Another successful AFLW home and away season has come and gone, and just eight teams remain in the hunt for the ultimate glory. Round 10 was full of cracking matches, some of which were upsets, but we still finished slightly ahead of the ledger to take us to +12.76 units for the season. Let’s see how we go this weekend as we present to you our best bets for all four matches in Week 1 of the 2024 AFLW Finals!
AFLW Finals 2024 Week 1 Betting Tips
North Melbourne vs Adelaide
Friday 7:15pm AEDT, IKON Park
A scintillating home and away season by the Kangaroos saw them finish undefeated and on top of the AFLW ladder. Their lone ‘blemish’ was a draw against the Cats in Round 2, but aside from that it’s been nothing short of pure domination. Of course, the Kangaroos are yet to lift the premiership cup in this competition, so until they do that there will always be a question mark hanging over their head.
Another top four finish for the Crows gives the 3x premiers another legitimate shot at glory in 2024. It certainly wasn’t their best home and away season with a number of slip-ups along the way, but they’ve still done enough to earn themselves a double chance. In important injury news for the Crows, star forward/midfielder Danielle Ponter is a ‘test’ as she nurses an ankle injury.
These clubs faced each other only two weeks ago and what a cracking match it was, with the Kangaroos coming away with an eight-point win on enemy soil. That made it back-to-back wins in this matchup for the Kangaroos, and they head into this clash as the deserving favourites as a result. And while there will always be question marks about the Crows ability to win big matches until they do just that, they’ve never been as well positioned as they are now to make a big statement.
North Melbourne -12.5
$1.88 (1 Unit)
Fremantle vs Essendon
Saturday 7:00pm AEDT, Fremantle Oval
A gutsy home and away campaign for the Dockers has seen them earn themselves a home elimination final, which not many pundits tipped coming into the 2024 season. Of course, it could’ve been even better had they not dropped a sitter against the lowly Blues in mid-October, but it’s still been a strong season for the Dockers considering the amount of injuries to key players they’ve had to contend with.
Speaking of injuries to key players, what a big blow the Bombers copped last outing with Bonnie Toogood going down with an ankle injury that has now ruled her out for the rest of this season. The Bombers skipper has been cruelled by injuries all campaign and leaves a big hole in their forward line. Still, the Bombers managed to sneak into the eight despite their best player only playing a couple of games, so they’ll still have confidence that they can put up a fight on Saturday night.
These teams met way back in Round 1 where the Bombers started as clear favourites on their home deck; however, it was the Dockers who absolutely blew them off the park that day to finish 43-point winners (64-21). The Dockers have home ground advantage on their side on this occasion and have also been in the far better form. I expect them to record another relatively comfortable win here.
Fremantle -9.5
$1.91 (2 Units)
Hawthorn vs Brisbane
Sunday 1:05pm AEDT, IKON Park
Who saw this season coming from the Hawks? Never in club history had they made the finals in the AFLW, yet here they are with a home qualifying final thanks to a stellar 10-1 home and away season. The Hawks have reeled off eight wins on the spin, with their only loss coming against the Crows back in mid-September. However, due to their low finish a season ago, the Hawks haven’t played a lot of the top sides, so their record and ladder position could be a touch inflated – something to keep in mind.
The Lions got their premiership defence off to a horrible start when they copped a 44-point drubbing by the Kangaroos in Round 1. Perhaps that served as a bit of a wakeup call, as they’ve lost only one match since en route to a 9-2 record and third-place finish. The Lions are now well-poised to try and become the first team in AFLW to go back-to-back, and have a clean bill of health to aid their chances.
These clubs didn’t meet in the home and away season and have only played twice in their history, with the Lions winning both games by an average margin of 40.5 points. Clearly, the Hawks are a much better team this season but I still think they don’t deserve to be a near 50-50 chance in the H2H market. The Lions have experience on their side, particularly in these big matches, and it would be a big surprise if they’re to be knocked off by the young Hawks on Sunday.
Brisbane to Win
$1.78 (2.5 Units)
Port Adelaide vs Richmond
Sunday 3:05pm AEDT, Alberton Oval
Port Adelaide have been another one of the big improvers this season and earned themselves a maiden finals berth on the back of their efforts. It wasn’t all smooth sailing, particularly in their first five games where they secured just one win; however, the Power have stormed home in the back half of the season with six straight wins to earn themselves a home elimination final.
The Tigers have had a roller coaster type of season filled with streaks, both good and bad. They’re currently on one of their bad streaks which sees them winless in their last three games, and for that reason they missed out on the opportunity to play host in the first week of finals. Still, the Tigers have shown the ability to match it with the best teams in the competition at stages this season, so they’ll be confident their best footy will stack up in the pressure of finals.
The Power had a soft draw in the home and away season due to their poor finish in 2023, and that’s the reason why they’re the underdogs against the Tigers despite finishing higher and beings the hosts on Sunday. The Tigers have superior talent and a lot more experience in big games, and I expect that to be on full display in this clash.
Richmond -6.5
$1.87 (1.5 Units)
