Round 3 in the 2024 AFLW season should be another cracker with action beginning on Thursday night. We had another great weekend in Round 2 where we landed 6/9 tips for +6.7U, taking us to 12-6 and +11.5U for the season. Hopefully we can continue along this trajectory as we bring you our best bets for all Round 3 fixtures below!
Also, make sure to head over to our AFL Tips page regularly for our best bets for every AFLW round, as well as all AFL finals!
AFLW Round 3 Betting Tips
Western Bulldogs vs West Coast
Thursday 7:15pm AEST, Mission Whitten Oval
The Western Bulldogs were always going to struggle this season but no one thought they would be this bad. They’ve kicked one goal from their two matches combined and have a percentage of 12.7%. Ellie Blackburn has been fantastic in the middle but has basically no help around her.
West Coast were excellent in Round 1 but were a touch disappointing last weekend when they lost to the Bombers. Missed opportunities in front of goal was a killer, as was their poor start. However, they have an excellent opportunity to bounce back this weekend.
The Eagles should win this without too much trouble, but I’m not sure they have the scoring power to put up a huge total. The current line of 72.5 points seems a couple of goals too high in my opinion, particularly considering the Dogs have kicked one goal for the season to date.
Under 72.5 Points
$1.87 (1.5 Units)
Brisbane vs Collingwood
Friday 5:05pm AEST, Brighton Homes Arena
After a horror showing in the first match of their premiership defence, the Lions showed in week two that they’re still a serious outfit. Led by star midfielder Ally Anderson with 43 disposals (a new AFLW record), the Lions took care of the Demons by 18 points on enemy soil.
The Magpies suffered their second loss in as many weeks when they were put to the sword by the up-and-coming Hawks last weekend to the tune of 47 points. Inaccuracy in front of goal plagued them for the second game in a row and they’re now 7.19 for the season. On a positive note, Bri Davey returned after missing their opening match, although she was held to just 14 touches as she blew out the cobwebs.
This is a tough match betting wise and one where I’m not keen to invest too much into. The Lions were better last weekend but I’m still unsure they deserve to be 30+ point favourites. Although the Magpies have been very poor to date. With the Magpies unable to find their accuracy up forward and in likely dewy + windy conditions in Queensland, I don’t mind have a small play on the unders here.
Under 82.5 Points
$1.87 (1 Unit)
Sydney vs Richmond
Saturday 12:35pm AEST, C.ex Coffs International Stadium
After a winless season in 2022, the Swans made huge strides last season where they notched six wins and got their first taste of finals footy. However, their 2024 season took a turn for the worst last weekend when star player Chloe Molloy suffered an ACL tear. Molloy’s leadership and footballing ability leaves a big hole in this Swans side, and I worry for them going forward. We got our first look at the Molloy-less Swans last Sunday and they were soundly beaten by the Saints – a team they finished ahead of in 2023. On top of that, the Swans have opted to rest last year’s All-Australian ruckman in Ally Morphett who was clearly playing underdone in the opening two rounds.
The Tigers bounced back from their Round 1 upset loss against the Eagles with a strong 11 point win against the young and talented Giants last weekend. It was a strange game with only three Tigers having more than a dozen touches, yet their efficiency in their forward 50 was unmatched.
I like this matchup for the Tigers. They get the Swans without two of their best players in Molloy and Morphett and are also riding a wave of momentum after last weekend’s win. In saying that, I’m not totally sold on the Tigers this season so I’ll be somewhat conservative with my staking.
Richmond -4.5
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
Carlton vs Geelong
Saturday 2:35pm AEST, IKON Park
The Blues surprised me last weekend with a gusty one-point win over the Suns, although I’m still not sure if that says more about the Blues or the Suns just yet. Still, it was a great result after getting pummelled by the Hawks in Round 1. Maddy Guerin was one of the standouts and could’ve had a blinder had she kicked straight (1.3).
The Cats went into last weekend’s clash with the highly-fancied Kangaroos as the big underdogs yet managed to come away with a share of the points. It was a terrific performance after Round 1’s disappointing loss to the Dees. In less positive news, star midfielder Georgie Prespakis won’t play this week due to a quad injury which is a real shame because she looked ready to explode in season 2024.
The jury is still out on the Blues and what type of side they are this season, so I’m reluctant to invest too heavily in this clash. However, I like the trajectory the Cats have been on the past 12 months and they’ll be desperate to get their first win on the board. I think they win in a tight one here.
Geelong 1-24
$2.30 (1 Unit)
Port Adelaide vs Fremantle
Saturday 4:35pm AEST, Alberton Oval
The Power were expected to be one of the big improvers this season and it’s so far so good from two weekends of footy. They narrowly lost in their Round 1 Showdown against the powerhouse Crows before bouncing back with a mammoth win over the Bulldogs in Round 2. The Power have added a plethora of talented young mids in the last couple of drafts and now have some serious depth in that part of the ground, and I think they’re well-placed to make a legitimate push for finals this season.
The Dockers were unable to back up their surprise Round 1 win in Round 2 when they were soundly beaten by the Crows. The Dockers were destroyed in the middle of the ground and had absolutely no answer to the superstar that is Ebony Marinoff (31 disposals, 19 tackles). The Dockers have a few holes in the midfield they’re unable to fill with Bowers and Stannett out this season, and it’ll be interesting to see how they try and navigate that issue going forward.
I think the prices are wrong here. The Power, in 2024, are the better of the two teams in my opinion, at least from what I’ve seen throughout the preseason and the first couple of home and away matches. With home ground advantage also on their side, I’m keen to have a decent whack at the Power to Win.
Port Adelaide to Win
$2.30 (3 Units)
Adelaide vs Hawthorn
Sunday 1:05pm AEST, Thomas Farms Oval
The Crows made it two from two as they dismantled the Dockers last weekend, led by Ebony Marinoff who had a monster 31 disposals, 19 tackles, and a goal. The gun mid had plenty of help as well in the win as the Crows firmed as one of the key premiership fancies.
Similarly, the Hawks were fantastic last weekend when they tallied win number two in as many games. The Hawks dominated the Magpies in what was supposed to be a tight contest. Many thought the Hawks will be one of the big improvers this season and their early play has done nothing to deny those claims.
Bates was a late out last weekend but comes back into the side to face the Crows and certainly bolsters their chances of causing an upset. The Crows definitely need to be respected in the betting markets, but I can see the Hawks at least keeping things close.
Hawthorn +15.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Melbourne vs North Melbourne
Sunday 1:05pm AEST, Casey Fields
Melbourne had a lot of list turnover in the offseason and their chances of competing for the premiership in 2024 were certainly questioned, however they’ve been strong in the opening couple of rounds against tough opposition. The Dees began their campaign by taking down the Cats on their home deck before falling short against the Lions last weekend.
Last season’s runners-up in North Melbourne made a huge statement in Round 1 when they handed the Lions their biggest ever loss, although they were unable to back it up in Round 2 when they drew with the Cats. In positive news, they welcome become star forward Alice O’Loughlin after she served a one-match ban for a dangerous tackle.
The Dees have outperformed my early season expectations but I feel they’ll be up against it here. The Roos are back to full strength and should be able to negotiate the win in a tough and tight contest.
North Melbourne 1-24
$2.40 (1 Unit)
Essendon vs St Kilda
Sunday 3:05pm AEST, Windy Hill
The Bombers managed to bounce back after their opening round embarrassment with a strong win against the young Eagles in Round 2. They were on top in the midfield for the entire contest, led by Maddy Prespakis who finished with a game-high 27 disposals.
Meanwhile, the Saints look to be on a mission to play finals footy in 2024 after missing out by the smallest of margins last season. They’ve begun the season on fire, smashing the Suns by 54 points in Round 1 before taking care of the Swans by 16 points at home last weekend.
The Saints look to be the far better of the two teams this season and this is somewhat reflected in the odds. However, I still fancy the Saints to cover the small line on Sunday.
St Kilda -11.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
GWS vs Gold Coast
Sunday 5:05pm AEST, Manuka Oval
The Giants made a strong start to the season with a 63-point thumping of the Bulldogs, but were unable to back it up last weekend when they fell to the Tigers by 11 points. Last year’s Rising Star winner, Zarlie Goldsworthy continues to dominate for the Giants and has made a superb start to the season.
The Suns have arguably been the most disappointing team in the competition through the opening two rounds. After playing finals footy last year, it was expected by most to see another step forward for the Suns. They come into this clash 0-2 and were the favourite in both matches.
It should be a ripping game to finish Round 3 and on current form, it’s tough not to fancy the Giants in this one. They’ve been the better of the two sides so far in 2024 and it would be a surprise if they don’t win this.
