Two wins and two losses in our NFL Week 3 betting tips but we did tip the Cleveland Browns to cover a three point line after not winning a football match for over 600 days, that has to count for something doesn’t it??
We’ll look to go one better in Week 4 as we take a look at the key games of the weekend and give our betting tips below.
NFL Week 4 Betting Tips
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (Friday 10.20am AEST)
Week 4 gets underway with a fantastic clash between the Rams and Vikings. The Rams have looked the team to beat in the early part of the 2018-19 season, racking up a 3-0 record and winning by double digits in all three games. Running back Todd Gurley has looked like the early MVP favourite and while QB Jared Goff still looks a little raw at times, the amount of weapons he has around him on both offence and defence makes his life very easy.
Many thought the Vikings had the best defence in the league leading into the season, however, after a good win over the 49ers in Week 1, they have allowed the Packers and Bills to score 29 and 27 points against them respectively to record a tie and a loss over the last two weeks. The Bills loss was particularly troubling, as Buffalo had scored just 23 points in their first two games, both losses.
It will be the second year in a row that the Vikings ad Rams have met in the regular season, with the Vikings winning last year’s clash by a comfortable 24-7 score line. Todd Gurley failed to fire that day as the Minnesota run defence completely shut him down. This season, however, the Vikings have already allowed 316 rushing yards through three games, which is only the 16th best mark in the league. Can not see the Vikings rush defence stopping Gurley this week and until the Rams give me a reason not to, I’ll continue to tip them to win by a TD or more with comfort.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers (Monday 6.25am AEST)
The 49ers copped a big blow on the weekend as their starting QB Jimmy Garappolo went down with a season ending knee injury against the Chiefs. Backup C.J Beathard will step in to take up the QB responsibilities from here but it’s hard to like the 49ers chances with him at the helm. Beathard started just five games last season and never threw only four touchdown passes, never surpassing the 300-yard mark.
The Chargers had a great opportunity to make a statement on the weekend with their LA derby against the Rams but ultimately couldn’t get the job done as they went down by 12 points. Phillip Rivers was good, passing for 226 yards and 2 touchdowns while Melvin Gordon chipped in for 80 yards along the ground but the Chargers defence looked woeful and allowed 521 total yards to the Rams.
The Chargers will have a much easier task this week, however. The 49ers won’t be able to move the ball up and down the field as easily as the Rams did, especially with Beathard at QB. There’s no doubting the Chargers ability to score points, they have put up 28, 31 and 23 points in their three games respectively. We think they win this 30-13 or a similar score line.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Monday 10.20am AEST)
Baltimore proved that they are still a dominant home team with a fantastic 27-14 win over the Broncos on the weekend but they will be back on the road in Week 4 as they face off against divisional rivals in the Steelers. Joe Flacco passed for 277 yards and a touchdown in the win and maintained a 100% red zone efficiency rating.
Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers shot out to a massive lead in their Week 3 game against the Buccaneers on Tuesday but were reeled in and almost choked the victory in the last quarter as Big Ben gave up a fumble and threw an interception in what was otherwise a pretty solid game offensively. The Steelers put up 30 points as Roethlisberger threw for 353 yards and three touchdowns.
Baltimore are a force to be reckoned with at home but their form away from M&T Bank Stadium did not look good at all as they succumbed to the Bengals in Week 2. The good thing for them is they are getting their road divisional games out of the way nice and early in the season with away games against the Steelers and Browns in the next two weeks. The Steelers start as 3.5-point favourites here but we are actually going to side with the away team. We think there is real kinks in the Steelers defence that Joe Flacco should be able to exploit.
Baltimore Ravens +3.5
$1.91
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (Tuesday 10.15am AEST)
The Chiefs continued their winning ways on the weekend, downing the 49ers to make it three wins in a row. Second year QB Patrick Mahomes has been a revelation in the opening games and already looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the league having helped his team but up 38, 42 and 38 points in the first three games. He was nuts again on the weekend, passing for 314 yards and three touchdowns while the weapons he has around him in Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Spencer Ware and Sammy Watkins are truly scary.
Denver moved to 2-1 on the season with a loss to the Ravens in Baltimore after the first two games produced great wins over the Seahawks and Raiders. They’ll be thankful to be back at home this weekend but the matchup against the Chiefs is an extremely tough one. Denver’s defence has allowed the seventh most passing yards in the league throughout the first three games, which is a weakness Mahomes and the Chiefs will certainly look to exploit.
The Chiefs are a bit like the Rams for me. They keep getting the job done and until the give me a reason not to, it’s hard to side against them even away from home. They just have so many offensive weapons even on a bad day we can still see them scoring over 25 points comfortably.
