Welcome to the final round of the 2024 AFLW season! Action in Round 10 will begin on Friday night with Geelong vs Adelaide, and will conclude on Sunday night with Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs. Seven more fixtures take place in between those two, and we have you covered with our best bets for all games below. We landed 8/9 of our tips last weekend to take us to +12.1 units for the season, so let’s see if we can finish the home and away season with a bang!
AFLW Round 10 Betting Tips
Geelong vs Adelaide
Friday 7:15pm AEDT, GMHBA Stadium
The Cats backed up their stellar win against the Lions two weeks ago with a dominant performance against the Eagles in Perth last weekend. They took down the Eagles by 33 points to make it three wins from their past four games. More importantly, the Cats remain a mathematical chance to play finals, needing a win on Friday night as well as a couple of other results to go their way.
The Crows came up short in their blockbuster matchup with the unbeaten Kangaroos last weekend, losing by eight points at home. That loss put an end to their two-game win streak, although they remain in fourth spot on the ladder. The equation is simple for the Crows – win on Friday night to lock in a top four spot, or lose and almost definitely miss out on the double chance.
The Cats had a disastrous first half of the season but have been storming towards the finish line. Their win against the Lions two starts back will give them enormous confidence against the Crows here. And while they may not come away with the four points, I like their chances of getting close enough to cover the spread.
Geelong +10.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Melbourne vs Collingwood
Saturday 1:05pm AEDT, IKON Park
It’s do or die for the Demons on Saturday, with a win needed to keep their finals hopes alive. They currently sit in ninth spot on the ladder but can jump into eight with a win, before they’ll wait to see the outcome of the Blues vs Bombers match later on in the day.
The Demons fought hard but came up six points short against the Hawks last weekend, which put an end to their four-match win streak which included wins against the impressive Crows and the Tigers. And as a result of recent form they’ll head into this clash with the lowly Magpies as the huge favourites. It’s certainly a big game for the Dees, and I expect them to perform accordingly.
Melbourne -28.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Sydney vs West Coast
Saturday 3:05pm AEDT, Henson Park
An extremely tough season comes to an end for the Swans this Saturday afternoon. They were one of the fairy-tale stories last year when they claimed their maiden finals berth, but injuries and form struggles have seen them notch only two wins from 10 matches in 2024.
In contrast, the Eagles have enjoyed their most successful campaign in AFLW history, claiming four wins. All of those wins were secured in the first six rounds however, and they head into this game on a four-match losing streak.
I’m surprised to see the Swans listed as the favourites in this one despite being the home side. I think there’s some value in the Eagles in the H2H market and am happy to take them to get the job done.
West Coast to Win
$2.40 (1.5 Units)
North Melbourne vs Gold Coast
Saturday 5:05pm AEDT, Arden Street Oval
One of the most one-sided matches in the competition’s history is set to take place on Saturday when the Kangaroos play host to the Suns. The Roos are undefeated and have an outrageous percentage of near 300%, while the Suns have won just one game, sit second last on the ladder, and have a percentage of just 60%.
This is a match to get involved in the Roos goal scorer markets as there’s simply no value anywhere else. For me, I like backing in Alice O’Loughlin in a blowout game. She’s a tireless worker that will always give 100% no matter what the score, and she’s also a cracking kick for goal. I like her for 2+ in this one at juicy odds.
A. O’Loughlin 2+ Goals
$2.55 (1 Unit)
Carlton vs Essendon
Saturday 7:15pm AEDT, IKON Park
There’s everything to play for in this one for the Bombers in what’s the most important fixture of Round 10. The equation is simple, win and play finals, or lose and it’s season over. The positive for the Bombers is they come up against the Blues who aren’t a great outfit in 2024 and currently sit 14th on the ladder.
The Bombers rallied hard to split the points with the classy Tigers last weekend in what could prove to be a very important draw. The Bombers have been storming home in the back half of the year with only one loss from their past six outings, which was against the ladder-leading Kangaroos two games back.
It’s simply a massive game for the Bombers and you can expect their intensity levels to be at an all-time high. I’m happy to back in what I expect to be a very hungry footy club to win this by 3+ goals.
Essendon -17.5
$1.95 (2 Units)
St Kilda vs Brisbane
Sunday 1:05pm AEDT, RSEA Park
First up on Super Sunday is the Saints vs Lions in Melbourne. The Saints have had a poor second half of the season which will see them narrowly miss out on a finals berth once again. They’ve won only one game since starting the year 3-0, and suffered a poor one-point loss against the Bulldogs last start.
On the flip side, the Lions are giving themselves every chance of securing back-to-back premierships for the first time in AFLW history. They’re poised to finish in the top four and are still a live chance of top two if they win this match and the Hawks lose to the Tigers. With that carrot dangling in front of them, I like the Lions to record a big win here.
Brisbane -27.5
$1.88 (1 Unit)
Richmond vs Hawthorn
Sunday 3:05pm AEDT, Swinburne Centre
Arguably the biggest match of the round will take place second up on Super Sunday, with the sixth-placed Tigers taking on the second-placed Hawks. The Tigers can improve to fifth with a win, albeit likely only momentarily, while the Hawks can lock in an all-important top two spot if they’re to win.
The Tigers have made a habit of playing in close games, with four of their last five games being decided by 13 points or less, including a draw last start against the Bombers. In contrast, the Hawks have shown the ability to blow teams off the park and have four 6+ goal wins to their name this season.
The Hawks certainly have more to play for here and I expect them to be the more motivated outfit. They’ve been terrific all season and remain good value in this matchup.
Hawthorn -11.5
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Port Adelaide vs GWS
Sunday 5:05pm AEDT, Alberton Oval
The Power have had by far their best season in AFLW history and will be rewarded with their maiden finals berth as a result. They’ve notched six wins so far and are the overwhelming favourites to make it seven wins on Sunday night. The Power are currently riding an impressive five-match win streak, and most recently took down the lowly Suns by five goals.
Meanwhile, the Giants have had another season to forget and will be finishing in 16th no matter the result from this game. Their only win came way back in Round 1 against the Bulldogs, which means they’re winless in their last nine.
A win for the Power here gives them a legitimate chance of securing a home final, which is always great motivation for players. I expect them to be the much hungrier side and to win this very comfortably.
Port Adelaide -30.5
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs
Sunday 7:05pm AEDT, Fremantle Oval
The Dockers made it two wins in a row and locked in a finals berth with their 55-25 victory against the Giants last weekend. It should’ve been a much greater margin in the end, with their 7.13 hurting their percentage. Still, the Dockers are sitting in fifth spot on the ladder and have done enough to earn themselves a home elimination final.
The Bulldogs come into the final round riding a mini two-match win streak. They easily accounted for the Blues by 33 points two games back, before causing a big upset against the Saints last weekend when defeating them by one point. The Dogs now have four wins to their name, which is a great result considering how they began the year.
Despite recent efforts from the Dogs, I think there’s great value in the Dockers line here. They’re the far superior outfit and also have home ground advantage on their side. Take them to cover the 22.5 handicap here.
Fremantle -22.5
$1.91 (2 Units)
