Week 5 kicks off with two teams that have underperformed on expectations over the first month of the season, when the Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) head to Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (2-2). It looked like the Colts may have turned the corner after their surprise victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in week 3, however they were once again poor last week in a home divisional matchup, losing 24-17 to the Titans. A poor loss here could confirm that the Colts just aren’t good this season, and that Matt Ryan is washed. The Broncos have managed to keep their heads afloat, despite struggling to score points, and will be looking for another win to stay in the playoff hunt in the loaded AFC West.
Our Best Bet on Monday Night Football never had a chance, with the Rams continuing their poor start to a Super Bowl defence, going down 24-9 to the 49ers. We are now sitting at 5-1-3 (+3.87u) for the season in primetime games.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Preview & Betting Tips
Sport Authority Field at Mile High, Friday 11:15am AEDT
Last Week
The Colts had a fantastic opportunity last week to build some momentum, after an impressive win over the Chiefs in week 3, as they closed 4-point home favourites to Divisional rivals the Tennessee Titans. Whilst the box score looked somewhat favourable towards the Colts, who totalled 123 more total yards, 1.1 yards per play more, and 4.4 yards per pass more than the Titans, the Colts inevitably came up short, losing 24-17. The Colts lost the turnover battle 3-0 and were unable to get going on the ground, with All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor limited to only 42 yards on the ground from 20 carries. Adding injury to insult, Taylor also suffered an ankle injury and is out this week versus the Broncos.
The Broncos headed to Sin City to take on Divisional rivals the Raiders, where they eventually lost 32-23 in a game that probably should have been closer. Broncos running back Melvin Gordon lost a fumble that was taken to the house, which ultimately proved the difference between the teams. The Broncos were gashed up the middle, with running back Josh Jacobs running for 144 yards on 28 carries and 2 touchdowns. The Broncos defence, which had been stout over the opening 3 weeks, was poor, and should improve this weekend against the low scoring Colts. Like the Colts, the Broncos also lose their starting running back, with Javonte Williams tearing his ACL.
Injury Report
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor (RB) – OUT
Shaq Leonard (OLB) – OUT
Julian Blackmon (FS) – OUT
Tyquan Lewis (DE) – OUT
Carter O’Donnell (OG) – OUT
Andrew Ogletree (TE) – OUT
Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams (RB) – OUT
Randy Gregory (OLB) – OUT
Justin Simmons (FS) – OUT
Tim Patrick (WR) – OUT
Christopher Allen / Aaron Patrick / Jonathon Cooper (LB) – OUT
Quinn Meinerz (OG) – OUT
Michael Ojemudia (CB) – OUT
Match Preview
Whilst this is a fascinating contest in terms of the AFC playoff permutations, I am struggling with the handicapping of this game. As a result, it’s going to be a small outlay, as these two teams are high on my list of uncertainty when it comes to rating each team. I had both teams rated as high-level squads heading into the season, however both have disappointed. I am more confident in the Broncos at this stage of the season, however as the Colts showed two weeks ago against the Chiefs, they can show up and win on any given Sunday.
Both these teams have only covered the spread once this year, and I don’t trust either team to win by margin, so the line sitting at 3 seems about right to me, with my number sitting bang on Broncos (-3). The total is also quite low, despite points per game increasing by 7 on average between weeks 1 to 3 and week 4. Despite this, I can’t take an over, with the Colts offence potentially the worst in the league without Jonathan Taylor, and the Broncos continuing to struggle on that side of the ball.
Speaking of injuries, whilst the loss of Taylor will certainly affect the Colts offence, the continued absence of Shaq Leonard is an even bigger concern. The do-it-all linebacker is the backbone of this team, and with him missing the defence lacks an identity.
Another thing to look at is the Colts having to travel west two time zones on a short week to play at altitude. This is a tough spot for the Colts, and a team playing as poorly as them could well struggle.
Whilst the Broncos are still underperforming, their offense took a step forward last week. If their defence can get back to what it was in the early weeks of the season, I see them squeaking home on Thursday Night. Again, only small stakes, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the Broncos win by 3, but we will side with the Broncos to get the job done.
Alternate Bet: Under 42.5 - $1.97 @ Betfair
Prop Bet: Mo Alie-Cox (Anytime TD scorer) - $5.60 @ Ladbrokes
Broncos (-3)
$1.93 (1 Unit)
