Round 11 in NBL25 is a busy one with eight games across four days (Thursday-Sunday), beginning with a double-header on Thursday night. We had a cracking round with our tips last weekend where we went 6-1 for +6.64 Units, taking us to 45-30 and +12.5 Units for the season. Let’s hope we can back it up again in Round 11 as we present our best bets for each game below!
And if you're looking for a new site to bet on basketball this season, then look no further than SlamBet. They live and breathe basketball at SlamBet! Click on the banner below to join today!
NBL25 Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand Breakers vs Melbourne United
Thursday 5:30pm AEDT, Wolfbrook Arena
Tasmania JackJumpers vs Cairns Taipans
Thursday 7:30pm AEDT, MyState Bank Arena
The JackJumpers have revived their season thanks to three consecutive wins and are now back in the hunt in NBL25. They found themselves in a dog fight against the undermanned 36ers in Round 10 but were able to come away with a much-needed road win, snapping a two-game skid on their travels. Still, the JackJumpers haven’t looked at their best despite ticking over the win column in recent weeks, and we’re all still waiting for the reigning champs to really click into gear.
The Taipans suffered yet another loss last weekend when falling by six points at home against the Kings. That makes it nine straight losses for the Snakes since starting the season 3-1 and full of optimism. The good news is Taran Armstrong looked back to his best post FIBA break which is vital for their chance of success moving forward. He had a game-high 28 points against the Kings and connected on three triples.
Although the JackJumpers are on a 3W streak and the Taipans a 9L streak, I see this as a closer contest than it’s currently priced. The Snakes have only been blown out a couple of times during their current run and now have all their key pieces back fit and healthy. On top of that, the JackJumpers rarely blow teams out due to their limited capabilities on offence, so I’m happy to be with the Snakes at the line here.
Taipans +7.5
$1.92 (1.5 Units)
Brisbane Bullets vs Adelaide 36ers
Friday 7:30pm AEDT, Brisbane Entertainment Centre
The Bullets will be eyeing off a bounce back game on Friday night after being beaten convincingly by the Wildcats in Round 10. The good news is the Bullets return home where they were last time winners when James Batemon dropped 51 points. The Bullets have five players named on the official NBL injury list although the timeframes give away very little. However, Tyrell Harrison trained midweek and is expected to return to the starting lineup on Friday night.
The 36ers were without both Kendric Davis and Montrezl Harrell against the JackJumpers last weekend, as they served the first game of their two and three-game (respectively) suspensions. And while they put up a solid fight at home, they came away with a four-point loss. In more brutal news, DJ Vasiljevic has been diagnosed with a significant hamstring injury and is expected to remain out until the new year. This means they’ll now be without their top three leading scorers on Friday night.
If both teams were at full strength, then the 36ers would likely be starting this game as favourites even on the road. However, down their three best players, it’ll be the Bullets who are the overwhelming favourites. And while I’m not the biggest believer in the Bullets in NBL25, I expect them to have too much firepower for the severely undermanned 36ers in this one.
Bullets -6.5
$1.91 (2 Units)
Perth Wildcats vs Illawarra Hawks
Friday 9:30pm AEDT, RAC Arena
New Zealand Breakers vs Sydney Kings
Saturday 5:30pm AEDT, TSB Arena
After starting the season in hot form with seven wins from their first 10 games, the Breakers have hit a bit of a road block with three losses in a row. The theme throughout their current skid has been a lack of efficiency on the defensive end, as they’re giving up 110 points per contest, compared to their season average of 89. Teams have been able to go to work on them in the paint due to their lack of defensive big men, and there’s no easy solution for that going forward.
The Kings put in two solid performances in their return from the FIBA break last weekend. They began with a six-point win on the road against the Snakes before coming up three points short against United in Melbourne. The Kings remain on the road in Round 11 and are currently 5-5 on their travels this season. Overall, they sit fourth on the ladder but can finish Saturday in third spot with a win in this one.
The Breakers are seriously out of form right now and will welcome arguably the most talented club in the competition to New Zealand on Saturday night. The Kings are also playing solid basketball at the moment and their stars are all starting to fire. I like the Kings to hand the Breakers another sizeable loss in this one.
Kings -4.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Cairns Taipans
Saturday 8:00pm AEDT, John Cain Arena
The Phoenix recorded another very strong win under Coach King last weekend, knocking off the talented Hawks by three points at John Cain Arena. That’s now 3/3 on their home deck under their new coach, and they’ll be playing at JCA again on Saturday night. The Phoenix have also now won six of their past nine games and are starting to make their move up the standings, and they can even finish the round in the top six if results fall their way.
The Taipans just can’t find a win at the moment and enter Saturday’s slate on a whopping 10-game losing streak. This comes after they started the season 3-1 and were full of optimism. Despite recent struggles, Taran Armstrong has been on fire with 28 and 29 points in his past two games. The big issue is the inconsistent play of Rob Edwards who has had far too many poor games recently, and an uptick in form from him is key to the club turning it around.
This is probably my least favourite game to bet on in Round 11 and one which I’m not looking to invest much into. The Phoenix are clearly the deserving favourites and should be winning on current form, but the Snakes do have enough talent to be right in this if it can all come together.
Phoenix -5.5
$1.90 (0.5 Units)
Melbourne United vs Brisbane Bullets
Sunday 2:30pm AEDT, John Cain Arena
Melbourne United continue to dominate in NBL25 and enter their second game of Round 11 on a five-game win streak, and they’ve also won eight of their past nine. They sit three wins clear at the top of the standings and also have by far the best percentage. United’s first game of Round 11 was in New Zealand on Thursday night where they won by 27 points and kept the Breakers to a total of just 70.
The Bullets were able to bounce back from their 28-point loss against the Wildcats with a strong 19-point home win against the 36ers last start. They’ve now won two in a row on their home floor but have also lost two on the spin on the road. The Bullets remain in second last spot on the ladder but can jump up to eighth with a win in this one.
United are clearly the much better team and their chances of winning on Sunday increase further with home court advantage also at play. They’ve won five of their past six at John Cain Arena and will likely add another win to that tally here. From a betting perspective, I fancy United to keep the Bullets to under 89.5 points. They were at their stingy best against the Breakers on Thursday and as long as they bring a similar intensity and focus here, then they’ll comfortably keep the Bullets under their team total line.
Bullets Total Under 89.5 Points
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Adelaide 36ers vs Perth Wildcats
Sunday 4:30pm AEDT, Adelaide Entertainment Centre
It’s a cracking game we have on our hands to close out Round 11, with the 36ers hosting the Wildcats at the Adelaide Entertainment Centre. The 36ers are currently on a three-game skid and most recently lost to the Bullets by 19 points. Meanwhile, the Wildcats lost their recent home game against the Hawks which put an end to a mini two-game win streak.
Both clubs will be without key players for this one; for the 36ers, DJ Vasiljevic won’t return until the new year with a hamstring injury, while Montrezl Harrell still has one game left of what was a three-game suspension. The good news is Kendric Davis is free to return after missing the last two games with suspension. For the Wildcats, Keanu Pinder will miss again with illness and Kristian Doolittle will sit out with a groin injury.
Davis returning is massive for the 36ers and he’ll be orchestrating the offence once again. The 36ers were unbeaten at home until he missed their last home game against the JackJumpers. On the flip side, the Wildcats have lost their past four road games by an average margin of 14.5 points. With all things considered, I’m surprised to see the Wildcats priced as the short favourites here and am happy to side with the home underdogs.
36ers to Win
$2.65 (1 Unit)
