The final round of the NRLW season is upon us and there are still 6 teams vying for a spot in the Top 4. The exciting on field action has made this one of the best quality seasons to date. Fans are benefitting and wanting more. Crazy and unpredictable results continued last week, increasing the challenge for punters each week. This is where Before You Bet steps in, aiming to make sense of each fixture this weekend and increase your viewing enjoyment by finding a winner or two.
NRLW Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips
Cronulla Sharks vs Wests Tigers
PointsBet Stadium – Thursday 19th September – 7:45pm (AEST)
The Sharks suffered their second consecutive loss last week, with their hearts broken by a 70th minute try to allow the Broncos to prevail 20-16. In a high-quality game, it was a battle of attrition between two talented teams. Having 54% possession and completing at 84% only meant so much though, as they were unable to covert this into points. The Tigers captured their first win of the season last week with a spirited 16-14 win over the Dragons. Startingly strongly, they held onto a 14-nil HT lead to just scrape home. The victory was even more impressive given they had just 46% possession and completed at just 72%. Defence was the difference and missing just 23 tackles and allowing only 3 line breaks gave them a winning chance.
The Sharks head into this game as favourites to halt their losing streak. This timely match should give them the confidence they need, ahead of the Finals, to be successful. It is surprising the Sharks are not shorter ($1.20 vs $4.40), with the most recent form of each team perhaps impacting this decision. It should be one-way traffic; as good and as spirited as the Tigers were last week, the Sharks are the superior team in all areas. Rather than go searching for value in the home side to win, the better option is to invest on the points market. With each side struggling to score points this season (Sharks 17ppg vs Tigers 12ppg), a low scoring contest appears likely.
Total Points Under 40.5
$1.85 (1.5 Units)
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Brisbane Broncos
Queensland Country Bank Stadium – Saturday 21st September – 1:30pm (AEST)
The Dragons season went from bad to worse last week, suffering a defeat to the winless Tigers. Dominating possession (54%) saw them control territory but they failed to turn their positive play into points, eventually defeated 16-14. The Broncos produced a stunning last second victory over the Sharks at home. In a tight match, they prevailed 20-16. The win was made more impressive by the fact that they were able to overcome an inferior share of possession (46%) and a horrible completion rate (67%).
The only likely outcome in this match appears to be a win to the visitors. They are strong favourites ($4.40 vs $1.18) and with many position and personnel changes, the Dragons appear unsettled. Perhaps the motivation of finishing the season on a positive will drive them to an improved performance, but their form makes this outcome highly unlikely. The Broncos have proven themselves in numerous circumstances this year and, in another game they should win, we are likely to see their best form ahead of the Finals. With the Broncos making a strong habit of scoring points (28ppg vs Dragons 20ppg) and conceding far less than their opponents (17ppg vs Dragons 23ppg), they are well placed to win this game by more than two converted tries.
Broncos 13+
$1.72 (1.5 Units)
North Queensland Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights
Queensland Country Bank Stadium – Saturday 21st September – 3:15pm (AEST)
The Cowboys tried hard last week but were overpowered by a stronger Roosters outfit. Starting strong, they failed to build on their 2 first half tries but tried hard with an 80% completion rate. They were always going to find it difficult missing 50 tackles and conceding 7 line breaks. It just about (still a mathematical chance) ends their 2024 campaign. The Knights made a statement with their 46-10 victory over the Titans. Needing a strong performance to get their season back on track, the 9-try display saw them dominate from start to finish. A 58% share of possession, 85% completion rate and 10 line breaks highlights their dominance.
The Knights are listed as favourites ($3.10 vs $1.36) with the Cowboys carrying a weaker squad into this week as the result of injuries. The visitors are well placed to succeed; they are relatively unchanged from last week and will be out to build on their strong performance last week. With the Finals ahead, expect their attacking flair to again feature. This spells trouble for the Cowboys. Not only do they score fewer points in attack (15ppg vs Knights 25ppg), but they have issues defensively, conceding far too many points (22ppg vs Knights 15ppg). This suggests that the line (8.5) on offer will not be enough. If the Cowboys are not careful, it could be an ugly end to the season.
Knights -8.5
$1.95 (2 Units)
Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans
CommBank Stadium – Sunday 22nd September – 1:30pm (AEST)
The Raiders failed to use their home ground to their advantage last week against the Eels, suffering an agonising 18-16 defeat. Fighting back from a 12-nil HT deficit, they had a slightly better share of possession (51%) and a better completion rate (74%) but couldn’t do anything with it. Missing 41 tackles for the contest hurt their cause. The Titans were dealt a reality check in a Grand Final rematch against the Knights, comprehensively defeated 46-10. In a sign of how far they have regressed, they were outclassed in every way. They made only 952m for the match and conceded 10 line breaks.
This is the hardest match of the weekend to pick. Given the other matches have relatively clear winners, this is probably a match which should be avoided. The odds have these teams close too, with the Titans listed as slight favourites ($1.95 vs $1.85). You could make a case for either winning this match; the home ground advantage should count for something, but the Titans are also a quality team on their day. With each struggling for consistency in 2024, it is preferred to invest around this game being a close contest…if not overlooked altogether.
Either Team by 10.5 Points or less
$1.85 (1 Unit)
Parramatta Eels vs Sydney Roosters
CommBank Stadium – Sunday 22nd September – 3:15pm (AEST)
The Eels managed to keep their slim Finals hopes alive with a narrow 18-16 road win against the Raiders. Needing a strong victory, they overcame several setbacks, including a 49% share of possession, 70% completion rate and making fewer total metres. It was yet another sign to the resilience of this team. The Roosters were clinical in their 24-12 victory over the Cowboys. The result was never in doubt as they controlled possession (54%), completed well (81%) and made 9.3m per carry. They will want to improve upon the 40 missed tackles though but still head into this weekend at the top of the competition.
The Eels will know their fate ahead of this game; there is every chance that a spot in the Finals will be unavailable to them. Nevertheless, they have proven this season that they are a gritty, determined team. The Roosters form in recent weeks appears to have only gotten stronger. They will be out to make another statement in this game and with the chance to secure a home Final on the line, expect another commanding performance. The line (11.5) should be covered, with the Roosters strong defence (19ppg vs 11ppg) providing the base for their attack to excel from.
Roosters -11.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
