After a long off season and some cyclone chaos, the AFL returns on Friday night with a blockbuster between the Swans and the Hawks. Can Sydney bounce back from their Grand Final nightmare? Or will Hawthorn ride their momentum from 2024 into the new season? We bring you our thoughts, analysis, and best bets for the season opener below!
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Sydney vs Hawthorn
Location: SCG – Sydney
Date: Friday, 7th March
Time: 7:40pm AEDT
Odds: Sydney (1.85) vs Hawthorn ($1.95)
Line: Sydney -4.5
Points: 170.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Dabble. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
It initially wasn’t set to be the season opener, but with the two fixtures in Queensland postponed due to Cyclone Alfred, Sydney and Hawthorn will kick off the season. The weather will still impact this clash with heavy rain and wind forecasted on Friday in the Harbour city.
It hasn’t been an ideal off season for the Swans with a mounting injury list making their quest for redemption even more difficult. Errol Gulden will miss multiple months with an ankle injury, captain Callum Mills is out for a month with a plantar fascia tear, Logan McDonald is out for 5 weeks with an ankle injury, Harry Cunningham will miss 5 weeks with a foot injury and Robbie fox is out for 6 weeks with a calf injury. On top of that Brodie Grundy (knee) and Tom Papley (ankle) will have to pass fitness tests to be available on Friday.
Hawthorn are in a near opposite scenario, with one of the smallest injury lists in the competition. Changkuoth Jiath (hip), Calsher Dear (back) and Mitch Lewis (knee) are the only key Hawks players that will be unavailable for Opening Round.
Although plenty of negativity has surrounded the Swans, it’s important not to lose sight of how good they were last season. Sydney were the number one ranked scoring team in the AFL last season, ranking 1st for scores from turnover, 1st for scores from forward half and 3rd for scores from stoppages.
Hawthorn were the sixth best defence in the competition in the 2024 home & away season, holding opponents to 76.65 points per game. The Hawks have scope to improve in this space given they’ve bolstered their defensive stocks with Tom Barrass and Josh Battle.
The Hawks were one of the best sides in the competition at moving the ball from their back half and creating scoring opportunities last season, however that will be a difficult way to generate scores on Friday given the dimension of the SCG and conditions that will be on offer.
Sydney have had the wood over the Hawks in recent seasons, winning five of their last six games against Hawthorn. The last three games have seen the Swans win by margins of 76, 81 and 41 points. This game clearly won’t be as one sided given the Hawks improvement, but there are some scars that Sydney have left on Hawthorn in recent seasons.
The conditions do favour the Swans who play the SCG so well, with their experienced big body midfielders set to be the difference in this clash against the young Hawks. It’s going to be tough for Hawthorn to play their brand of football in these conditions, and the experienced Swans outfit will grind out a close win at home.
Sydney to Win
$1.85 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
Throughout the 2025 AFL season we’ll be putting together a fun same game multi for every match at BoomBet using their BetShare feature.
To follow our multi, just click on the BoomBet BetShare button below and our same game multi selections will be added straight into your bet slip on BoomBet. You can then enter how much you wish to wager, and with a single click, your bet has been placed!
Jai Newcombe 25+ Disposals: Jai Newcombe had a stellar end to 2024, recording 30+ disposals in 5 of his last 6 games to finish the season. Newcombe averaged 29 disposals per game across the last 8 games of 2024, and will be in the coalface at a wet SCG on Friday.
Chad Warner Anytime Goal Scorer: Chad Warner had a career best year in front of goal last season, kicking 35 goals in 2024. Warner hit the scoreboard in 20 of his 25 games last season, and has kicked 3 goals in his last 3 games against Hawthorn. With no Gulden in the side, Sydney will need Chad to hit the scoreboard on Friday.
Under 170.5 Total Points: Given the conditions expected on Friday night thanks to the weather on the eastern seaboard, this game will likely be a low scoring affair. With the SCG being a small ground, this game will likely be a slog, and points will be at a premium.
SGM Odds: $3.70 at BoomBet
