We back up from Roland Garros with another Grand Slam a couple of weeks later, and it shapes as another fascinating fortnight of tennis at Wimbledon. Tennis expert, Ace is here to take a look at the quarters of each draw, beginning with the men’s, in his search for value in the outright markets that are available.
Men’s Wimbledon 2024 Preview & Betting Tips
Quarter 1
We have a new world number 1, and it is the Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner. The Italian has delivered an incredibly consistent level across the course of the 2024 season, and pushed eventual Roland Garros champion Carlos Alcaraz all the way in their semi-final meeting. It was a somewhat shaky start on the grass for Sinner, however his ability to steady the ship and turn things around, and still win when not playing his best, has been a key element to his rise to world number 1. Sinner has a fascinating couple of early road blocks here, with Matteo Berrettini and Tallon Griekspoor potential second and third round opponents, whilst also needing to likely defeat one of Grigor Dimitrov/Daniil Medvedev to get out of the quarter. There are a number of very capable players on grass in this section, including those already mentioned, and even Jan-Lennard Struff and Ben Shelton, so there are plenty of challenges for Sinner here. Sinner looks a touch short, however you can throw a blanket across the best challengers, and I’d just look to one or two at double figure odds to win the quarter.
Quarter 2
One of the more fascinating aspects of this draw is the fact that not only is tournament favourite in Sinner in the top half, but the second favourite in Roland Garros champion Carlos Alcaraz is also present. Alcaraz has a pretty favourable draw through the first week of the tournament, and looks incredibly hard to knock off in this section when you consider the next highest seed is Casper Ruud, who is not a fan of the surface. Tommy Paul and Ugo Humbert have the best grass ability in this section, however Paul may have a 2nd round against Max Purcell and a third round against Alexander Bublik, which isn’t particularly appealing when looking at his price. Looking elsewhere and the other name to stand out is Jordan Thompson, however he is coming in under an injury cloud and I’d like to see him play in round 1 first. The quality does drop off from there once you consider form and fitness issues, so although the motivation of Bublik can be questioned sometimes, we should see his best effort here and his price to win the quarter, knowing he wouldn’t face Alcaraz until the quarter final, looks to be the way here.
Quarter 3
Well this is about as wide open as they come with respect to quarter markets, with all players at odds of $3.50 or greater. The quarter may very well hinge of the result of what may be a MASSIVE third round clash between Alexander Zverevand Jack Draper, who are the two favourites in the quarter. I’ve been high on Draper since the start of the grass season, however that third round, and a potential tricky second round with Cameron Norrie, is a little offputting. We also have other grass title winners in Alejandro Tabilo and Taylor Fritz, not to mention the likes of Sebastian Korda, Lorenzo Musetti, Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas in the section. If you are looking for the player with a relatively favourable early draw in this section, I’d be directing you towards Fritz, who should be making the 4th round at a minimum, and will be a tough opponent in week 2.
Quarter 4
We weren’t sure if we would be seeing Novak Djokovic on the grass given his knee surgery post Roland Garros, however the Serbian has looked good in the footage of him in the lead-up to the tournament. He would have been smiling when he saw his early draw too, which will allow him to find his feet on the grass as he builds confidence in his body. Best of 5 set tennis is a different beast though, so I will be keeping an eye on him early in the tournament. There look to be three players who may be capable of an upset in this quarter, and they are Hubert Hurkacz, Alex De Minaurand Holger Rune, however in terms of current odds, I give the edge to De Minaur and then Rune. I prefer De Minaur for the quarter, but will also make a small play on Rune in the outrights given his price.
Summary
It’s a fascinating draw, but is a little on the trickier side when it comes to the outright selections. Let’s summarise the thoughts quarter by quarter:
Quarter 1 – Sinner is very short for the potential tricky opponents across the course of the quarter. No bet for me.
Quarter 2 – Preference with the longer odds of Alexander Bublik to win the quarter for a small play.
Quarter 3 – wide wide open, but at the current odds the best look is Taylor Fritz
Quarter 4 – Alex De Minaur appeals
Outright – The best odds overall appear to be at Betfair, and the players that appeal the most are Carlos Alcaraz, Alex De Minaur, Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune
Suggested Bets
Alexander Bublik Quarter 2 Winner ($21 at Topsport – 0.2 units)
Taylor Fritz Quarter 3 Winner ($7 at Topsport – 0.2 units)
Alex De Minaur Quarter 4 Winner ($6.50 at Topsport/Bet365 – 0.4 units)
Carlos Alcaraz to win tournament ($3.55 at Betfair minus commission – 1 unit)
Alex De Minaur to win tournament ($34 at Betfair minus commission - 0.5 units)
Taylor Fritz to win tournament ($60 at Betfair minus commission – 0.5 units)
Holger Rune to win tournament ($65 at Betfair minus commission - 0.5 units)
I may look to trade out of some of these outright winner markets in the second week – keep an eye out!
