Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, March 7th.
It's Super Saturday at Flemington this weekend, with the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap and Group 1 Australian Cup headlining the program.
Find our race-by-race preview and betting tips for a huge day in Melbourne below!
Flemington Racing Tips: Super Saturday 2020
Best Bet: Race 5 - (10) Wild Planet
Best Value: Race 2 - (9) The Watchman
Race 1 (Market)
(5) Minhaaj was backed as if unbeatable on debut at Bendigo and justified the market support, bolting in by 5L despite sitting three-wide the trip. The horse that ran 3rd then came out and won its next start which is a positive sign for the form. He probably won't want it too wet but he looks a classy horse on the up, whereas a few others may be coming here as an afterthought. (2) Muntaseera was a good run in the Blue Diamond, where she ended up in the slow lanes on a day where you had to be on speed and on the inside. The query is whether the Diamond was her grand final but she is only third up from 10-week break so shouldn't be too overtaxed.
Race 2 (Market)
Wide open race the Sires Produce. The one that immediately caught my eye as a sneaky chance was (9) The Watchman for Greg Eurell and Glen Boss. He was well-backed on debut at Sandown, where he jumped slowly, ended up at the back of the field and ran home eye-catchingly to be beaten 1.25L, recording the fastest final splits of the race. The step up in distance will help him and we saw this stable have a smart two-year-old winner here last weekend in Ilovemyself. At $13 he's worth having something on each way.
Race 3 (Market)
Whether 1400m first up is too sharp is the query but I think (8) Russian Camelot is a potential star in the making. He was a very impressive winner on debut at Bendigo before being beaten by Pancho during the Flemington carnival during the Spring. Pancho goes around in the Randwick Guineas today and I think he's a chance, so that form lines up well for a race like this. Damian Lane on, drawn well, will need the track to allow horses to run on but he looks the best horse in the race. (11) Scottish Dancer was huge when winning first up. Will be out the back in the run so will be in a similar situation to Russian Camelot. Craig Williams stays with (4) Vegas Knight who has the ability to run a good race here. (3) Spend gets the blinkers applied for the first time, while (9) The Lifeline gets blinkers back on for his first up run. He'll lead with Meech on board.
(8) Russian Camelot
$4.60
Race 4 (Market)
(1) Spanish Reef looks a terrific winning chance today. She returns to her pet track and distance today third up from a spell. Four of her seven career wins have been at Flemington, with three of those coming over the mile, from just four attempts. She's won three of her six starts when third up from a spell and her two runs so far this prep have both been good while building to a race like this. With even luck she looks the one to beat. (2) Greysful Glamour normally needs a run to come good but she managed to win and win well first up at Caulfield, but that was on a day which heavily favoured leaders and those on the inside of the track. I'll be tkaing her on again today especially with the wet ground. (3) Bonvicini was a long-priced winner first up over 1400m on soft ground at Caulfield. She's only had six starts and still has more upside so she can't be ruled out at double figure odds.
Race 5 (Market)
(10) Wild Planet looks to find his race today but he is a horse that can be hard to trust. His first two runs this prep have been in Group 1 and Group 2 company so he gets a big drop in grade back to Listed company today. He's had three runs at Flemington and has never finished out of the top two. He's never missed the money third up from a spell, including a win at Scone over this distance at the same stage last prep. Drops in weight, should take up a position on speed and prove very hard to beat. (9) Sirius Suspect steps up to 1400m which is some sort of query given all six career wins have been at 1200m, but he goes well here at Flemington and he has two wins from three starts when third up from a spell. Damian Lane takes over today and I think he represents a bit of value at $9.00. (6) Kentucky Breeze can be thrown in at $26.
Value: (9) Sirius Suspect $9.00
Race 6 - G1 Newmarket Handicap (Market)
Only one horse in recent memory has won the Newmarket first up from a spell and that was Redkirk Warrior a few years ago, so history is against (6) Exceedence but that's the way I'm going. The wet track is sure to suit him; he won the Coolmore here in the Spring over this same track and distance on a wet track. I think this has been the plan all along for him and I think he has the best turn of foot in the race, so with conditions suiting him, I'm expecting a big run. (5) Bivouac of course ran 2nd to him in the Coolmore and the wet track probably hurts his chances rather than enhance them. He would have preferred it firmer but he's not hopeless by any means. He was OK first up in the Oakleigh Plate but he didn't get things to suit on a day where you needed to be on pace and on the rail. He can bounce back, but it's notable that Craig Williams jumps off him to stay with (11) Loving Gaby, who ran well in the Lightning Stakes first up. The 1200m here suits her better and she gets in well at the weights with just 52.5kg on her back. (1) Gytrash won the Lightning at big odds but he shouldn't be underestimated today. He's undefeated at Flemington, has a terrific record second up and has four wins from five starts on soft ground. He has to carry top weight but he still rates highly. (4) The Inevitable has a little class query next to him but there's no query about his winning record, with eight victories from 11 starts. (9) Tofane is a blowout.
Race 7 (Market)
Quality race. (5) How Womantic has done nothing wrong in four career starts to date and she's been very good to me, so I'll stick with her today. She steps up to 1400m for the first time and she also gets blinkers applied for the first time. The wide draw is a little negative and the wet ground is certainly a query but at $6.00 that's a decent price to see if her class can overcome those factors. Her stablemate (6) Fascino is another one I've been following and I thought her first up run was good, running 4th over track and distance. She will be better suited next start when she steps up to the mile, but Craig Williams jumps on today and the blinkers go on for the first time, so there's a couple of very notable positives and at $17 she's not the worst bet. (1) Rubisaki has been faultless this preparation, last seen winning impressively on wet ground in Sydney. The form out of that race is questionable and she'll need to be at her best today, but if she is, this is another race within her keeping.
Race 8 - G1 Australian Cup (Market)
The G1 Australian Cup is a race I'm hugely keen to bet in because I think there's two (max three) standout horses. (5) Kings Will Dream looks the obvious each way bet in the race at $7.50, which looks a particularly good price to me. He comes here ready to peak and gets everything to suit. He's been beaten 0.4L and 0.2L in his two starts this preparation. He now steps up to 2000m third up, and his third up record leading into this is three wins and a 2nd from four starts. He's got two wins to his name on soft ground, so the conditions will pose no problem. He was a Group 1 winner over this track and distance at this stage of his preparation in the Spring. He's drawn the inside gate, can sit forward of midfield and looks a terrific each way chance. (6) Regal Power is the other horse I'm keen on. I thought his first up run in the Peter Young Stakes at Caulfield was terrific. He settled at the back fo the field (as he usually does) and came widest in the straight on a day where you had to be on speed and on the rail. He was only beaten just over a length, so his run had plenty of merit. That was his first run over here and his first run for nine weeks. He'll improve significantly second up (he has two wins from three starts when second up), the extra distance will suit and the Flemington track gives him his chance to wind up down the outside and swoop home over the top. $7.00 is a good price for him too. (2) Avilius gets things to suit with the soft ground and the step up to 2000m third up, but I think he's short enough at $3.30. (1) Vow And Declare will run an honest race at his first appearance since winning the Melbourne Cup. Kings Will Dream and Regal Power the two for me.
Also backing: (6) Regal Power $7.00
(5) Kings Will Dream
$7.50
Race 9 (Market)
(4) Garner is a horse I've got plenty of time for and he resumes from a spell here. He's so far only been able to win at 1000m so the 1100m first up is a slight query, but I think he's a horse with plenty of class and I expect he'll give this a big shake fresh. When this stable bring them to Melbourne it's generally not just to make up the numbers. (14) Modear looks big odds at $26. She ran 3rd to How Womantic two starts back, which is very good form, and then was given no chance last start when held up the majority of the straight. Apprentice Nathan Punch is replaced by stable jockey Billy Egan today and we saw Modear win over this track and distance on soft ground just a few starts ago. (8) Seatonic was dominant as expected first up and she should relish the track conditions, so she's a winning chance again. (13) Little Rich Boy ran 2nd to Alabama Express last time we saw him. Alabama Express then went and won a G1 at its next start, which looks quite reasonable form for this 3YO Listed race.
