should be competitive in but the jury is out on him. Mugatoo on top, something small on Paths Of Glory and Raheen House at giant odds.
Value: (15) Paths Of Glory $26 & (5) Raheen House $101
Saving my best bet of the day for the last race here. I’m very keen on (4) Hilo to get the job done. His first up run behind Fituese was terrific, settling near the back of the field before slicing his way through the field in the straight. He was only edged out by 0.2L by Fituese, who is a bombproof winner. Even though Masked Crusader flopped last week to put some query on the form, I think it’s still a fairly reliable reference and I’m happy to say Hilo is the best horse in the field. Barrier 9 is a bit tricky but with any luck, he looks the horse to beat. Stablemate (6) Athiri was very impressive visually in winning last start, but her chances were done the world of good after her main rival bombed the start by 6L, along with a few others. She was able to land in the one-one with 52kg and skipped away from them in the straight. I think this is a harder race and even though she comes up with a good draw, I think Hilo is the better horse. (1) Handle The Truth resumes and he goes like a bomb first up, with four wins from six starts. Apprentice Tom Sherry is booked and that’s a negative, but I would think they would want this horse to be very competitive ahead of The Kosciuszko. He looks the value at $11.
Value: (1) Handle The Truth $11
