Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Caulfield Cup Day at Caulfield on Saturday, October 19th.
We have a huge 10-race card to get through which is of course headlined by the Group 1 Caulfield Cup. Outside of the Cup, we’ve also got two Group 2’s and four Group 3’s amongst the other nine races.
The track will be a Good 3 with the rail in the 6m position. They raced in the True position midweek so it should play fairly today.
Listen to @Tim_Tips Racing Preview with the Before You Bet Podcast!
In Episode 5 of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the weekend's action at Randwick and Caulfield and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Saturday, October 21st! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!
We have every race on the card covered with comments and betting tips below!
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 7 Snitty Kitty
Best Value: Race 1 Sworn Evidence EW
Race 1
Tricky little race to start off with. At the price I’ll be taking on OUR CROWN MISTRESS. She comes off a dominant win at Geelong but she started $1.55 on that occasion and steps up massively in class here. COUNTERPLAY should have won two starts ago and finished off well to run 2nd to Invincible Star last start. That’s a good form line and the step up to 1400m looks suitable. The wide barrier is a concern though. I’ve got NAANTALI on top who cost $180k and was unwanted in betting on debut but won well in a 1200m maiden at Cranbourne. Her winning time on that day was faster than the other 1200m on the card which was at BM70 level. She draws the inside gate here with form jockey Mark Zahra aboard and has already had early support. $5.50 best price available now. I think the clear value in the race is SWORN EVIDENCE at double figure odds for Darren Weir and Craig Williams. She started $1.55 last start but was caught three-wide the trip and ran 4th. Prior to that she beat Pinot at Geelong, who then bolted in at its next start. Weir always brings these horses to the city from the country and they always measure up. Very keen each way.
TIP: Naantali / Sworn Evidence EW (Best Value)
Race 2
Tough race. BEAU GESTE ran 3rd to the very talented Viridine last start, with Second Bullet just ahead of him in 2nd. That looks a good form line to bring to Melbourne but the concern is how the Godolphin runners are faring in Melbourne in recent weeks. ÉCLAIR SUNSHINE finished alongside Royal Symphony two starts ago and ran into trouble in the Guineas prelude last start. From the good draw he should get his chance here. OCTOBELLO returned from a break with a huge win in BM64 grade at Flemington to keep his unbeaten record intact. He also draws well but will need to jump better if he’s to feature. LORD SUNDOWNER has won his past two starts by a combined 7.75L and will jump to the lead from barrier 8. Much stiffer test today though. WOULDA THOUGHT SO motored home from the back of the field last start to win impressively. He may be looking for even further than this but his win was enormous and no doubt he will measure up here. Looks a nice each way bet. Include ALMIGHTY coming down to Melbourne for the Snowdens.
TIP: Éclair Sunshine / Woulda Thought So EW
Race 3
This is probably the toughest race of the day. ONE MORE HONEY comes out of some strong Sydney races behind the likes of Alizee and looks ready for the step up to 2000m now. Draws an inside barrier so should get a great run and be very competitive. HIYAAM was very game when running 2nd behind Bring Me Roses last start. PINOT bolted in last start after box seating; expect them to roll forward from the wide gate. If she has to work early then she might be found wanting late over 2000m. TEODORA earns a shot in town after two impressive wins in lower grade. She motored home on debut and followed that up with a dominant display last time out at Bendigo. She should relish the step up to 2000m. THINK DIAMONDS ran 2nd to Pinot last start and can go well again with the extra distance. STATE OF PLAY bolted in at Hawkesbury last start when stepped up to 2000m and can go well from the good draw. This really isn’t a race I’m keen to get involved in but if anything I’ll have something small on Teodora and State of Play.
TIP: Teodora / State Of Play EW
Race 4
Another very even race with four horses that have genuine winning chances. TANGLED ran 2nd in Group 1 company in Sydney last start but the quality of that Group 1 race was very low. This is probably a step up in class from what he faced there but Waller’s got him peaking and he’ll go very close. CLIFF’S EDGE ran an enormous race last start when they flew along in front and he just got run down late by MAIN STAGE. With the smaller field and a softer run in front today I think Cliff’s Edge can go one better. My concern is John Allen retaining the ride but if he gets a couple of cheaper sectionals today he’ll be able to lead and win. MAIN STAGE was enormous coming from the back on that occasion but from barrier 1 today there’s a chance they’ll sit much closer in the run, just as they did two starts ago. Mark Zahra takes over for the ride and he’s a big chance once again. TAVISTOCK ABBEY beat Main Stage last start and has had a break between runs. Draws beautifully for Luke Currie and I can’t see why it’s a bigger price in the market than Main Stage. ESHTIRAAK and SWEET MISCHIEF the blowouts.
TIP: Cliff’s Edge
Race 5
Keen on two runners here. Really want to be backing SAMOVARE; just forget she went around last start in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes when she led and was forced to go way too quickly in front. Two starts ago she was huge behind Harlem, who is a legitimate Caulfield Cup chance. Back down in grade and down on the minimum weight, she’s very hard to beat today and rates as David Hayes’ best chance on the card. ASSIGN needed the run first up and ran well behind Winx last start. Has a good record at the track and a good record at the distance, and third up from a spell he will be ready to fire. Hugh Bowman booked to ride for Team Williams is a strong pointer. I’ve got those two clearly ahead of the rest but I would say that Kiwia has had a typical Weir lead-up run. He ran in the Murtoa Cup last start carrying 60kg and settled last before running home strongly to finish 3rd. Back down to 54kg today with Damian Lane taking over from Harry Coffey, and he just keeps stepping up when they rise in grade. No surprise to see him win this. Happy to take on Spectroscope, backing Samovare with a saver on Assign and Kiwia.
TIP: Samovare
Race 6
Four horses I think could win this. Happy to be with DANISH TWIST who has had the two runs in Sydney and finished 4th behind Daysee Doom and Dixie Blossoms last start. Those two horses have since gone on to quinella another race in Sydney so the form is strong. She comes into this third up from a spell, where she’s got two wins and two placings from five starts. Down to 54kg and a definite winning chance if she’s at her best. I’ll also be backing ULMANN who was fair first up over 1200m and is now ready to win up to 1400m. Keen Array has franked the form from that first up race and with Damian Lane on from the good draw he can feature in the finish. GRANDE ROSSO has a great record at the track and distance and drops from Group 1 company. Drawn well and Craig Williams goes back on board so he rates highly back to Group 3 grade. The smokey is ALL OUR ROADS who is a former Kiwi that won a Group 2 over 1600m. Resumed first up in Sydney and Kerrin McEvoy was keen to ride him that day but was forced to ride a stablemate. He takes the ride today after the horse finished 3rd in his first run in Australia, and on his best form he would probably win this. The queries are the awkward draw and whether he is now looking for 1600m. Taking on Eckstein.
TIP: Danish Twist / Ulmann EW
Race 7
Competitive race. SUPER TOO ran 55.70 seconds two starts ago over 1000m at Randwick and has won five from six at the distance. She’s absolutely flying and drops down to 53kg so from barrier 3 she will jump straight to the front and try to run them off their feet. Winona Costin is booked for the ride, however, which is a significant downgrade from Blake Shinn. SNITTY KITTY is the one I want to be with. She returned in brilliant style with an all-the-way win over 1100m at this track first up. She carried 60kg on that occasion and performed better than trainer Henry Dwyer expected. That tells me she can improve at her second run back here and with only 53kg on her back she gets a big drop in weight. She will sit outside Super Too from the barrier and I think she’s a great winning chance. CRYSTAL DREAMER is the value in the race at $18. He failed in Adelaide last start but pulled up lame so there were excuses. Look back to his run first up behind Voodoo Lad, who is a Group 1 horse. From the good draw he will box seat behind the good tempo and he’s another with a terrific record at the distance. Taking on PROPERTY who I feel may just need the run off a lengthy spell. He’s won a trial leading into this and is being aimed at better races throughout the Spring but it’s hard to know how forward he will be for this race and if he’s anything below his best he might struggle to pick them up over the short course. BADAJOZ continues to race well and can be included.
TIP: Snitty Kitty (Best Bet) / Crystal Dreamer EW
Race 8
See our Caulfield Cup Preview & Betting Tips here!
Race 9
Another incredibly tough race with several winning chances. FOXPLAY is the class runner of the field and drops from Group 1 races behind Winx and Happy Clapper. She maps perfectly from barrier 4 but my query with her is that Hugh Bowman jumps off to ride RAVI. Ravi flashed home last start after drifting back to last on the turn. She was a moral beat and should be undefeated this prep. She’s flying but from barrier 17 she’s got a tough task on her hands to win this. The same can be said for SILENT SEDITION from barrier 18. Her record second up and at the track and distance is outstanding but she will need everything to go her way from the carpark draw. SAVANNA AMOUR has won two on the bounce at Group 3 level and led all the way last start over 1200m at this track. Steps up to 1400m now which is a distance she’s won her only start at. She will need to get across early from the wide barrier but if she does she will be tough to run down. NOW OR LATER improved lengths last start to win in Group 2 company over 1400m at Caulfield. Hard to see where she maps from barrier 11 today but if she’s improved on her last start performance then she will give this a real shake. SHILLELAGH should have won first up at Randwick but was badly held up in the straight. She’s won three from four when second up from a spell and she looks a good each way price with Joao Moreira booked to ride. SWAMPLAND is another that looks well over the odds at $19. She’s flying and should have won at Group 2 level last start but was desperately unlucky. Draws to get the perfect run and there’s no reason she can’t feature in the finish here. PETITION a chance if she gets a run and GLOBAL GLAMOUR is too good to leave out. Backing Now Or Later, Savanna Amour, Shillelagh and Swampland.
TIP: Shillelagh EW / Swampland EW
Race 10
FUHRYK has been poor in two runs back from a spell this time in but there may have been excuses with David Hayes saying she burnt off some part of her hoof. They’ve given her a month between runs to help her recover from that and he’s expecting a completely different mare to turn up. If she rediscovers her best form she will win this, because she’s got Group 1 ability and this isn’t the strongest of fields. NIETA ran 3rd to Redzel two starts ago and wasn’t beaten all that far. That form obviously stacks right up given Redzel won the Everest, but at the price I just think she’s a touch short. Draws well and Bowman takes the ride but I’d rather be on Fuhryk here. CONCEALER is a talented mare that returns from a long spell. She ran first up from a spell of the same length last prep and ran 2nd on that occasion so I wouldn’t dismiss her. CRYSTAL FOUNTAIN is undefeated but her last win was in a BM70 so she’d have to have improved to beat a couple of these proven mares. No doubt she has talent but I’ll be letting her go around without my money today.
TIP: Fuhryk
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
